While the tropics have remained quiet with the only 3 named storms not reaching Hurricane strength, we are reaching peak Hurricane season and at least one tropical wave is starting to show signs of becoming the next tropical system of the Atlantic.
Currently located several hundred miles Southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, a strengthening system of low pressure associated with a vorticity maximum in the upper levels of the atmosphere continues to produce areas of convective showers and thunderstorms.
Satellite imagery shows increasing organization within the system and the region around the tropical wave is conducive to tropical development with weak shear profiles and plenty of moisture due to the monsoonal trough located in the area. Ocean temperatures in this region are warm and are actually running above normal for this time of year.
Current long range forecasts bring this system toward the north of the Carribean Sea close to the Bahamas where very warm waters could be very conducive to a strengthening tropical system. Anyone with interests along the Atlantic Coast should should monitor the development of this system over the coming week.
Two other Tropical waves located in the Atlantic basin, one directly in front of the system mentioned above and one over the Island of Hispanola, do not show signs of impending tropical development at this time.
Forecaster Robert Millette