Tropical Storm Danny is becoming better organized this evening as deep convective storms become better concentrated around the center of circulation, located at 11.2 North and 38.8 West, and rain bands have begun to form. Data from satellite passes and a nearby buoy are showing that Danny is intensifying rapidly with maximum sustained winds at 50 mph and the central pressure has now fallen to 1000 millibars, 8 millibars lower than the last advisory.
Tropical Storm force winds are now sustained in all 4 quadrants of Danny and winds are expected to continue to increase with Danny forecast to reach hurricane strength by early Thursday morning. Conditions around Danny are highly favorable for development, with light wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures, despite the dry air from the Saharan Air layer that continues to be in place to Danny’s north. The tropical wave moving ahead of Danny continues to keep enough moisture in the region to keep the driest air away from Danny. Danny continues to move West Northwest in a weakness in the Sub Tropical Ridge, but the trough creating that weakness is beginning to move North and will allow the ridge to strengthen again, forcing Danny towards the West. Long range models show Danny near Montserrat in the late Monday early Tuesday time frame.