No sooner does Tropical Storm Danny fizzle in the Eastern Caribbean than Tropical Storm Erika forms from the tropical wave that had been following behind Danny. Erika, currently located at 14.4 North and 47.7 West, has maximum sustained winds of 45 MPH and a Minimum Central Pressure of 1003 millibars. Erika is moving from the same area that developed Danny into a category 3 but won’t face the significant obstacles Danny faced moving forward. Erika has far more moisture to work with and thanks to Danny’s passing through the area, far less dry air.
Erika is expected to strengthen over the next few days as she is currently in an environment of weak wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. In a couple of day however, Erika will be impacted by increasing wind shear that will slow her development. I anticipate a track similar to Danny’s with Erika impacting the Windward Islands in the next couple of days before moving toward Puerto Rico. Tropical Storm Watches are now in effect for Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, Anguilla, Saba and St Eustatius.
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* St. Eustatius
Forecaster Robert Millette