Tropical Storm Erika Remains A Disorganized Threat

Despite her continued presence over warn ocean waters, Tropical Storm Erika continues to remain highly disorganized due to moderate to strong wind shear in the region.  Erika, currently located at 16.5 North and 63.8 West, has fluctuated back and forth between having her center exposed but strong winds and being surrounded by high intensity but poorly organized thunderstorms.  Currently with Maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and a minimum central pressure of 1006 millibars, which is up some from this morning.  You can see on the satellite image below that the center of the storm, seen just South East of Puerto Rico, is just outside the area of heaviest convection.  By tonight, expect this to change again as the convection strengthens during the diurnal maximum.

Tropical Satellite

While dry air is present in the region, it is to the North and East of Erika and she is showing good outflows into these regions as seen by the high level clouds streaming out.  This is preventing the dry air from really getting involved in her core.  The region she is moving into has plenty of moisture for Erika to work with so that does not seem like it will be a major issue for her going forward.

Water vapor

Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for

* Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Montserrat
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for
* Guadeloupe
* Dominican Republic from the northern border with Haiti eastward
and southward to Isla Saona
* southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands

The Tropical Storm Warning for Antigua and Barbuda has been discontinued as Tropical Storm conditions continue to move away from the Islands.  The Tropical Storm Watch on the Dominican Republic has been extended Southward to Isla Saona.

tracking map