Brutal Cold Is On The Way For The United States!

We are about to enter a very interesting period, and while I know that many of you like the cold, this next Arctic outbreak could be dangerous and even historic. I put out an article about a week ago and then one before that that basically restated that I thought that mid to late January going into February could end up being dangerously cold for the central and eastern U.S. While I have really been putting myself out on the line over these last few weeks, I am now getting a lot of forecast model support to back up what I saw coming several weeks ago. Like I said on the Facebook page, the GFS model did not handle the last Arctic outbreak that well in predicting this in the long-range, so I absolutely had no reason to believe that anything would be different this time. Yet again, many fell into the trap of using the GFS as their model of choice for their long-range forecast, and they got burned. See, weather and climate works in cycles, and you have to be able to see those cycles. If you miss that, then you’re left depending on a model that dictates your forecasts, and those forecasts can change A LOT! You’re at the mercy of the forecast models, and I try to never put myself in that situation.

Now that I’m getting the support of the forecast models and we’re much closer to the event, I want to show you what the models are predicting. In fact, if what the forecast models are predicting for the last week of January going into February comes to fruition, then we have a historic Arctic outbreak on our way that would give us brutal cold. The Canadian model also supports a big East Coast storm later in January, which I really think could happen. From the way things are starting to look, this cold pattern could lock in, which would continue into February, and we could also move into a very stormy pattern. Many of you have commented on the Facebook page (yes, I take the time to read almost all of your comments and messages) that you were disappointed that you didn’t get any snow with this last Arctic outbreak. I’m really thinking things will be different this time. No, I’m not saying that Miami, FL will get snow, but I do think many areas in the Southeast and up the East Coast will.

The pattern that is setting up is classic for extreme cold and storminess in the East and well-above average temperatures and dry conditions in the West. When you get this kind of ridging in the western U.S. and over Alaska and blocking over Greenland, the cold in the East is going to be brutal. A piece of the polar vortex is going to split and move south again (possibly further south than the last time) and be responsible for yet another brutal Arctic outbreak of cold air. I’m thinking that this cold air could end up even being more potent further south than the last time, so places even into Florida will end up with brutal cold. The biggest difference this time is that the cold will likely stay around for a long time, and ridging is going to prevent the polar vortex from re-establishing itself over the North Pole. In other words, this cold may not go anywhere for days, even weeks, and we could be setting up a pattern that has not been seen in decades.

Of course, there are some uncertainties, but I am highly confident that this cold blast is going to occur. I think the worst of the cold could be focused east of the Mississippi, but that will not be the only areas that are cold. I’m also watching what is currently occurring over the Bering Sea, and there are strong indications that this cold won’t go anywhere in February. While there will be some fluctuations, I really don’t see the eastern U.S. fluctuating back into a warmer pattern. You’re going to have your cold spells, and then you’re going to have your REALLY cold spells! Again, the East Coast needs to keep their eye on the potential for a big winter storm later in the month, and I will detail that more in another article.

Since the GFS has its act together for now as far as predicting the cold, I want to show you it’s ensemble. Most of its members have really cold air establishing itself over the eastern U.S., which is remarkable that we’re getting that kind of agreement. If it were just the operational model showing this, then I wouldn’t even bother showing it. The European and Canadian models are also in agreement with predicting very cold temperatures later in the month.

On January 22th, the GFS ensemble really establishes the cold over the eastern third of the nation.

Jan 22

Fast-forward to January 25th, and you still have really cold air over the eastern U.S.

jan 25

Then we move into January 28th, and things just look brutal!

Jan 28

Now, take a look at the European ensemble average temperature anomaly for January 26th through January 30th. This shows extreme cold! These are the expected temperature departures from average, and given that we’re in the heart of winter, this kind of cold would be very dangerous!!

Euro

Of course, I’ll continue to keep you updated! If I don’t have time to post on the site in the next couple of days, I’ll definitely be posting on the Facebook page. Please give it a like if you haven’t already.

  • dawn

    Snow for jax,fl?

  • Elizabeth

    i dont think for southern illinois not again looks mild to me maybe 2 more good snows then here comes spring and rain

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  • Marcie

    What is it looking like for southwestern Michigan? I teach in a small rural town and farmers here are saying it is going to be bad next week and February will be worse.

    • peepsie

      I’m in grand rapids and seeing a scary amount of purple up there for us…. Yikes!

  • Leigh Loden Spurlock

    I sure hope the southern power companies have implemented a plan. We are not use to such extreme weather.

    • Ronnie Garner

      Southern Company (Alabama Power, Georgia Power, Gulf Power, and Mississippi Power) will have adequate capacity for any cold snap. They also are the best in the business in restoring outages caused by ice / snow storms.

      • James Lawson

        Limestone County Alabama goes out when the wind blows. They are NOT equipped to handle this kind of a scenario.

  • FD

    Farmer’s Almanac says snow in middle Georgia on/around Jan 28th.. GFS sounds about right.

    • Kelly Robertson

      NOOO! Bite your tongue!!!!!!!!

  • Gary

    i live in central Florida,, i moved here from central Alabama to get away from the cold,,lol, but looks like its finally gonna catch up to me!!!! I for one mite actually enjoy it for a minute down here!! Specifically in Lakeland, fl.

  • swampfox26

    Do you have a similar set of diagrams for the Southern Hemisphere showing the brutal heat currently in Australia and possibly other countries south of the equator?

  • Carol Anne McManus Rubio

    friend just posted you and I am following from now on…good work. 🙂

  • Ruth Taylor

    Hi Matthew. I live in West Central PA (Cresson). When we experienced the cold spell earlier this month, it reminded me of North Dakota in 1983. I really disliked the cold back then. Age and time makes me dislike the cold even more. I really hope that your prediction doesn’t pan out. Good luck with your education. 🙂

  • Nick

    I teach outdoor adventure courses and do a lot of winter camping in northern WI and MN. My first cold trip was this season was -15 before this past thanksgiving and I have seen temps drop dramatically these past few weeks to -40F in parts with -60 wind chills! That’s a bit too cold for even me to be out. However, i did go out the weekend before new years and the temp outside my hammock read -26.6F. That’s a new low for me. Thanks for keeping us up to date!

    • vera

      – 22 celcius is not dangerous…………. In norway we have this every winter for several days and weeks. I remember walking to school with my father and it was minus 42 celcius. Wear wool. Turn up the electricity and eat warm food. We have well insolated housers here though. I hope you have also. I have slept in a tent in the snow in minus 50 to 70 F – you need a good sleepingbag though.

  • c m

    Do everyone a favor and try to predict weather that is not bad news or something. We create our own realities here and thoughts multiply. You and the other predictors keep manifesting horrible weather ~~~*143*333*~~~

    • mgentry77

      That is the dumbest reply I have ever read. Guess you believe that prayer cures cancer too.

      • kaylee

        well I have to say prayer healed my son from glioma cancer….. look it up they usually don’t live past 18 months so YAY!!!!!!!!! God and prayer do work..

        • Derp

          Wow! Really? And you never even had to call the doctor or anything?

          • southernbelle

            c m and mgentry77, your both smoking crack, no prayer dosent cure cancer, but God does, and as far as the weather goes, the guy is just studying weather patterns and telling you that weather runs in cycles, and according to history and cycles, this is what to expect to happen. Now if you don’t want to freeze your ass off you better get to praying that God provides you with the ability to keep from it, and from what I can see from the charts , HE HAS. Get your coats out and make sure you have gas for your generator in case you lose power. Just Sayin

          • wareaglesoul

            BAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAA!

          • wareaglesoul

            BAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAA!

      • debbyb

        Amen kaylee!!! Through prayer anything is possible. Have faith! It may not get answered the way you want it to, but it will get answered 🙂

      • Richard Dean

        Yea I do..I have seen God do a lot of miracles . My Father passaway 2010 of cancer but we all prayed for him about his lung cancer and his lung cancer was b9 And 1 1/2 years later he passed away with a brain tumor. But God is not going to change the weather When r Governments Changes r jet streams all the time thats y we have all these diseases And if you have ever read the Bible it tells you that man will destroy earth and guess what we all r sure doing a good job of it and if u read it it also says that there will be diseases that man will not cure so …. I will say a prayer for you that u find closer in your life and find him. Because he is a lovable and merciful God and when we all have gone we will see y r life was the away it was … May God bless you and show u that He is the almighty God

    • The Happy Avenger

      May I have a puff of whatever you’re smoking?

    • debbyb

      Really??? I myself would like the opportunity to be prepared for something like that whether or not it comes to fruition!

  • Randy

    reminds me of the movie Day after tomorrow where everything instantly turned to ice as a polar vortex moved across the United States.

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  • tonya

    really not as bad as i thought cause it ic in celcius

    • jake

      celcius makes those numbers worse

  • Volltan

    Looks like AZ will be OK

    • regnaD kicN

      Yeah! Whew!

    • Barb Ayers Sullivan

      Shhhhh, please don’t encourage them. They won’t be able to get back home with all their airports closed. Then, they will all cause riots at the airports. Because of course, airlines are horrible and they are THE cause of ALL flight cancelling bad weather. 😉

  • Wes LaFleur

    Could someone please verify what the numbers mean on the charts shown leading up to January 30th??? Surely that isn’t temperatures, where it has Indiana in an area with a number of -312. If someone could reply soon, that’d be appreciated.

    • Kelly Robertson

      look at the last graphic and use the numbers to find out the temp in celsius then convert to Fahrenheit.
      Acording to what I see and where you live, you could be looking at temps from 3.2* or as low as -22*. Better get some mittens!!!

      • Vera

        – 22 is not dangerous…………. In norway we have this very often. I remember walking to school with my father and it was minus 42 celcius. Wear wool. Turn up the electricity and eat warm food. We have well insolated housers here though. I hope you have also.

    • Valnbama

      Say the graph on the right shows your color zone being -10…. that means that is will be approximately 10 degrees below what the normal low for this time of year. If it’s normally 20 degrees… it will be closer to 10 degrees.

    • Valnbama

      Say the graph on the right shows your color zone being -10…. that means that is will be approximately 10 degrees below what the normal low for this time of year. If it’s normally 20 degrees… it will be closer to 10 degrees.

  • Ann

    In W.Va is their going to be snow with this

  • rick

    when i was a kid we called it winter

  • Kelly Robertson

    I hope that Matthew is WRONG!!!! That is too cold for us all!

  • spudd1

    What about Idaho?

  • moovova

    Matthew…I’m guessing you’re eventually gonna tell us it’ll be hot in Georgia in July.

  • Renee Mashburn Hogue

    I live in Trinity , North Carolina.. What does it look like for snow and cold here???

  • Roberta

    I live in West Virginia and was wanting to know if this is going to hit us here also

  • MayFong

    They added Purple for extreme cold and extreme heat in a lot weather maps for different countries…

  • Carolyn VanZorge

    imagine that!! it is cold in the winter, and, in fact, it STAYS cold thru put the winter. my, oh my

  • Mel Malone

    MY GOODNESS !!!! Are we turning into wimps ? Media Hype in Action !!! Here in Upstate New York we have always had weeks of -20 and tons of snow !!! I’m from Alaska and we should be talking more about the warm balmy winters they’ve been having lately

    • vera

      I agree! – 22 celcius is not dangerous…………. In norway we have this every winter for several days and weeks. I remember walking to school with my father and it was minus 42 celcius. Wear wool. Turn up the electricity and eat warm food. We have well insolated housers here though. I hope you have also. I have slept in a tent in the snow in minus 50 to 70 F – you need a good sleepingbag though.I icebathe most weekends in the se in temperatures from 30 F to 45 F .. But – old people have died if they have noone to look after their heating for them. important to check.

      • tenordbye

        Where do you live? Norway? It’s cold there? I think I got the point after reading that THREE TIMES. Norway. Cold. Wool. Got it.

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  • Donna Lewis Reeves

    I know that things have changed dramatically over the years especially in the past 30+ years (1983) A snow storm struck the southern US States, In particularly, GA for my concern. Do you have a way of looking at the maps used back then 1983 in order to compare them to the GFS models that are available today to show if there is any similarities?

    • Kelly Robertson

      Awesome request! I remember that storm as a little girl.

  • Bobbie Bruce Myers

    I live in south Louisiana and last week it got down to 16 degrees here which had been the coldest since before I was bore and that’ 42 years.

    • Gail

      I live in NW Ga and I for one dread all of this cold weather! We’re just not prepared for those types of temps! Thanks for your hard work. Love this site and your FB page!

  • Bobbie Bruce Myers

    I live in south Louisiana and last week it got down to 16 degrees here which had been the coldest since before I was bore and that’ 42 years.

  • Gail

    I live in NW Ga and I for one dread all of this cold weather! We’re just not prepared for those types of temps! Thanks for your hard work. Love this site and your FB page!

  • Ann

    Do you see any SNOW in our near future?!!!

  • ttscook

    Well here it is 1/27, and 23/18 is forecast for tomorrow in SE Virginia along with a winter storm watch for 3+ inches of snow.. Well done! Right on the mark!