Daily Weather Forecast and Severe Weather Outlook for Tuesday, March 29, 2016

A quick look at the current and forecast weather events for the continental United States.

Here is a look at the current Surface Map.

Surface Map

and todays Forecast Map

Weather Forecast map

A powerful storm system is pulling out of the Northeast with snow and rain falling in Northern New England and Upstate New York. A shot of very cold air for this time of year will follow this storm with lows in the teens in Northern Maine and below freezing temperatures along the I-95 Corridor from Boston to Philadelphia. Most of the country is dominated by high pressure and generally warm with temperatures into the 60s and 70s throughout the plains as seen on this model analysis.

6 hour model

 

A weaker system in the Rockies will bring snow to the mountains in higher elevations and rain to the lower valleys. A marginal risk for severe weather exists in southeastern Wyoming and Western Nebraska with this system.

Warm air along the gulf coast could potentially lead to some spotty showers and thunderstorms across the gulf coast states with the greatest risk for severe weather being in Southern Florida along the cold front pushing south. Flash flooding will be an additional threat through the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Deep South through the beginning of April.

 

18 hour model

By Tuesday afternoon, only light snow remains from the Northeastern storm as it pulls into the Canadian Maritimes.  The cold front associated with this system will be across Southern Florida and will be triggering heavy rain showers and potentially severe thunderstorms. Snow will continue to fall in the higher elevations of the Rockies before the system there begins to move out into the plains.

 

36 hour model

By early Wednesday, the storm system moving into the plains will begin to deepen and drag a cold front across the plains. This will be the impetus of a severe weather threat later on Wednesday across Eastern portions of Texas, up through Nebraska into the Mississippi River Valley. This threat will continue to push East on Thursday with the greater threat across the Gulf Coast states from Louisiana to Alabama with a smaller risk up north towards Indiana and North Carolina.

 

Here is today’s Current Severe Weather Outlook,

Severe Outlook

 

Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 20,361 6,008,210 Miami, FL…Hialeah, FL…Fort Lauderdale, FL…Pembroke Pines, FL…Hollywood, FL…

 

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE

Southern portions of Florida, Southeastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle

 

***Severe Weather Analysis***

 

A mid/upper level low over the Great Basin will move east while a surface low develops over the Central High Plains in response to 1 mid-level vorticity max rotating through the base of the Western United States trough. A Dryline will extend southward through the Southern High Plains and a Pacific cold front will push eastward through the Desert Southwest and into the Southern Rockies overnight Tuesday.  Further East, A mid-level ridge will build into the Mississippi Valley concurrent with a shortwave trough exiting the northeast into the Canadian Maritimes.

Water Vapor Imagery taken overnight Monday shows a mid-level disturbance over the Western Gulf of Mexico. This feature is forecast to rapidly move to the east and reach the Florida Peninsula by the afternoon.  Dewpoints in the lower 70s located to the South of a nearly stationary cold front and normal day time heating will contribute to moderate buoyancy and CAPE values between 1500 and 2000 Joules per kilogram.  Ample high level outflow and local sea-breeze circulations may support to development of thunderstorms with hail and strong winds being the primary risks.  This threat will diminish late in the evening.

The warm moist flow in the plains will interact with the developing surface low over Eastern Colorado and lead to high based showers and thunderstorms over the Cheyenne Ridge. Steep Lapse rates and adequate deep layer shear may result in the stronger storms being capable of marginal hail and severe gusts during the late afternoon and early evening.

 

 

***This week’s Flood Risk***

Flood Risk

 

Yesterday’s Storm Reports

Storm Reports

 

 

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather

 

  • Marsha Galloway Anderson

    As a high school science teacher, I love these daily updates! I will use them in my classes every day. Thank you for the work you do to keep us informed!