Daily Weather Forecast and Severe Weather Outlook for Saturday, April 2, 2016

Rain begins to move out as severe weather comes to an end.  Snow makes its return to the Great Lakes and Northeast as unseasonably cold temperatures move in.

The current Surface Analysis

Surface map us

Today’s National Forecast

Weather Forecast map

A cold front will bring rain and thunderstorms to portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic this morning, before moving offshore by afternoon. The front remain across southern Florida this afternoon, keeping scattered showers and thunderstorms possible over the Florida Peninsula. Locally heavy rain will be possible in thunderstorms, but widespread heavy rain is not expected.

Meanwhile, a fast-moving low pressure system of Canadian origin will move across the Great Lakes today, bringing rain changing to snow for many areas as the system passes. The system will begin to move into the Appalachians and Northeast by this evening, and rain will mix with or change to snow across much of the Northeast Saturday night. The fast-moving and energetic nature of this system will also bring strong, gusty winds to a wide area from the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph are possible today from the Upper Midwest to the Ohio valley and central Appalachians. Tonight into Sunday morning, wind gusts up to 60 mph are possible from portions of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England. This low pressure system will quickly move out to sea on Sunday, with another, low pressure system crossing the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes in its wake. This second system will bring another round of rain and snow to many of the same areas of the Northeast Sunday night into Monday.

Across the West, high pressure will generally remain in control today, with most areas remaining dry. A few scattered thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon across the interior Northwest as a weak upper-level disturbance crosses overhead. Temperatures will be above average today for most of the western U.S., with afternoon high temperatures expected to be 10 to 20 degrees above average for many areas. By Sunday afternoon, things will begin to change across the Pacific Northwest as a cold front approaches, spreading rain and high elevation snow showers into the region through Monday.

***Current Model Analysis***

6 hour model

High pressure is dominating the West coast and mountain regions, the cold front over the east coast will finally move off shore and is bringing much colder air behind it with snow forecast in the great lakes region on two clipper systems.

18 hour model

By Saturday afternoon, a developing coastal system will keep the rain along the coast but the threat for thunderstorms and severe weather continue to diminish. Snow should move into the Upstate New York region as the change over begins behind a very strong cold front that will bring bitterly unseasonable cold to the North areas of the country except the west.

36 hour model

By early Sunday, rain along the New England coast has changed to snow for the major metro areas and a plowable snow should be expected in many of them. A second clipper begins to cross into the Great Lakes region and this system will bring addition snow to the Great Lakes and Northeast later next week.

***Current Severe Weather Outlook***

Severe Outlook

Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 30,165 10,124,633 Jacksonville, FL…Tampa, FL…St. Petersburg, FL…Orlando, FL…Gainesville, FL…

 

***Severe Weather Analysis***

…SUMMARY…

These system producing the severe weather we’ve had the past couple of days is still going strong and should produce some strong thunderstorms in Eastern NorthCarolina and Southeastern Virginia this morning. Later on, A few strong thunderstorms should occur across most of central Florida as well as portions of Indiana and Ohio this afternoon. The primary threat with these storms will be strong straight line winds.  Conditions do not look good for Tornadic activity.

***Analysis***

The strong cold front that has been bringing severe weather to the country will move off shore today with strong storms in North Carolina and Virginia this morning that should end around mid-day.   The frontal boundary extends down to Florida and will reach the Central portions of the state this afternoon causing some strong to potentially severe storms.  The next system, which may bring snow to areas as far East as Boston, will have a very strong cold front trailing it that could cause some storms in Indiana and Ohio but conditions are not good for significant development.

***This week’s Flood Risk***

Flood Risk

***Yesterday’s Storm Reports ***

Storm Reports

 

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather