Forecast and Update for Significant Severe event

Today’s delayed and abridged forecast.  We are focusing on the Severe Weather Threat for the Central and Southern Plains.  Another Severe Weather update should be out this afternoon.  Any preparations you have left to be made for this event should be made as quickly as possible.

 

Today’s National Forecast

01 National Forecast

A strong storm over the Central Plains will move slowly eastward to the Middle Mississippi Valley by Wednesday evening with a quasi-stationary front extending from the Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England to the Central Plains.  Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and near the boundary from parts of the Mid-Atlantic Coast westward to the Central Plains.  The front will sag southward to parts of the Southern Mid-Atlantic westward to the Middle Mississippi Valley by Wednesday evening.

Similarly, showers and thunderstorms will develop along and near the boundary from parts of the Mid-Atlantic roughly northwestward to parts of the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley.  In addition, a cold front associated with the system will move from the Central/Southern High Plains eastward to the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley by Wednesday.

Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the front from parts of the Central Plains to the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday afternoon advancing eastward to the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley by Wednesday evening, with showers and thunderstorms developing over parts of the Central and Eastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday afternoon into evening.

Furthermore, rain and higher elevation snow will develop over parts of the Northern Plains/High Plains to the Northern Rockies and from parts of the Great Basin to the Central High Plains from Tuesday morning into Wednesday evening.

Meanwhile, an upper-level trough over the Eastern Pacific will move to the West Coast by Wednesday evening.  The system will produce rain along the Pacific Northwest and Northern California Coast by early Wednesday morning that will move inland to parts of the Northern/Central Rockies by Wednesday afternoon producing snow at the higher elevations of the Northern and Central Rockies and Great Basin.  The rain and higher elevation snow will continue from parts of the Northwest to Northern and Central California eastward to the Northern/Central Rockies through Wednesday evening.

 

Severe Weather Update

severe outlook

Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MODERATE 66,843 3,497,331 Oklahoma City, OK…Wichita, KS…Norman, OK…Lawton, OK…Edmond, OK…
ENHANCED 123,051 15,066,402 Dallas, TX…Fort Worth, TX…Kansas City, MO…Tulsa, OK…Arlington, TX…
SLIGHT 215,090 31,205,506 Philadelphia, PA…San Antonio, TX…Austin, TX…Baltimore, MD…Washington, DC…
MARGINAL 215,410 38,144,436 New York, NY…Cincinnati, OH…Newark, NJ…Lexington-Fayette, KY…Louisville, KY…

 

Tornado Risk

02 hail

Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 83,449 9,968,722 Dallas, TX…Fort Worth, TX…Oklahoma City, OK…Arlington, TX…Wichita, KS…
10 % 83,916 10,011,584 Dallas, TX…Fort Worth, TX…Oklahoma City, OK…Arlington, TX…Wichita, KS…
5 % 107,573 6,581,830 Tulsa, OK…Lincoln, NE…Waco, TX…Olathe, KS…Killeen, TX…
2 % 149,128 9,619,753 San Antonio, TX…Austin, TX…Kansas City, MO…Omaha, NE…Shreveport, LA…

Hail Risk

03 actual hail

Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 176,470 17,276,064 Dallas, TX…Fort Worth, TX…Oklahoma City, OK…Kansas City, MO…Tulsa, OK…
45 % 66,946 3,549,691 Oklahoma City, OK…Wichita, KS…Norman, OK…Lawton, OK…Edmond, OK…
30 % 86,289 10,647,223 Dallas, TX…Fort Worth, TX…Tulsa, OK…Arlington, TX…Plano, TX…
15 % 199,275 30,075,387 Philadelphia, PA…San Antonio, TX…Austin, TX…Baltimore, MD…Washington, DC…
5 % 244,342 41,578,980 New York, NY…St. Louis, MO…Cincinnati, OH…Newark, NJ…Lexington-Fayette, KY…

SUMMARY

A substantial severe weather event is forecast for today and tonight over parts of the Central and Southern Plains.  Significant Tornadoes, Destructive Hail, and Strong Damaging Winds are all possible.  Damaging winds are also expected in the complex of thunderstorms currently moving across the Lower Missouri Valley and Middle Mississippi Valley regions this morning.  A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for that complex.

 Sever Weather Analysis

Two mid and upper level features are moving across the country today and the interaction between the 2 is setting up out scenario for Severe Weather.  The first shortwave, located near Southeastern Lower Michigan, is forecast to move through New York and Pennsylvania this afternoon.  The second system will move from near the Texas Panhandle and become the primary 500 millibar low over Northwestern Kansas by the end of the day.  This will lead to a trough extending from Western Oklahoma to the Edwards Plateau region of Texas.

A Warm front will move north across the plains and bring plenty of warm and moist air behind it.  The dryline, which will initially be over Southwestern Kansas will shift eastward into Western Oklahoma and West Central Texas before being over taken by the cold front.

Two to three rounds of thunderstorms are forecast for today and tonight, initiating near the dry line and then cold front with some forming in the warm sector as well.  The greatest threat will be along and south of the warm front and outflow boundary that moves into Southern Nebraska, and along the dryline and cold front from Central and Eastern Kansas, down through Central and Eastern Oklahoma into Central Texas.

South of there, while storms can still be severe, the overall number of storms should be less.

Thunderstorms will produce very large to giant hail and have very strong damaging wind gusts with tornadoes likely in the warm sector from and mature and discrete supercells.

Given the very large buoyancy expected, high surface dewpoints, and the steep mid-level lapse rates, updraft growth, and thus thunderstorm development, will be very quick.  Hail, both severe and non-severe, should be expected in many places.  The tornado risk will increase as the day goes on when ambient surface winds begin to strengthen.

Remember, all preparations for severe weather need to be completed as soon as possible.  These thunderstorms will develop very rapidly and a storm could form and be severe in very short amounts of time.  While we will be keeping you as up to date about severe weather watches as facebook allows, Firsthand Weather does not put out severe weather warnings.  Facebook simply doesn’t allow us to have the capability to do so at this time, so it is important to stay in tune with your local media sources for the very latest in warnings in your area.  To all our readers in this region,  be safe,  good luck, and god speed.

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather