Severe Weather Update

Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon with the primary risk over Texas.

severe outlook

Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 20,860 199,864 Del Rio, TX…Uvalde, TX…Pleasanton, TX…Hondo, TX…
SLIGHT 39,819 3,629,577 San Antonio, TX…Laredo, TX…Mission, TX…Pharr, TX…Edinburg, TX…
MARGINAL 109,236 25,822,516 Houston, TX…Jacksonville, FL…Austin, TX…New Orleans, LA…Tampa, FL…

Summary

Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail to locally very large hail,and locally damaging winds in excess of 60 miles per hour are expected across Southwest and South Central Texas.  There is potential for a few Tornadoes in this area.

tornado outlook

Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 21,049 202,528 Del Rio, TX..Eagle Pass, TX..Uvalde, TX…Hondo, TX…
2 % 84,937 19,833,286 San Antonio, TX..Jacksonville, FL..New Orleans, LA..Tampa, FL…Laredo, TX…

Currently, A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued from just eats of Marfa down to Hondo and just west of Cotulla.  This watch includes Midland, Del Rio, San  Angelo and Junction Texas.

severe watch

This watch is in effect until 10  PM Central Daylight time.  Additional watches are possible East and Southeast of the current watch box.  Hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and winds up to 70 mph are possible in this region as additional storms form when coverage increases later this afternoon.

Severe Weather Analysis

 

A few storms are forming over the Lower Pecos Valley and they should strengthen this afternoon along a slow moving cold front.  The air mass within this area and the Concho Valley is moderately unstable at this time with substantial wind shear.  The risk will spread downstream later this evening towards the Edwards Plateau.

The surface ridge over the Southern Plains exhibits maturing thunderstorms on the latest visible satellite imagery across Big Bend and Northern Mexico.  Strong boundary layer heating is noted in this region.  Convective temperatures will be breached later this evening West of the Rio Grande and supercell activity is expected to move east into Texas.

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather