Severe Weather Update
Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon with the primary risk over Texas.
| Day 1 Risk | Area (sq. mi.) | Area Pop. | Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area |
| ENHANCED | 20,860 | 199,864 | Del Rio, TX…Uvalde, TX…Pleasanton, TX…Hondo, TX… |
| SLIGHT | 39,819 | 3,629,577 | San Antonio, TX…Laredo, TX…Mission, TX…Pharr, TX…Edinburg, TX… |
| MARGINAL | 109,236 | 25,822,516 | Houston, TX…Jacksonville, FL…Austin, TX…New Orleans, LA…Tampa, FL… |
Summary
Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail to locally very large hail,and locally damaging winds in excess of 60 miles per hour are expected across Southwest and South Central Texas. There is potential for a few Tornadoes in this area.
| Day 1 Tornado Risk | Area (sq. mi.) | Area Pop. | Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area |
| 5 % | 21,049 | 202,528 | Del Rio, TX..Eagle Pass, TX..Uvalde, TX…Hondo, TX… |
| 2 % | 84,937 | 19,833,286 | San Antonio, TX..Jacksonville, FL..New Orleans, LA..Tampa, FL…Laredo, TX… |
Currently, A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued from just eats of Marfa down to Hondo and just west of Cotulla. This watch includes Midland, Del Rio, San Angelo and Junction Texas.
This watch is in effect until 10 PM Central Daylight time. Additional watches are possible East and Southeast of the current watch box. Hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and winds up to 70 mph are possible in this region as additional storms form when coverage increases later this afternoon.
Severe Weather Analysis
A few storms are forming over the Lower Pecos Valley and they should strengthen this afternoon along a slow moving cold front. The air mass within this area and the Concho Valley is moderately unstable at this time with substantial wind shear. The risk will spread downstream later this evening towards the Edwards Plateau.
The surface ridge over the Southern Plains exhibits maturing thunderstorms on the latest visible satellite imagery across Big Bend and Northern Mexico. Strong boundary layer heating is noted in this region. Convective temperatures will be breached later this evening West of the Rio Grande and supercell activity is expected to move east into Texas.
Robert Millette
Staff Meteorologist
Firsthand Weather
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About The Author
rmillette
Robert is a Meteorologist with a Degree from the University of Massachusetts at Lowell. He began his work with weather observations in the Army as a Field Artillery Fire Direction Specialist and continues that work today with the Blue Hill Meteorological Observatory. He has been forecasting for the Northeastern United States for 10 years and currently works as the Incident Meteorologist with the Braintree Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency.
