With Tropical Storm Warnings issued from Indian Pass to Englewood Florida, we now watch as Tropical Depression 3 has formed in the Gulf of Mexico and is expected to strengthen during the day. This system is likely to form into Tropical Storm Colin as it moves North Northeast toward the coast. Interests along the coast from Florida to South Carolina should monitor the progress of this storm.
Depression 3 is currently moving North at 8 miles per hour. The minimum central pressure is currently 1005 millibars with maximum sustained winds around 35 miles per hour. Three is expected to pick up forward speed and shift to the north northeast on Monday and should be near the coast by Monday evening into early Monday night.
The main hazard with this system appears to be the rain. 3-5 inches are expected with some isolated higher amounts from the Yucatan across Western Cuba into Florida. Interests in the Carolinas should be especially on guard for high rain totals after the deluge Bonnie unleashed on the region. Coastal flooding could be an slight issue, but it appears that the system will be moving onshore closer to low tide. This will help mitigate coastal flooding, despite a storm surge of 1-3 feet. There will still be some minor flooding in the typical low lying areas. The exact timing and strength of the storm will dictate exact storm surge issues.
Tropical Storm winds will impact much of the area, and a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out for the area. The Air Force hurricane hunter craft will begin to investigate this system by Monday morning. Additional information on this system will be posted as it becomes available.
This is the latest projected path, based on latest trends:
Keep in mind that the projected path is only showing where the center of circulation is expected to move. Heaviest amounts could fall on the east side of this system, which is why it will be important to nail down the exact track. Below is the latest 3-day rainfall predictions from WPC, which will be subject to change some over the next 48 hours: