Hot, hot, HOT! These three words sum up the weather across the Southern Plains thanks to an intense upper-level ridge. No changes are in store for the next 36 hours, but then there’s a slight glimmer of hope shortly after.
By Sunday afternoon this ridge will begin to shift towards the west. The westward shift of this ridge will allow for a couple pieces of energy to move into Oklahoma/Texas, and guidance is also hinting at a low (which has provided rainfall for parts of the Southeast) to move towards eastern Texas. These features will increase rain chances by Sunday afternoon through Tuesday for the Southern Plains.
Sunday’s thunderstorm activity will be more isolated (mainly across Kansas/northern Oklahoma and far eastern Texas), but coverage will increase by Monday and Tuesday. There will be two areas where the greatest thunderstorm coverage will occur: locations along and east of I-35 in Texas and far southeastern Oklahoma (due to the low), and locations along the Oklahoma/Kansas state line (due to a frontal boundary).
NAM Simulated Radar Monday Morning
NAM Simulated Radar Monday Afternoon
Rainfall totals may exceed 2″ in some areas due to the slow moving nature of storms, but most areas will see less than 1″ of rain. We will take what we can get during the summer!
NAM Rainfall Totals Through Tuesday Morning
Temperatures will be slightly cooler due to the ridge shifting westward, and an increase in cloud cover/storms. High temperatures will fall about 5 degrees into the mid-90s. Some areas in southeastern Texas may stay in the upper-80s due to more widespread thunderstorm activity.
NAM Temperatures Monday Afternoon
As always, if you have any outdoor plans, please remain alert. Any storm can produce cloud-to-ground lighting and damaging downburst winds. It appears a decent northwesterly flow may setup for the Southern Plains in about 7-days, which would increase rain chances, but I’ll have more on that in a few days.