The well-advertised arctic boundary is pushing southward across the Southern Plains at this hour. Temperatures have fallen into the teens in northwestern Oklahoma/the Texas Panhandle with windchills close to zero. Overnight lows will dip into the single digits for some areas, while the majority of the Southern Plains is in the teens and 20s.
Temperatures When You Head To Work/School-Thursday Morning (HRRR)
Wintry precipitation chances will increase tonight through Thursday morning for parts of Texas (it should be noted flurries are possible across eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas). An upper-level jet streak will move into western Texas overnight. This will generate a band of precipitation, which will likely fall in the form of freezing/frozen precipitation. Precipitation should start out as light sprinkles/very light rain, transition into freezing rain as temperatures at the surface fall below freezing, and then transition into a light snow/sleet mixture under the most concentrated band of precipitation. The greatest chance for wintry precipitation will occur just south of I-20 in northern Texas out towards the Concho Valley of Texas. Accumulations do appear to remain light at this time in northern Texas, but an inch may fall out towards western Texas/the Concho Valley.
Wintry Precipitation Chances/Accumulations (Personal Forecast)
Since the jet-streak is not overly robust, and the low-levels are fairly dry, this should limit heavier amounts of precipitation. I should point out, latest short range guidance (the RAP and the HRRR) are indicating heavier precipitation amounts, which would lead to possibly a few areas seeing more than one inch in parts of Western Texas. I am not forecasting this scenario, yet, but will keep a close eye on the evolution of the precipitation trends. Travel may become slick for parts of Western Texas, and it is possible to see slick spots develop south of I-20 in northern Texas on bridges and overpasses. I will continue to monitor the latest guidance and have updates as needed.
Snowfall Accumulations Map (HRRR)
Radar Simulation-Thursday Morning (HRRR)