Tornado Outbreak expected in Southeast

A significant Tornado outbreak and Severe Thunderstorm outbreak is expected across many areas in the Southeast, from Florida back into Alabama up through Georgia, South Carolina and parts of North Carolina.    The biggest risk is from northern Florida into Southern Georgia with smaller risks as far west as Eastern Mississippi up into Southern Virginia.

Tornado Outbreak forecast

Significant Severe Tornadoes expected

Tornado Outbreak
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 95,336 13,200,743 Columbia, SC…Charleston, SC…

St. Petersburg, FL…Orlando, FL…

Savannah, GA…Gainsville, FL

30 % 52,311 4,824,800 Jacksonville, FL…Tallahassee, FL…

Savannah, GA…Gainesville, FL…

Albany, GA…

15 % 44,337 9,370,344 Tampa, FL…St. Petersburg, FL…

Columbia, SC…Clearwater, FL…

Charleston, SC…

10 % 42,022 5,926,863 Orlando, FL…Columbus, GA…

Fayetteville, NC…Wilmington, NC…

Lakeland, FL…

5 % 81,803 21,852,295 Charlotte, NC…Atlanta, GA…

Miami, FL…Raleigh, NC…

Greensboro, NC…

2 % 48,102 6,722,417 Virginia Beach, VA…Norfolk, VA…

Birmingham, AL…Chesapeake, VA…

Winston-Salem, NC…

High Risk issued for Severe Weather

Categorical Day1 1300Z Outlook
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
HIGH 52,325 4,828,034 Jacksonville, FL…Tallahassee, FL…

Savannah, GA…Gainesville, FL…

Albany, GA…

MODERATE 44,236 9,345,964 Tampa, FL…St. Petersburg, FL…

Columbia, SC…Clearwater, FL…

Charleston, SC…

ENHANCED 54,540 8,455,690 Orlando, FL…Columbus, GA…

Cape Coral, FL…Fayetteville, NC…

Port St. Lucie, FL…

SLIGHT 68,779 19,272,935 Charlotte, NC…Atlanta, GA…

Miami, FL…Raleigh, NC…

Greensboro, NC…

MARGINAL 58,080 13,692,306  

Virginia Beach, VA….

Norfolk, VA…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A strengthening mid and upper level trough currently over Texas and Oklahoma will shift eastward into Mississippi and Alabama by this afternoon with a cold front surging east from Louisiana and Mississippi.    This storm will deepen and move north-northeastward across Alabama and Georgia.  Dewpoints ahead of this cold front are already in the 65 to 70 degree range with very buoyant air present.  The net result of these factors will be the potential for a significant tornado outbreak today.

Severe Weather is currently taking place across parts of Alabama, Georgia and Florida and a Tornado Watch is in effect until 10 AM EST.  Cluster of severe storms remain from the overnight hours and the storm environment remains favorable for supercell development.  A few tornadoes are likely and they could be intense.  Damaging winds and Large hail are also possible with these storms.

Additional watches should be expected during the day today.

While the current storms across Georgia are present, the main risk does not occur until later this morning, when thunderstorm activity will begin again over Southern Alabama and the Florida panhandle.  These storms will the spread east-northeast across Florida and Georgia through the day.  Long tracked, strong tornadoes will be possible in fast moving supercells, in addition to damaging winds and large to very large hail.  The severe risk will spread northeastward into the Carolinas this evening as the system moves toward the Southern Appalachians.  Tornadic supercells could continue to occur in south Carolina and Southern North Carolina during the overnight hours.

Further South, the cold front will reach the remainder of Florida later this evening and overnight and bring the risk of severe thunderstorms and a few tornadoes.

Any and all preparations for this event should be concluded by early this afternoon.   This will be a very dangerous situation for many people.   Please be prepared and ready at a moments notice.   We here at Firsthand Weather will do our best to be with you every step of the way this afternoon but keep your weather radios handy and pay attention to your local news broadcasts for updates on warnings that occur.    Facebook likes to prevent you from seeing our page if we post a lot of posts, as we likely will this afternoon.   To see what we are writing, you will need to go directly to our facebook pages and website, please do not count on your newsfeed to give you our information.

 

Robert Millette