Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across eastern Kansas, western Missouri, and northern and central Oklahoma as a potent shortwave moves into the Southern Plains this evening. Currently, deep moisture is advancing northward across Texas and recent guidance suggests this moisture should move into the I-35 corridor and eastward in Oklahoma later today. This moisture will set the stage for thunderstorm initiation after 4:00PM for parts of Kansas with slower thunderstorm initiation in Oklahoma (probably around 6:00PM or later) due to a strong CAP.
The CAP between 6:00PM-9:00PM should weaken sufficiently to allow for a couple intense isolated storms to develop in the vicinity of a triple-point near the OKC Metro. These storms during this time frame would likely be severe due to the aforementioned moisture, high CAPE, and the low-level jet strengthening towards and after dusk. All modes of severe weather are possible, which includes tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. The Storm Prediction center has an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms over northeastern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas. A slight risk area surrounds the enhanced risk.
SPC Thunderstorm Outlook
It appears, initially, most of the storms will remain along and north of I-40 and along and east of I-35; however, it is possible for an isolated storm or two to develop south of I-40–towards the Norman, Oklahoma vicinity. Overnight, a line of storms will evolve and advance southeastward into Arkansas and much of southeastern Oklahoma (Texoma). The main threat overnight will be gusty winds and hail.