It appears the North Atlantic tropical season may try to begin to heat up next weekend into the following week. Numerical guidance is indicating a large area of moisture (and associated disturbed weather) will establish itself across the western Caribbean/Yucatan Peninsula next weekend. This large area of high precipitable water values (moisture) will slowly advance towards the northwest into the Bay of Campeche. (Precipitable water just indicates the amount of rain that would fall if all the associated moisture were to precipitate out of a vertical column of air extending form the ground to the top of the atmosphere.)
GFS Precipitable Water Map (Next Weekend: Sunday)
It should be noted, while this area of distributed weather will not have tropical characteristics while impacting the Yucatan Peninsula, it could cause flooding in this region. If you have cruise plans near Cozumel, or travel plans, you need to keep an eye on the forecast because you may be ‘dodging’ showers and storms.
As this area of disturbed weather continues to advance into the southern Gulf of Mexico, the latest numerical guidance is showing it may begin to encounter less environmental shear. The lower environmental shear, the moist environment, and above average SST anomalies in the southern Gulf of Mexico may allow for the system to try to very slowly organize as it moves towards the northwest. We will need to keep a close eye on this as the system moves towards northern Mexico/the southern Texas Coast.
GFS 200mb-850mb Wind Shear
While it is too early to determine if this system will establish itself as numerical guidance is indicating, or organize into a tropical entity as it approaches the Gulf of Mexico, we need to keep an eye on it. What is most probable is that disturbed weather will impact the Yucatan Peninsula, and eventually northern Mexico and possibly the Texas Coast.