Just a brief morning update on Invest 93 and what the models showed overnight.
If you look at satellite imagery over the Caribbean this morning, you may think “wow, we have a tropical storm” but these images are creating a false impression. There is a nice area of convection in the Caribbean (area outlined in yellow) but the actual surface low is removed from this deep convection. The surface low is west of the convection (red ‘L’), which means there is shear in the Caribbean. The shear is beginning to lessen up so intensification of the low into a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely.
Morning satellite imagery of Caribbean
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving the low an 90% chance of development into a tropical cyclone over the next five days and a 60% chance of development within 48 hours.
Invest 93 being watched as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico
This is the latest spaghetti plot from the overnight models. What’s a spaghetti plot and why are they important? Click HERE to read more.
Below are the overnight runs of the 12km NAM, European, Canadian, and GFS-Parallel.
12km NAM predicted radar (Wednesday afternoon)
12km NAM near surface winds (Wednesday afternoon)
European position of low and winds above surface (Wednesday night)
Canadian predicted radar (Wednesday afternoon)
Canadian near surface winds (Wednesday afternoon)
GFS-Parallel predicted radar (Wednesday morning)
GFS-Parallel near surface winds (Wednesday morning)
So why are the models split on the path of the system? Click HERE to read why the models are split on the path!