Hurricane Jose track shifting towards U.S.

Hurricane Jose, currently a little more than 600 miles South Southeast of Cape Hatteras, is moving toward the Northwest at approximately 10 miles per hour.   Jose’s maximum sustained winds are at 75 miles per hour, barely qualifying as a category 1 hurricane.  Intensification is forecast for a short time while Jose remains in a low shear environment and moves over warmer water, but water temperatures begin too cool towards New England and additional shear is expected by the end of the weekend.

Hurricane Jose track

Hurricane Jose

Tropical Storm Watches possible in North Carolina

Hurricane force winds remain very close to the center of Jose at this time, but Tropical storm force winds extend 140 miles from the center.  Due to the amount of distance those winds span, and the expected enlargement of the storm, Tropical Storm Watches are possible in North Carolina over the next couple of days.  You can see how close the current forecast brings tropical storm conditions to the Outer Banks below.  A direct hit is not forecast in the region, as can be seen, but winds along the periphery of Jose could be strong enough to reach Tropical Storm status.   A Tropical Storm Watch or Warning does not mean that you will face a direct hit from a Tropical Storm, just that tropical storm conditions are likely in your area as the storm passes off shore.   We here at firsthand will be monitoring this closely over the weekend.

Jose heads North

Towards the middle of next week, the closest pass and the current area most likely to receive a direct hit if landfall occurs, is Southeastern New England.  Models have been trending west with the system as time goes by and The cone of uncertainty extends as far west as Eastern New York at this time.  The latest run of the GFS, shown below, shows a landfalling tropical system on Cape Cod.

Firsthand Weather will be with you every step of the way as Hurricane Jose makes his approach.  Please begin some of your preparations if you are in the Outer Banks or New England this weekend.   Do not be one of the people left trying to buy supplies when items are low.  Buying in advance also allows stores to restock items which allows a greater supply for everyone.   It is best to have your supplies ready a head of time and have them around to use than to not have them should the storm miss then to need them and not have them available.   You should also test flashlights and check other equipment, like medical kits, vehicle emergency kits, and generators ahead of time to ensure they are in good order.  While large evacuations are not anticipated with Jose, checking on the location of your nearest shelter would not be a bad idea if you were to lose power.


Robert Millette