It has cooled off across the Southern Plains over the past week; however, as a reminder: Fall is the second peak in severe weather for this area. The first Fall severe thunderstorm will likely occur on Saturday from southern Kansas, through Oklahoma, and into northern Texas.
The cooler airmass across the Southern Plains will begin to moderate by tomorrow and especially by Friday. Warmer and moister air will advect northward as an upper-level trough moves towards the West Coast.
Saturday Afternoon Temperatures (NAM)
Saturday Afternoon Dewpoints (NAM)
As the upper-level trough advances eastward, this will send a cold front into Kansas and Oklahoma on Saturday–followed by Texas late Saturday.
Trough Position Saturday Night (NAM)
The approaching upper-level trough, cold front, and warm/moist airmass will allow for thunderstorms to develop by Saturday afternoon across southern Kansas and northwestern Oklahoma. These storms will move southeastward as the isolated storms converge into a line of thunderstorms.
Thunderstorms have a high chance to become severe due to strong instability and favorable shear. The most likely severe modes are damaging wind, large hail, heavy rainfall, and frequent lighting. However, low-level shear is conducive for isolated tornadoes.
Saturday’s Thunderstorm Outlook (SPC)
Once the front moves through the area, Fall-like weather will return to the Southern Plains. High temperatures will dip back into the 60s for parts of Kansas and Oklahoma, with highs in Texas in the 70s. Lows will fall into the 40s and 50s.