A quick shot for a light rain/snow mix late tonight into Tuesday morning for the Texas Panhandle, Oklahoma Panhandle, northwestern Oklahoma, and Kansas looks possible. After a brief warmup, an upper-level trough centered in northeastern parts of the United States has allowed for a second shot at cool air advection for Oklahoma and northern Texas today. Viewing the forecast soundings, this cool airmass will be just cold enough for a rain/snow mixture, and there should be just enough moisture in the dendritic growth zone (where snowflakes evolve) once precipitation develops overnight.
The lifting mechanism to generate precipitation is an upper-level low that is racing towards the Southern Plains. The low is in the process of opening up, so it is weakening.
Upper-level low weakening as it moves towards Texas/Oklahoma
This weakening, coupled with a dry sub-cloud layer (very dry air from the cloud base to the surface) should keep the precipitation light; however, it is possible a few areas in the Panhandle could see 1″ of snow. (Higher snowfall totals, of 1-2″, are possible in Kansas.)
Dry surface may lead to increased evaporation (some virga possible)
NAM snowfall totals
Kansas, the northern Texas Panhandle, and the Oklahoma Panhandle have the best chance to see snow; with northwestern Oklahoma and the southern Texas Panhandle having the potential to see a mixture too. The snow should not create any travel issues and the snow chances will decrease by late Tuesday morning from west to east.
Areas most likely to see wintry precipitation