If you live along the Gulf Coast and have outdoor plans for July 4th, it would be wise to stay weather-alert. Thunderstorms, and heavy rainfall, are likely across coastal areas of Florida to Texas from Monday into Thursday. An upper-low will slowly trek east to west along the Gulf this week. This will increase precipitation chances (from east to west) over the course of the week. Florida and Alabama will see the best rain chances on Monday into Tuesday, with rain chances increasing and shifting west into Mississippi late Monday into early Wednesday, and shifting further west into Louisiana and Texas by Tuesday lasting into Thursday for Texas.
Luckily, tropical development is not expected at this time, but regardless of tropical development–heavy rainfall and flash flooding is possible due to stagnant steering currents and anomalously high deep layer moisture. Along with heavy rainfall, cloud-to-ground lightning is possible and rip-currents are likely along the coast for beach-goers. Forecast soundings show an environmental favorable for downbursts so damaging winds are possible with the strongest storms during this timeframe, too.
Overall, widespread 2-4″ amounts are expected for coastal areas of the Gulf, but where training occurs, much higher rainfall totals are possible (see Fig. 1). The greatest impacts for the 4th of July Holiday will likely occur in Texas and Louisiana.
Fig. 1: WPC Rainfall Totals Through 7 Days
Please remain weather alert this week. If water is covering a roadway, please turn around-don’t drown. Also, if you hear thunder, please move indoors until the storm passes.