It is only October but snow is in the forecast for parts of Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas by late this weekend. The strongest cold front of the season will move southward into this region by late-weekend. Behind this cold front, the temperatures with the Canadian airmass will be at or below freezing for much of Kansas, the Panhandle of Oklahoma and northwestern Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle.
A potent shortwave trough will dive south out of the Rockies, along with warm-air advection well-above the surface, will lead to the development of precipitation late Saturday into Sunday. Precipitation initially will fall as light rain but forecasted soundings show (see Fig. 1) a transition to snow is expected throughout the day on Sunday into early Monday (see Fig. 2 and Fig. 3).
Fig. 1: Forecast sounding in Texas Panhandle
Fig. 2: Future radar (Sunday afternoon)
Fig. 3: Future radar (Monday morning)
Guidance indicates frontogenesis developing Sunday, which will act to increase precipitation rates. This will lead to banded snow features in which moderate to heavy snow may fall at times late Sunday. Several inches may fall within this area of frontogenesis, which guidance indicates will be from southwest to northeast out of the Oklahoma Panhandle into central Kansas. Lighter snow amounts will fall to the east and south of this area (see Fig. 4).
Fig. 4: Forecast snowfall totals
Travel will likely become dangerous in areas that see the heaviest snowfall late Sunday into Monday morning.