Hurricane Willa is getting closer to the west-central coast of Mexico and should make landfall within the next few hours (Tuesday evening). Willa should retain major status until landfall. Willa will begin to weaken and lose its tropical characteristics as it moves across the higher terrain of Mexico into Texas but the remnants will remain well established to have large impacts from mid-week through the weekend for parts of the United States.
As the remnants move into Texas, deep moisture will stream northward throughout Texas into eastern New Mexico and Oklahoma. This will aid in heavy rainfall for this region with the greatest flood threat occurring in central and southern Texas, which has recently been inundated with rain. Widespread 1-3″ amounts are possible in eastern New Mexico and central and southern Texas with isolated 3-4″ amounts in central Texas near the Hill Country (see Fig. 1).
Fig. 1: 7-day rainfall forecast
The remnants will move out of Texas on Wednesday, merge with a shortwave, and begin to slowly intensify across the northern Gulf by Thursday. This will aid in thunderstorms and heavy rain for the Gulf States (from Louisiana to Florida) for late week. The low will then move off of the Southeast coast by late Friday and begin a north-northeastward forward movement off of the coast of the Carolinas. At this point, the low will begin to interact with an approaching cold front and deepen fairly quickly by Saturday morning as it spins off of the coast of the Mid-Atlantic. Heavy precipitation (see Fig. 1), rough seas and strong winds up to 30-60 mph (see Fig. 2)) will be possible for parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through the weekend. While coastal areas will see heavy rain (2-4″ are possible), areas further inland may see snow.
Fig. 2: Wind forecast Saturday evening
That is right, snow is possible as the nor’easter wraps in enough cold air for a transition to a heavy, wet snow. The best chance for snow will occur in interior parts of the Northeast down into the higher terrain of West Virginia. These areas may see a few inches of wet snow with several inches possible in the higher elevations of the Appalachians. Please keep in mind, we are a few days out so the snowfall forecast will likely need to be adjusted. A couple degrees cooler or warmer will have large impacts on accumulations and precipitation type.
Flooding is possible in Texas from this storm, which will impact travel. Turn around, don’t drown. Travel implications are also likely in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast due to wind and precipitation. With trees still having leaves on them, this increases the likelihood of them being overwhelmed for either wind or snow. This will increase the chances of power outages in this region over the weekend.