We continue to monitor the chance for snow across much of the South and Southeast from Monday night into Tuesday. Most of this region will see the opportunity for snow accumulations that could impact travel. The worst travel conditions appear to be on Tuesday from northern Louisiana eastward into northern Georgia.
The first areas to experience snow will be far eastern Oklahoma, northeast Texas, Arkansas, western Tennessee and northern Louisiana by late Monday night. The rain & snow will move east and southward by early Tuesday morning into central Tennessee and parts of Mississippi (see Fig. 1) before moving further east into parts of Alabama and Georgia later on Tuesday (see Fig. 2). Parts of upstate South Carolina and North Carolina should get in on the rain & snow later in the day on Tuesday (see Fig. 3).
Accumulations do look likely from late Monday though Tuesday. The event being a few days out makes it extremely difficult to forecast snow accumulations, however. There are two negative factors for accumulations. I) Monday (the day before the snow) will be warm across this region, which will lead to warmer ground temperatures, and II) the window for snow is only about a 4-6 hour period. Even with these two mitigating factors, this event will be the best chance so far this season for accumulating snow across the South and Southeast.
The snow rates should exceed melting and the best chance for accumulations will across northern & central Mississippi, Tennessee, northern & central Alabama, northern Louisiana and northern Georgia. Guidance is evening indicating some instability, which could lead to convective banding of snow (this is where the heaviest snow totals are possible). It is too difficult to pinpoint where those bands may setup. That is almost a nowcasting scenario. Secondly, areas that see snow pre-dawn on Tuesday will have the best chance to see accumulations and nasty road conditions. Even though it is difficult to forecast snow accumulations this far out, I wanted to provide you with a second preliminary snow accumulations map (see Fig. 4). Please note, this will likely change over the next 48-72 hours as we get closer to the event. It is possible the polygons may need to me reduced or expanded, and snow totals may need to be increased or decreased.
The South and Southeast are not the only regions that have snow in the forecast. Coastal areas of North Carolina and Virginia may see snow beginning Monday due to a coastal low that will quickly deepen off the coast. This could allow a band of snow to setup from Virginia Beach down into eastern North Carolina. If this happens, it is possible heavy accumulations may occur, which is why this small area is included in the 2-5″ zone. It should be noted, most numerical guidance indicates the low will be too far off shore to aid in precipitation chances for this area, but we believe the low may closer to the coast, thus, have reflected this in the snow accumulation forecast. Regardless, snow chances increase for this area by Tuesday night into Wednesday. Those snow chances also increase for the rest of the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast by Wednesday. Parts of the Northeast, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will see multiple snow opportunities from Sunday through Wednesday so accumulations are likely (see Fig. 5). More than one foot of snow is possible for parts of the Great Lakes region where lake effect snow band establish themselves.
Please keep checking back for updates as this is a fluid forecast and changes may be needed!
Christopher Nunley is Meteorologist on Firsthand Weather, Lecturer in the Department of Geosciences at Mississippi State University (MSU), and a PhD Candidate (Earth and Atmospheric Sciences) at MSU. He earned his M.S. in Applied Meteorology at MSU, was an Assistant Cross Country Coach and taught at the University of North Texas, and was a Broadcast Meteorologist at KTEN-TV (just north of Dallas, Texas). Christopher’s main focus lies within teaching and inspiring prospective meteorology students, atmospheric research to further our understanding of atmospheric processes, and forecasting and analyzing extreme weather events to help save lives!