The flood risk is high across the Southeast to wrap up February. The storm track, which has been just north of the Southeast, will shift south allowing for several wet storms to move from the Mississippi Valley towards the east and north. As the storm track moves south this upcoming week, several disturbances will move across the Southeast. Each one creating enough lift to generate rain. Periodically, stalled frontal boundaries will be located across this region, which will act to enhance rainfall–increasing the flood threat.
It is difficult to pinpoint exactly which area will see the heaviest rainfall but at this time it appears widespread 3-6″ will fall from Louisiana east through Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and north into parts of Tennessee and Kentucky this week with isolated 5-10″ amounts (see Fig. 1). The heavy rain axis will also extend farther east in north into Virginia and the Carolinas.
The soil is saturated in this region from above average precipitation during the cool season. This, paired with a lack of foliage due to the cold season, will allow for quick runoff into area streams, creeks and rivers this upcoming week. Please remain alert of your surroundings. And, as always, TURN AROUND, DON’T DROWN!
Christopher Nunley is Meteorologist on Firsthand Weather, Lecturer in the Department of Geosciences at Mississippi State University (MSU), and a PhD Candidate (Earth and Atmospheric Sciences) at MSU. He earned his M.S. in Applied Meteorology at MSU, was an Assistant Cross Country Coach and taught at the University of North Texas, and was a Broadcast Meteorologist at KTEN-TV (just north of Dallas, Texas). Christopher’s main focus lies within teaching and inspiring prospective meteorology students, atmospheric research to further our understanding of atmospheric processes, and forecasting and analyzing extreme weather events to help save lives!