Severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes, are possible across parts of the South and Southeast today into this evening (see Fig. 1 & 2). A potent shortwave digging into the Midwest, has allowed a surface low to develop along the Gulf–near Louisiana. This surface low is pulling in deep moisture into the South and Southeast, which will set the stage for severe thunderstorms.
At this hour, storms have already developed along a cold front across parts of Mississippi and Louisiana. As the cold front moves eastward, the storms should continue to gain intensity as the airmass ahead of the front becomes more unstable. It is likely that a complex of severe thunderstorms will ensue with isolated supercells (possibly with tornadoes) may develop out ahead of the main complex of thunderstorms. All modes of severe weather are possible: tornadoes, damaging winds, hail, lightning and flash flooding. The severe threat exists across southern Mississippi east into Alabama through the early afternoon hours before shifting eastward into Georgia and South Carolina later in the day (see Fig. 3 & 4).
The tornado threat exists from Louisiana north and eastward into the Carolinas (see Fig. 5). A few strong tornadoes are possible from southern Mississippi east through southern Alabama into Georgia. Make sure you have a plan in place in case a watch or warning is issued for your area.
Christopher Nunley is Meteorologist on Firsthand Weather, Lecturer in the Department of Geosciences at Mississippi State University (MSU), and a PhD Candidate (Earth and Atmospheric Sciences) at MSU. He earned his M.S. in Applied Meteorology at MSU, was an Assistant Cross Country Coach and taught at the University of North Texas, and was a Broadcast Meteorologist at KTEN-TV (just north of Dallas, Texas). Christopher’s main focus lies within teaching and inspiring prospective meteorology students, atmospheric research to further our understanding of atmospheric processes, and forecasting and analyzing extreme weather events to help save lives!