The weather will get interesting for parts of the Southeast tomorrow as a coastal low develops and intensifies off the coast of the Carolinas (see Fig. 1). This surface low will lead to the potential of a brief period of snow for far northeast Georgia and parts of the Carolinas Tuesday morning.
Numerical guidance initially struggled with the placement of the surface low (some models showed the low near the coast of South Carolina and other models showed the low well off of the coast). Recently, however, guidance is indicating the low may hug the South Carolina coast, which would be far enough west to wrap in moisture to the Carolinas and possible far northeast Georgia.
As the precipitation develops and rotates into this region tomorrow morning (see Fig. 2), modeled soundings show a very dry surface and chilly temps aloft. This is the perfect setup for evaporational cooling, which will allow the rain to transition to snow after 5:00AM. Accumulations are questionable tomorrow but it does appear slushy accumulations may occur especially in the higher terrain of South Carolina and North Carolina (see Fig. 3).
By lunchtime, the precipitation should begin to move towards the northeast and temperatures will warm, which will allow the snow to stop by the afternoon for this region.
Christopher Nunley is Meteorologist on Firsthand Weather, Lecturer in the Department of Geosciences at Mississippi State University (MSU), and a PhD Candidate (Earth and Atmospheric Sciences) at MSU. He earned his M.S. in Applied Meteorology at MSU, was an Assistant Cross Country Coach and taught at the University of North Texas, and was a Broadcast Meteorologist at KTEN-TV (just north of Dallas, Texas). Christopher’s main focus lies within teaching and inspiring prospective meteorology students, atmospheric research to further our understanding of atmospheric processes, and forecasting and analyzing extreme weather events to help save lives!