Firsthand Weather is keeping a close eye on an area of convection east of the Bahamas this morning for tropical development over the next few days (see Fig. 1). This area of convection is expected to continue to expand and organize as it moves towards an area of lower environmental shear (see Fig. 2), and a low should develop by Monday.
Once the low develops, it is possible further organization and intensification may occur, leading to this season’s first tropical depression or tropical storm. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has given this area of convection a 30% chance of tropical development over the next 48 hours and a 40% chance of tropical development over the next 5 days (see Fig. 3).
Luckily, a ridge to the west/northwest will protect the East Coast from an impact (if development occurs), thus, allowing this system to move towards the northeast (see Fig. 4). If this area of convection obtains tropical characteristics, it would receive the first name of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season: Andrea. It appears environmental shear will increase by mid-week, which will prevent “Andrea” from getting too strong.
Christopher Nunley is Meteorologist on Firsthand Weather, Lecturer in the Department of Geosciences at Mississippi State University (MSU), and a PhD Candidate (Earth and Atmospheric Sciences) at MSU. He earned his M.S. in Applied Meteorology at MSU, was an Assistant Cross Country Coach and taught at the University of North Texas, and was a Broadcast Meteorologist at KTEN-TV (just north of Dallas, Texas). Christopher’s main focus lies within teaching and inspiring prospective meteorology students, atmospheric research to further our understanding of atmospheric processes, and forecasting and analyzing extreme weather events to help save lives!