Heavy Rain & Flooding Possible From Texas To The Carolinas

The tropical disturbance we mentioned over the weekend is still spinning over the southwest Gulf of Mexico (see Fig. 1). Proximity to land and moderate to high shear should keep this disturbance from intensifying into a tropical depression or tropical storm. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has lowered the probability of this disturbance developing into a tropical cyclone to 40% (see Fig. 2).

Fig. 1: Tropical disturbance in southwestern Gulf of Mexico
Fig. 2: NHC development probabilities

Regardless of development, deep tropical moisture will move into the South-Central and Southeastern U.S. this week (see Fig. 3). Today through Thursday, Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana and Arkansas will have the best shot to see heavy rain. (It should be noted, Florida and the coastal areas of Georgia and South Carolina may see some thunderstorms during this time-frame, too, do to a front lying across the area.) The heavy rain will shift east into Mississippi, Tennessee and Alabama by Thursday into Friday; followed by a shift east into Georgia and the Carolinas over the weekend into early next week.

Fig. 3: Precipitable water values

Widespread heavy rain accumulations are likely from Tuesday through Monday for Texas east into the Carolinas. 3-6″ of rain will be common in these areas with isolated higher amounts (see Fig. 4 & 5). Flooding will become a concern. It should also be noted, the rivers and streams in the lower-Mississippi Valley are very high due to upstream runoff. The rain this week will exacerbate the swelling rivers/streams in Mississippi and Louisiana.

Fig. 4: WPC’s rainfall forecast next 7 days
Fig. 5: WPC’s rainfall forecast next 7 days (Southeast focus)

Please remember, always turn around if you drive upon a road that has water covering the roadway. 

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