It has been very wet across the Southeast over the past few days and more rain is in the forecast. Periodic tropical downpours will occur across the Southeast this evening through tomorrow (Monday). The best chance for flash flooding will occur in northern Georgia, upstate South Carolina, eastern Tennessee and western/central North Carolina on Monday (see Fig. 1).
Late Monday into Tuesday, a cold front will push into the Southeast. Along the cold front, a line of showers and thunderstorms is possible, which could dump brief but heavy rain. Luckily, behind the cold front, drying will take place (see Fig. 2), which will briefly put an end to most shower and thunderstorm activity for a large part of the Southeast (other than coastal areas of the Carolinas/Georgia and Florida where heavy rain may lead to flooding (see Fig. 3)).
The drier airmass behind the cold front will be temporary. On Wednesday, a trough will push into the region (see Fig. 3) allowing a low to develop across northern Florida/southern Georgia. This low will intensify and lift northeast. This will pull Gulf moisture back into the Southeast (see Fig. 4) increasing rain chances for the Southeast Wednesday into Thursday. Some of this rain will be heavy, which will exacerbate the flooding issues in Georgia and the Carolinas on both Wednesday and early Thursday.
Additional rain accumulations of 3-6″ are likely through Thursday for Florida, eastern Georgia, central and eastern South Carolina and much of North Carolina (see Fig. 5).
A gradual drying trend will take place from Thursday night into the weekend for the Southeast. Remember, if you come across a road that is covered in water, turn around!
Christopher Nunley is Meteorologist on Firsthand Weather, Lecturer in the Department of Geosciences at Mississippi State University (MSU), and a PhD Candidate (Earth and Atmospheric Sciences) at MSU. He earned his M.S. in Applied Meteorology at MSU, was an Assistant Cross Country Coach and taught at the University of North Texas, and was a Broadcast Meteorologist at KTEN-TV (just north of Dallas, Texas). Christopher’s main focus lies within teaching and inspiring prospective meteorology students, atmospheric research to further our understanding of atmospheric processes, and forecasting and analyzing extreme weather events to help save lives!