Tropical Depression 3 (TD3) has formed between the east coast of Florida and the Bahamas. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) classified the tropical wave as a depression this afternoon based on satellite imagery indicating a closed low-level circulation formed as well as a noticeable uptick in convection (see Fig. 1). TD3 has maximum sustained winds of 30mph as the tropical low moves northwest at 13mph.
TD3 will turn more northerly beginning Tuesday followed by a northeasterly turn in the tropical low by late Tuesday into early Wednesday (see Fig. 2). Slight strengthening is possible of TD3 over the next 24 hours. Wind shear north of the tropical low should keep TD3 a Tropical Depression or weak Tropical Storm. The NHC and most of the numerical guidance indicates only Tropical Depression intensity (see Fig. 3).
TD3 will not pose a significant threat to the Southeast Coast but will increase moisture for Florida and coastal areas of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina. Heavy rain is possible through mid-week for coastal areas of the Southeast as TD3 moves north and interacts with a cold front. Widespread 2-4″ is possible along the coast of the Southeast (see Fig. 4).
Along with coastal moisture from Florida to North Carolina, enhanced waves & rip-currents are possible for coastal areas in the Southeast. TD3 is forecasted to dissipate Wednesday morning near the coast of North Carolina.
Christopher Nunley is Meteorologist on Firsthand Weather, Lecturer in the Department of Geosciences at Mississippi State University (MSU), and a PhD Candidate (Earth and Atmospheric Sciences) at MSU. He earned his M.S. in Applied Meteorology at MSU, was an Assistant Cross Country Coach and taught at the University of North Texas, and was a Broadcast Meteorologist at KTEN-TV (just north of Dallas, Texas). Christopher’s main focus lies within teaching and inspiring prospective meteorology students, atmospheric research to further our understanding of atmospheric processes, and forecasting and analyzing extreme weather events to help save lives!