As a shortwave moves into the lower Mississippi Valley, a surface low will track across the Southeast today, sparking strong to severe thunderstorms. The airmass ahead of this low pressure is rather unstable with favorable environmental conditions for severe weather. All hazards are possible Tuesday afternoon & evening, which includes: tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail.
The best severe threat is in the corridor between I-20 and I-10 from Alabama east into Georgia. There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across southern Alabama, southern Georgia, far northern Florida and far southern South Carolina (see Fig. 1). A marginal risk surrounds the slight risk area.
Let’s take a look at the progression and timing of the severe thunderstorms. The severe threat will shift into the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and far southwestern Georgia around lunchtime (see Fig. 2). Heading into the early afternoon hours, the severe threat will shift farther east into far northern Florida and south-central Georgia (see Fig. 3). By late-afternoon, the severe threat will shift into southeastern Georgia and far southern South Carolina.
Make sure you have several sources to receive weather-related information (warnings & watches). Also, make sure you have a plan in place in case a warning is issued.
Christopher Nunley is Meteorologist on Firsthand Weather, Lecturer in the Department of Geosciences at Mississippi State University (MSU), and a PhD Candidate (Earth and Atmospheric Sciences) at MSU. He earned his M.S. in Applied Meteorology at MSU, was an Assistant Cross Country Coach and taught at the University of North Texas, and was a Broadcast Meteorologist at KTEN-TV (just north of Dallas, Texas). Christopher’s main focus lies within teaching and inspiring prospective meteorology students, atmospheric research to further our understanding of atmospheric processes, and forecasting and analyzing extreme weather events to help save lives!