Southeast Severe Storms

As a shortwave moves into the lower Mississippi Valley, a surface low will track across the Southeast today, sparking strong to severe thunderstorms. The airmass ahead of this low pressure is rather unstable with favorable environmental conditions for severe weather. All hazards are possible Tuesday afternoon & evening, which includes: tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail.

The best severe threat is in the corridor between I-20 and I-10 from Alabama east into Georgia. There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across southern Alabama, southern Georgia, far northern Florida and far southern South Carolina (see Fig. 1). A marginal risk surrounds the slight risk area.

Figure 1: Storm Prediction Center’s thunderstorm outlook map for Tuesday

Let’s take a look at the progression and timing of the severe thunderstorms. The severe threat will shift into the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and far southwestern Georgia around lunchtime (see Fig. 2). Heading into the early afternoon hours, the severe threat will shift farther east into far northern Florida and south-central Georgia (see Fig. 3). By late-afternoon, the severe threat will shift into southeastern Georgia and far southern South Carolina.

Figure 2: Simulated radar near lunchtime
Figure 3: Simulated radar early-afternoon
Figure 4: Simulated radar late-afternoon

Make sure you have several sources to receive weather-related information (warnings & watches). Also, make sure you have a plan in place in case a warning is issued.