We have yet another tricky winter storm forecast on the table for tomorrow going into early next week. This active pattern is about as locked in as it gets, and although there are signs that we may try to snap out of it sometime in March, we still have at least 7 to 10 days with this cold and active pattern, maybe more. It’s a lot of work forecasting these individual storms, and as much as I love it, a small break would be nice. 🙂 Anyway, let’s jump right into it.
I wrote on Facebook earlier about how these active patterns can bring surprise winter events. While it won’t be a surprise for the Southern Plains, I really wouldn’t be shocked if regions farther east got wintry precipitation also earlier next week. The Rockies are currently getting the kind of snowfall they haven’t seen all winter, and the precipitation will eventually spread and develop into the Southern Plains tomorrow into Monday.
Southern Plains and Mid-South Winter Storm:
A strong Canadian high pressure system is going to be pushing south into the United States tomorrow and will be wrapping around very cold air with it. The first round of precipitation will move into the Southern Plains tomorrow, bringing wintry precipitation into the western half of Kansas, the panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas and eventually spread eastward into parts of Oklahoma, Arkansas, and maybe northern parts of Mississippi and Alabama (maybe including Birmingham) on Sunday night into Monday. I’m thinking that regions from Dallas southward should just have rain tomorrow, but then things get very interesting early Monday morning into the afternoon.
More precipitation will be developing on Monday, and regions from a large part of Oklahoma into Arkansas and southward into Texas and northern and central Louisiana will be dealing will a snowy and icy mess. This includes Dallas, Austin, and maybe even as far south an San Antonio. This will be a widespread event that will make traveling impossible for some areas, especially where sleet and freezing rain fall. The wintry precipitation could spread into parts of Mississippi and Alabama once again.
The NAM has snowy and icy conditions developing across the Southern Plains early on Monday, eventually spreading eastward into the Mid-South later in the day. (I’ll keep an eye on that region over North Carolina, just in case something comes up.)
Winter Storm Surprise For The Southeast?
I’m going to include this because I know how these kind of active and cold patterns are. Forecast models just don’t handle these types of setups well, meaning a surprise or two can happen. Now please understand that this is NOT the winter storm threat that I am monitoring for late this upcoming week into the weekend.
As high pressure begins to move south and eastward early this week, another cold air damming scenario could set up east of the Appalachians. Many surprise winter events have occurred as a result of this, and again, forecast models often miss these. IF (take special note of this condition) moisture spreads far enough north anywhere from Tuesday into Wednesday, then there COULD be an unexpected winter storm across states like Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina.
You can see where the NAM develops snow and icy weather over parts of the Southeast. I’m watching that VERY closely.
Right now, forecast models suppress the moisture farther south after it works its way eastward from the Southern Plains and mid-South. With how things have gone so far this winter, I wouldn’t be surprised if moisture tries to come farther north due to low pressure system tracking farther north. I’m just throwing this potential out there and want you to be aware that this is a possibility that could catch many off guard. I just have a difficult time seeing that system going that far south, but it may. I just need to keep a close watch on it.
Robert Hanson from Olney, MD shared this photo today! He said that was about 9 inches of snow.