I posted a fairly lengthy discussion on the site the other day on this upcoming severe weather potential. Due to being busy this week, I’m not going to be able to make my own maps like I promised, so the SPC’s convective outlooks are going to have to do. SPC typically does a very good job when predicting these kinds of events!
Anyway, if you want a more detailed discussion, please refer to my older article, which is still fairly up-to-date. The environment is becoming very favorable for the development of discrete supercells later this afternoon, and I expect some of these cells to become tornadic. I won’t get as much into the thermodynamics and kinematics today like I did the other day, but I do want to show you a visible satellite image.
As you can see, the cloud-cover is very thick over much of Texas into central Oklahoma due to storminess over the area. That doesn’t mean that tornadic storms won’t develop in that region, but if this cloud-cover can stay thick enough, it will hinder the environment from becoming as unstable. There is a pretty sizable cap over the region, so daytime heating will be needed to erode that cap.
However, the residents in the area farther north and northeast of the region mentioned above need to watch today’s severe weather situation very closely. The hotspot will be from north and northern Oklahoma, southeastern Kansas, across Missouri, and into Illinois, where tornadoes (possibly strong and long-track) could occur. As you see on satellite image, there are breaks in the cloud-cover so the atmosphere is continuing to become very unstable over that region.
Here is SPC’s tornado probability map. Especially if you’re in the black hatched region, you need to be prepared for the potential of tornadoes, some of which could be strong. Always have a plan in place, and have a way to get alerts from your local NWS office.