Tropical troubles are brewing for parts of the Southern Plains and South this upcoming work week. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring a low-pressure system over the southern Gulf of Mexico, just north of the Yucatan Peninsula, this afternoon, and has given the system a 70% of further development into a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm over the next day or two. Right now, the system is fighting conditions in the upper-levels that are not conducive for development, however this should change over the next 24-48 hours. With that said, regardless of development into a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm, this system will bring flooding rains to parts of Texas, parts of Oklahoma, Louisiana, and Arkansas.
Projected Rainfall Totals from CMC Model:
The low will move towards the north-northwest—inching closer to the middle to upper Texas Coast by late Monday into Tuesday. The exact timing and track is still to be resolved over the next 12-24 hours because the models are all over the place with this system. This low, as aforementioned, should develop into a weak Tropical Storm by Monday evening, right before it begins to encounter the Texas Coast. This will spread tropical moisture into Texas only exacerbating the flooding issues the state has dealt with over the past month. As the system tracks northward into the state, it appears it will remain intact relatively well. Not only does this mean rain chances, including flash flooding, will be high, but some gusty winds and possible isolated weak tornadoes are possible on the eastern side of this low (probably east of the I-35 corridor) by Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning.
HWRF Model Landfall Along Texas Coast:
HWRF Model Brings System Farther North Towards Dallas:
HWRF Model Eventually Brings System Along TX/OK Border:
Some locations may see several inches of rainfall. Right now, the best rain chance will be Tuesday through Thursday, and locations along and east of I-35 will likely see 2-6″ of rain (some areas, especially near the Texas Coast and far eastern Texas/eastern Oklahoma may see 5-10″+ of rain). Flooding and flash flooding are likely during the upcoming work week and are the main threats with this system. Again, the exact timing and track of the storm are up in the air right now, but I will have updates as needed to fine-tune this forecast. If you live along and east of I-35, please prepare now for life threatening flash flooding!
Projected Path from Various Models: