I mentioned several days ago on social media that a close eye needs to be kept on the tropics due to the possibility that some home-brew activity could try to develop later this month. Even though I like to give an early warning when conditions seem as if they could become a bit more favorable for tropical development, I usually do not start discussing anything in too much detail until there is an actual area of convection (storminess) that is being monitored for possible organization, which isn’t currently the case.
A cold front has pushed into the southern Gulf Coast states and extends off the East Coast. During the summer, it’s difficult to get these fronts to push too far south, so they usually just stall out until they dissipate. In the meantime, clusters of thunderstorms can develop and become better organized over open waters along a stalled or dissipating front, if atmospheric conditions are favorable for development.
Below is a water vapor image, which gives you an idea of where the front is currently located. You can see the dry air (depicted as dark orange/black) pushing into parts of the Southeast as surface high pressure builds in from the north. You can also see the storms being triggered by the front along the southern Gulf coast and Florida.
The forecast models have been hinting at something developing later next week near Florida or just off the East Coast, and the latest two runs of the European model have been quite aggressive. It currently has a tropical system developing off the Southeast coast near the Carolinas and then racing up the East Coast, staying just offshore. Details will definitely change.
Again, it’s important not to get too caught up on the actual storm showing up on some of the models, but if you’re located along the northeast Gulf Coast, anywhere in Florida, and up the East Coast, then keep a close watch on everything. I’ll be posting additional and more detailed updates if needed.