Beware of Bogus Winter Forecasts

Over the last few days, I’ve noticed a bogus 2015-16 winter forecast floating around the internet, and it has continued to generate thousands of shares every few minutes, despite the lack of meteorology behind the forecast. This is just a friendly reminder to be careful what you share on the internet, and make sure you check your sources. For me, I usually do not share any articles or content from a website or social media page until they have proven to be credible. If it’s a weather site, be sure to go back and look at their previous forecasts in order to verify their accuracy, and make sure that future forecasts are within reason. I expect my readers to hold Firsthand Weather to that same standard. Below is the winter forecast that is making its rounds, which was originally published on a satire website.

Bogus Winter Forecast:

Bogus Winter Prediction 2015-16

I am in no way opposed to putting out seasonal forecasts several months in advance. In fact, I just published my early 2015-16 winter forecast this month along with a separate article that included my detailed analysis with my current reasoning. The bogus winter forecast from the satire site was put out as a joke, and people need to realize that. Sometimes it’s difficult to decipher between what is legitimate and what’s not. Even winter forecasts that are backed with solid meteorology can include fairly sizable errors, especially when they’re put out several months in advance. We still have A LOT to learn when it comes to long-range forecasting!

Firsthand Weather’s Early 2015-16 Winter Forecast:

2015-16 Winter Forecast

So why should I care? I care because these types of weather forecasts make the rest of us look bad, who spend countless hours making sure that our forecasts are accurate. There’s no way that this satirical forecast will verify for everyone, and if people don’t get their snow, well, it’s not pretty. 😉

Again, just be careful what you view as legitimate, and check the source before you share their content. It would do us all a HUGE favor.

  • Pingback: How's the weather at your place? - August 2015 - Page 14()

  • Rodney

    Will Elnino effect this winter in central Alabama if yes how

  • Tim Weber

    Would you buy season ski passes if you lived near Lake Tahoe for winter 2015-16?

  • MC

    Hello, Matthew. Thanks for all this work. Do you have any information on the weather predictions/trending in Alaska? I see the lower 48. Thanks