At long last, Ida makes her move.

You’d never know it based on how weak and short lived many of the named tropical systems have been this year, but the Atlantic basin got its 9th named storm when Tropical Storm Ida formed several days ago.   Now a Tropical Depression as she has slowly weakened in the same sheared environment that has destroyed even category hurricanes like Danny, Ida has managed to survive despite the odds with a highly unusual track including a multi day move to the South East as pictured here.

In the coming days, the trough of low pressure that has been providing the moderate shear that has kept Ida weak will begin shifting east, away from her, and the subtropical ridge that has been in place this year will re-strengthen and Ida, will begin to head back to the west as the steering currents re-establish themselves.  While Ida will remain weak, if she is able to hold together and get into the very warm waters closer to Florida, she has an opportunity to establish herself as a storm but that forecast is still well over a week away, but the forecast does call for Ida to slowly re-intensify as conditions improve for development.  The conditions will not be good, but they will be better than they are now.

As you can see in the satellite image, Ida is seriously stretched out and the dry air surrounding her is limiting her current moisture output.  This will continue for several days until she moves into a more favorable area, assuming she makes it to there.

In other tropical news of note, a low pressure system is set to move across Mexico from the Pacific into the Gulf of Mexico by crossing the Yucatan.  This system poses the best current chance for the Atlantic basin’s 10th named storm sometime next week.

Robert Millette