Oct
26
2011
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Hurricane Rina: Fighting off Dry Air

Author An article by Garrett Bastardi    Comments 1 Comment

Rina has spent most of of the night trying to fend off some nasty dry air coming from the west. Although the conditions are harsh I still expect Rina to get to a Major Hurricane. Yesterday evening it did briefly get to 103kts which is 120mph winds and a 964.5mb pressure. Now it is 967mb and 110mph storm. Later today the dry air should somewhat cease in front of the coming trough, that is expected to take Rina off to the North and then to the Northeast.
Dry Air west of Rina:

In the models almost all of them agree that the storm gets into the SE gulf, from there, there is a lot of uncertainty with them. The GFDL has an 80kt hurricane hitting southwest florida, and this is the track that is most aligned with mine and Firsthand Weather’s
GFDL:

Now this is my track, there is no big changes, intensity a little lower.
Track:

So what I believe will happen is we will have a major hurricane staying just east of the yucatan with 115-130mph winds, then the storm will enter the gulf with around 110-120mph winds, then finally I think it will get caught with the trough a turn to the east and weaken, but make landfall in Southwestern Florida as a 80-95mph hurricane.
Stay tuned with Firsthand weather!

About the Author: Garrett Bastardi

I have been interested in the weather since the day I was born. I am the son of Joe Bastardi, and I am so thankful to have a great Dad and teacher like him. he knows the weather like the back of his hand, and he has really helped me get started with my dream of being a forecaster. ALthough he is my dad, with every forecast I am trying to beat him and put out a better forecast than him, which can be tough. In a few years I hope to attend the meteorology dept. at Texas A&M University. I have always dreamed of going to A&M. My grandfather earned a degree there and so thats where I want to study meteorology. Also I hope to get a full college scholarship in golf to A&M, I am an avid golfer and was the District 6 Champ, in PA for golf this year. I hope you have enjoyed reading about me, I am honored to be able to forecast on a site like Firsthand Weather!

  • Lovingcancun!!

    Not to be misled by borderline hurricanes such as a category
    2 hurricane with winds of 109 mph. Two mph more and it is a category 3. There is
    very little difference between a 109 mph Cat. 2 and 111 mph Cat. 3 hurricane.
    The author also would like to see the width and speed included in abbreviated
    reports as well as relative strength. For example: Hurricane X, Cat 3-, W60,
    S16. This would translate to a weak category 3, with hurricane force winds 60
    miles wide and traveling at 16 mph.

    Another possibility to be misled is by ignoring, or not knowing, the width of a
    hurricane. In a narrow hurricane a miss by 20 miles from the path may be OK,
    while with a wide hurricane one would have hurricane force winds 20 miles away
    from the path.