Rina has spent most of of the night trying to fend off some nasty dry air coming from the west. Although the conditions are harsh I still expect Rina to get to a Major Hurricane. Yesterday evening it did briefly get to 103kts which is 120mph winds and a 964.5mb pressure. Now it is 967mb and 110mph storm. Later today the dry air should somewhat cease in front of the coming trough, that is expected to take Rina off to the North and then to the Northeast.
Dry Air west of Rina:
In the models almost all of them agree that the storm gets into the SE gulf, from there, there is a lot of uncertainty with them. The GFDL has an 80kt hurricane hitting southwest florida, and this is the track that is most aligned with mine and Firsthand Weather’s
So what I believe will happen is we will have a major hurricane staying just east of the yucatan with 115-130mph winds, then the storm will enter the gulf with around 110-120mph winds, then finally I think it will get caught with the trough a turn to the east and weaken, but make landfall in Southwestern Florida as a 80-95mph hurricane.
Stay tuned with Firsthand weather!