Firsthand Weather

I was asked by one of your members to join this website and I replied telling him I’d take a look. I’ve yet to fully review the entire website. Now, let’s talk about this Snow event for the Deep South; thirteen days out on January 17; first, it’s 13 days and with each run 12 hours ticks away. As an analyst or forecaster one of my responsibilities is to determine what model best represents with run to run consistency of what the atmosphere is doing, what it’s likely to be doing and there is no way at 13 days that models can interpret with any degree of accuracy whether for example where the 540 decameter line is likely to be which it and the 546 decameter determine snow, ice and all rain. Yes, the models can determine what I call broad strokes or general trends. It’s not solely about the model run for the 17th; it’s each run and what is likely to occur on the 17th; a forecaster’s job is analyze whether there is continuity or run to run differences. It makes for a good story but today’s the 4th about to be 5th; there isn’t a good forecaster that looks at 288 hours from now or 312 hours, 24 hours ago and proclaims it’s going to snow in parts of the Deep South. The bottom line is it’s simply too far out to lock down a snow event that is almost two weeks away. Everybody is entitled to an opinion; however, I expect those opinions to equally bear out the facts.

Thank you for your kind words and the positive comments you extend to your forecasters. I’m at my desk and have looked at the 05/00Z package and now looking at the 05/12Z package. The Arctic Outbreak for the end of the week into early next week will impact the central US and will spread east and southeast; however, will moderate. The state of FL and its citrus crop will not be affected. The past couple of 1000-500mb thickness chart runs push the 540/546 decameter contour further north and cyclogenesis is likely to be closer to the Northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico than previous thought. There continues to be enough differences in the model consensus in the future track of the system up the east coast of the US. Aloft, there are two upper highs; an impressive 578 decameter center over Western Alaska and a 548 decameter center over extreme Northern Canada which 5 upper lows are pinwheeling around and as a result low heights from west to east over the US and a continuation of the cold weather pattern across much of the country east of the Rockies; however with the exception of the Northern and Central US; not as cold as previous outbreaks. “DONE” Sincerely, Bill Berry

Well I’ve recently discovered this web site and enjoy every last dedicated effort to maintain accurate information and believe this is the real deal. As time goes on I will evaluate each blog that I read and continue to be satisfied. Do you have career opportunities with Firsthand Weather because life changes can be expected for the better. Thank you so much for all that you do.