A high-impact winter storm is in the process of developing across the Southern Plains. This winter storm will deliver some of the heaviest snow of the season to this part of the country.
The snow will begin Tuesday night across parts of Colorado and New Mexico, and quickly shift southeast into Kansas, Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle by Wednesday morning. The snow will initially be mixed with rain, but temperatures will quickly cool, allow for all snow.
The snow will shift east into parts of Missouri and Arkansas late-Wednesday into Thursday. It is possible a few flurries may mix in with the rain late in the day across northern Texas.
Some hefty accumulations are possible, thus, a Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory is in place for parts of the Texas Panhandle, southwestern Kansas, and northwestern Oklahoma. It is possible these winter weather products get extended farther south and east on Wednesday.
Snow is currently falling across parts of the Southeast this evening. The snow will continue into the overnight hours for parts of northern Georgia, northern Alabama, eastern Tennessee, and western North Carolina. With temperatures falling into the 20s, travel may become tricky. Due to this, winter weather alerts have been issued.
Most areas will receive a dusting; however, the higher terrain of northern Georgia may receive 1-2″ of snow. The higher terrain of eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina may see several inches of snow tonight.
Farther north, decent snow accumulations are possible tonight, too.
A major storm will impact the eastern-third of the country Sunday through Tuesday. This storm is forecast to bring strong winds, severe storms, and snow to areas east of the Mississippi.
The storm will phase with the northern jet stream, which will pull in cold air and allow for snow across parts of the Southeast, Appalachians, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes. Enough snow may fall, along with cold enough temperatures, to create some travel issues along major Highways & Interstates.
The rain to snow transition will occur late-Sunday night for parts of the Great Lakes & Ohio Valley, and slowly spread southeast throughout Monday. Snow as far south and northern Alabama & northern Georgia can be expected. Along with snow, will be strong northerly winds, which will blow snow, creating low-visibility at times.
Firsthand Weather is still eyeing the potential for wintry weather for parts of the Southeast late-Monday.
A strong cold front will move through the Southeast on Monday. Behind the cold front, significantly colder air will filter into the area. Enough moisture may remain in place late-Monday for the cold air to allow for a brief changeover to snow across parts of Tennessee, northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, northern Georgia, and western North Carolina.
The window will be small, but there is growing confidence that the higher elevations of Georgia, Tennessee, and North Carolina may see light snow accumulations. Light flurries may make it as far south as Birmingham and Atlanta, however, no accumulations are expected. The accumulations would be confined to higher elevation farther north.
There are still questions if enough moisture will remain in place for a transition to snow. The highest confidence for snow is the higher elevation across eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina. This forecast is likely to change over the coming days so keep checking back for updates.
The likelihood of a high-impact storm across the South, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast, post-Thanksgiving, is increasing. This storm looks to provide a variety of weather; from severe storms to wintry weather. The dynamic storm will begin to slowly take shape across the Southern Plains & Mid-South over the holiday weekend and quickly move northeast into early next week.
The Southern Plains & Mid-South will see heavy rain & isolated severe storms over the weekend before the storm really gets its act together early next week.
The storm will ratchet-up a notch as a split jet-stream pattern allows two potent upper-level disturbances, one in the southern branch of the jet stream and one in the northern branch of the jet stream, to merge early next week over the eastern-third of the country. This will allow a potent surface low pressure to develop in the Southeast and ride up the East Coast.
On the east side of the low pressure, warm & moist air will be pulled into the system. This will be a favorable environment for showers and storms. On the west side of the low, cold air will filter into the system. This may allow for light snow to fall across parts of the Southeast late-Monday into early-Tuesday morning. It appears Tennessee, northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, northern Georgia, and western North Carolina may see this wintry precipitation
As always, it will be a battle between the cold air and moisture. Will the cold air move in before the moisture departs? That’s the million dollar question. Firsthand weather will continue to evaluate this over the coming days, but there is growing concern that parts of the Southeast may see a quick chance for wintry weather.
The snow threat will extend northeast into the Appalachians early to middle next week as the low moves northeast and continues to pull in cold air into the system.
Regardless or wintry weather, appreciable precipitation & cooler temperatures are in the forecast for the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast early next week. Widespread 1-3″ of rain are likely and there’s a strong likelihood of below average temperatures for the South & Southeast.
This event is still several days out, and per usual, there are uncertainties regarding the exact details of the storm. Keep checking back for updates!
As we approach December, many who have yet to see the first snow of the season, will see their first snow this upcoming month. Parts of the Great Lakes, Plains, and West have already recorded the first snow of the season. Even western Texas recorded its first snow earlier this season.
If you have yet to see your first snow of the season and are curious when you may, you’re in luck. Numbers from the National Weather Service’s 30-year average database was analyzed to find the date by which the season’s first measurable snow occurs.
Looking at the graphic, October is typically the first month for snowfall in the northern Rockies, the northern Great Lakes, and the northern tip of the Northeast. As we progress through October into November, the average first snowfall spreads equatorially. By December, most states will experience the first snowfall of the season outside of the areas near the Gulf of Mexico.