Hermine turns toward New England

Hermine remains a post-tropical cyclone with a cloud pattern more reminiscent of an extratropical low, but as the storm intensifies, moderate convection has been developing just north of the surface center in the northern semicircle during the past few hours within a region of increasing upper-level diffluence.  This diffluence is expected to increase as the wind shear weakens and if the convection continues to develop, Hermine may gain tropical or sub-tropical characteristics before the anticipated weakening begins to occur on Tuesday over cooler water.  Data from an earlier reconnaissance mission along with recent scatterometer data suggest that the intensity remains unchanged at 70 MPH with a minimum central pressure of 997 millibars.  Hermine is also beginning to be picked up by the radar in Taunton and Upton.   Rain bands have already begun to move over the Islands and Cape and those will move further inland with time.  Some places will see an inch or 2 of run from gusty tropical downpours from early this morning through the overnight hours.

Hermine’s Location

The initial motion is a slow northward drift at about 3 MPH.  Hermine is about 300 Miles from the Eastern tip of Long Island and about 260 miles South of Nantucket.  A gradual turn toward the north-northwest and northwest is expected to occur this afternoon and tonight.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

The coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor and from New Haven to Sagamore Beach, including Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over portions of the warning area by this afternoon.  Large waves, strong rip currents, and a small storm surge is expected as Hermine makes its closest pass to the coast.  Low lying coastal areas that are usually dry may flood but major coastal flooding is not expected.  Significant beach erosion is expected.

Robert Millette