January Could Bring The Coldest Temperatures In Decades

I have been analyzing forecast model data over the last few days, and I continue to be absolutely blown away by the kind of Arctic outbreak that we’re going to likely be dealing with in January. I try to always be extremely careful in how I word these articles as they always seem to have their way of getting around the internet, so trust me when I say that I carefully consider what I say before I put it out on this site. With that said, I am becoming increasingly convinced that the eastern half of the United States could experience a record-setting Arctic outbreak beginning next week. Allow me to break everything down for you. . .

The expected pattern change is textbook for an expansive area of cold, Arctic air to dive into the United States and push south as time progresses. The pattern is also going to be favorable for several winter events to occur over a relatively short period of time, which is why you’re likely hearing a lot of talk right now about a big winter storm expected in the Northeast by the end of the week. Somebody is going to get A LOT of snow from that, but I’ll get more into that later in the article. If that’s not enough, we could be dealing with another big winter storm by this weekend leading into next week, which could actually dump snow from the Deep South into the Tennessee Valley on up to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states. I talked about all of that last night.

With the negative AO/NAO and positive PNA combination, this is classic for cold and storminess in the eastern U.S. Now this is where it gets crazy and exciting for those of you that love snow like I do. With the kind of deep cold that is going to lock in for a while and the above average sea surface temperatures off the eastern seaboard, any system that rides up the eastern coast will likely pull in a lot of moisture and deepen. Warm, moist air being pulled north plus deep layer cold air being in place is going to result in high amounts of snow. You remember this past Atlantic hurricane season that basically didn’t happen because of African dust that hindered anything much from developing? Because we didn’t get any impressive tropical systems up near the United States that could upwell those colder waters to the surface, we now have much warmer sea surface temperatures. Isn’t it amazing how everything is somehow connected?

Now tomorrow, I’m going to get into more specifics on the Thursday/Friday system that goings to likely bomb off the eastern seaboard and dump copious amounts of snow somewhere likely in the Northeast! Model guidance is supporting this happening, but this system is very complex, which is why I want another day or so to watch this before I get too detailed with my forecast. Snow ratios are going to be high so whoever gets the snow is likely going to get a lot of it as I mentioned earlier. Here are the snowfall totals by Friday night according to the latest European model.

European Model Snowfall Totals By Friday Night

European Model Snowfall Totals By Friday Night

After this storm moves through, we have Arctic air that blasts into the eastern U.S this weekend., particularly spilling into the Northeast. Now, the forecast models differ quite a bit on how cold it will get, but the European model goes extreme with the cold. I know that the European tends to have a cold bias, but with the snow cover that will be over the Northeast, I’m leaning more towards the European model, although maybe not THAT cold. Maybe add about 5 to 7 degrees to those numbers for Saturday morning, and it may be about right. Still you have temperatures near or below zero for a large area. By the way. this isn’t the record cold that I was talking about after we get through the weekend. Here are the expected minimum temperatures according to the European model by Saturday morning.

European Model Forecasted Temperatures For Saturday Morning

European Model Forecasted Temperatures For Saturday Morning

We get another system, potentially bigger than the Thursday/Friday system, that will probably dump snow much further south than the first system. That’s the system that I was talking about dumping snow in the Deep South and areas northward. Snow ratios will be high if this occurs and could give many areas a lot of snow that typically don’t get that much.

We’re going to get the main plunge of cold air next week, and it could be record-breaking. Assuming that the European model is overdoing the cold temperatures, it would still break records even if temperatures were warmer than being predicted by this model. These are temperatures for Tuesday morning predicted by the European model. How do you like 0 degrees all the way down to Atlanta?

European Model Forecasted Temperatures For Tuesday Morning

European Model Forecasted Temperatures For Tuesday Morning

I hope that this article gives you a heads up as to what could definitely take place. Many meteorologists/forecasters right now are being quite conservative with their forecasts, which is probably for good reason. But if you’ve been following my forecasts for any time, you know that I pretty much tell you how I see it. Give it a couple of days, and your local meteorologists will probably start talking about this a lot more. Of course, keep coming back to Firsthand Weather because I’ll be updating the site a lot over the upcoming days, and if you don’t already, be sure to follow our updates on Facebook. That’s all I have for tonight. Have a great night!

Get Ready For A Wild and Bitterly Cold January

Firsthand Weather is finally back up and running after being down a couple of months. Everything should be working fine, but just let me know in the comments if you have any issues. As I’ve stated several times over the past few weeks, I appreciate your patience. I know a lot of people depend on our updates, and the whole point of taking the site down was to make it even better! I hope you like it.

Anyways, I want to very briefly get into what can be expected across the United States as we’re about to begin another year, and I’ll do a much more extensive update tomorrow. In other words, I just want to hit the high points tonight. We’re going to be dealing with some major Arctic air that’s going to push southward as we move into this week. As you can see, we already have bitterly cold temperatures in the northern Plains with temperatures down to below negative 30 in parts of northern Minnesota.

Current Temperatures As Of 10 pm EST

Current Temperatures As Of 10 pm EST

We’re going to have one of the most impressive starts to January that we have seen in quite a while, and from what I can see, the first 10 to 15 days are going to be cold and stormy for the eastern United States, which could continue for the entire month. With us going into a negative AO/NAO and neutral/positive PNA pattern, that is going to favor cold in the eastern half of the nation with several winter storms likely taking place.

We’re watching a system this week that’s going to cut across the U.S. dumping snow across northern sections of the country and eventually giving parts of the Northeast their fair share of snowfall. As we move into this weekend and early next week (7 to 9 days out), the forecast models are starting to pick up on a potentially big winter event in that timeframe. The deep South, Tennessee Valley, and on up to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast could get dumped on if this were to pan out, and the only reason that I bring this up is because we’re entering into a pattern that will favor something like this occurring. I’ll have more on all of this in future updates.

One last thing. If you look at the latest run of the Euro, we’re talking record-breaking cold beginning the second week of January. I’m really going to have to study everything a bit more extensively, but this has some areas getting temperatures 40 to 50 degrees below normal. Even if temperatures were 20 to 30 degrees below normal in those regions, we’d still have a very impressive Arctic outbreak on our hands.

Departure from Average Temperatures on January 7th.

Departure from Average Temperatures on January 7th.

It’s really looking to me like January is going to be cold and wild for many across the U.S. Like I said, my goal in this article was to just hit the high points, and tomorrow, I’ll try to bring everything together and make sense out of why all of this is going to occur. That’s all for now. Have a great night!