Forecast and Severe Outlook: Saturday, April 30th

Additional severe weather is Forecast after several days of Tornado Watches and multiple tornadoes across multiple states.   Yesterday featured one Tornado that came pretty close to Matt in Norman Oklahoma but fortunately all is well and he continues on with school to get ready to come back to us in a couple of weeks after finals.

The current Surface Analysis

Surface map us

Today’s National Forecast

Weather Forecast map

A strong storm over the Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley will slowly move eastward to the Ohio Valley by Sunday evening. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the associated front from parts of the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley and the Western Gulf Coast. This convection will move to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley and Central and Southern Appalachians while extending southwestward to the Lower Mississippi Valley by Sunday morning.  The showers and thunderstorms will expand into parts of the Southern Mid-Atlantic and Southeast by Sunday evening.

Rain and higher elevation snow will develop over parts of the Central Rockies and Central High Plains through Sunday morning.

Rain will develop over parts of the Central High Plains eastward to parts of the Western Ohio Valley on Saturday morning that will expand into parts of the Upper Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast and Northern Mid-Atlantic by Sunday morning. Rain will continue over parts of the Central High Plains and Central Plains through Sunday afternoon.

Current Model Analysis

6 hour model

On Saturday, strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast to move through Coastal Texas up into Arkansas. The cold front causing this convection will slowly slide east during the day.  This system is also bringing rain back across Kansas and Nebraska with heavy snow falling in Colorado, Southeastern Wyoming and portions of Western Nebraska.

Over the remainder of the Rockies and the Pacific coastline, showers and snow showers abound as a weak low pressure system makes it south towards Arizona.

Another weak low moves away from the East Coast and could bring some rain showers to the Mid-Atlantic states and Southern New England.

18 hour model

Saturday afternoon, the cold front will move quickly east and shift the axis of severe weather away from the Southern Plains and into the Ohio and Mississippi River Valleys. Heavy rains should be expected in Southern South Dakota and Nebraska.  Snow will continue into the afternoon over the Rockies of Colorado, Wyoming and Nebraska.

A low over Arizona will begin to bring rain to Southern Nevada and Northern and Central Arizona as shower activity dies out during the afternoon over the remainder of the Pacific Coast.

The Northeast looks dry after the rain moves out this morning.

36 hour model

By early Sunday, Rain will be making its way through the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic states on its way to the Northeast. Heavy rain should fall in the Appalachians and help dent the drought in the region.  Further west, Mountain snows will continue as weak low pressure systems continue to pivot through the Rockies.

Current Severe Weather Outlook

Fire Weather Update

Fire Weather

No Critical Fire Weather areas

Severe Weather Analysis

Summary

Strong to Severe thunderstorms are forecast today into this evening. Storms will develop across the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Ozarks, and the Ohio Valley.

Severe Outlook

Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 291,734 28,685,188 Houston, TX…Memphis, TN…Nashville, TN…New Orleans, LA…St. Louis, MO…
MARGINAL 214,264 32,249,913 Indianapolis, IN…Charlotte, NC…Atlanta, GA…Cincinnati, OH…Montgomery, AL…

Analysis

A closed upper level low is forecast to move slowly over the Central Plains and Middle to Lower Missouri Valley today. The cold front associated with this system moved east southeast across the Ozarks and ArkLaTex regions to the Upper Texas Coastal Plain bringing severe weather to the area.  We expect extensive early day convection along and ahead of this front near Coastal Texas this morning.

A relatively strong belt of deep layer southwesterly winds is forecast to overspread the area from the Ozarks to the Central Appalachians. The warm sector ahead of the cold front is seeing Dewpoints rise behind the warm front to the north.  Modest destabilization is expected due to day time heating even with the cloud cover from earlier convection.  Expect strong to severe thunderstorms to develop across Missouri and into Northeast Arkansas up into the Ohio Valley.  These storms will be in an area of strong veering wind profiles that could support supercell development.  These supercells would likely have severe hail and wind and possible develop a couple of tornadoes.

Further south, Severe Thunderstorm Watches were in effect overnight from Monroe Louisiana and near McAlester Oklahoma down to the Texas and Mexico border near Del Rio. Multiple squall lines moved through the area and continue on at this hour.  While activity is expected to weaken mid-morning, cold pool and outflow boundary focused reintensification is forecast, especially in the moist and unstable warm sector over parts of Louisiana Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee.  A few tornadoes may be possible as these storms progress to the east through strong low level winds in the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee River Valleys.

This Week’s Flood Risk

Flood Risk

Yesterday’s Storm Reports

storm reports 2

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather

 

Forecast and Severe Outlook: Wednesday April 27th

Severe Thunderstorm Watches from last night are now ending as thunderstorms have left damage from hail and wind in their wakes.  A few tornadoes spawned across the area from Texas up through Indiana but conditions were not a bad as they could have been with the severity of those storms.  Now for a look at today’s forecast.

The current Surface Analysis

Surface map us

Today’s National Forecast

Weather Forecast map

A strong storm over the Central Plains will move eastward to the Eastern Ohio Valley by Thursday evening. The system will produce showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the associated boundary from parts of the Central and Southern Plains and the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley that will move eastward to the Mid-Atlantic and Eastern Ohio Valley to the Southeast and parts of the Central Gulf Coast by Thursday.  Rain will also develop over parts of the Northern and Central Plains and the Northern High Plains through Thursday afternoon.  Rain will move into parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley into parts of the Upper Great Lakes overnight Wednesday and move into parts of the Great Lakes and Western Ohio Valley by Thursday evening.  Similarly, highest elevation snow and lower elevation rain will develop over parts of the Northern High Plains and Central Rockies through Thursday morning.

A second storm will move onshore over the West Coast and move southeastward to the Southern Rockies by Thursday evening. Rain will develop over the Pacific Northwest and Northern California Coast on Wednesday morning that will expand inland to parts of the Northern and Central Rockies by Wednesday evening with snow at some of the highest elevations.  The rain will settle over parts of Southern California and the Great Basin and the Central Rockies and Southwest by Thursday morning.  By Thursday evening rain will expand into parts of the Northern Intermountain Region to parts of the Northern High Plains and into parts of Southern California as well as parts of the Southern Rockies and Southern High Plains.  The rain and highest elevation snow will continue over the Great Basin and Southwest to the Central and Northern Rockies through  Thursday evening, too.

Current Model Analysis

6 hour model

On early Wednesday, a strengthening low pressure over the Central Plains will continue to bring heavy rains and severe weather to the region. Rain should be falling from South Central Texas straight up to North Dakota with snow falling in the mountains from Colorado to Montana as two weak low pressure systems help create additional instability over the Rockies.

In the Pacific Northwest, rain should be falling just off the coastline and showers should be expected to move on shore from time to time. This area of rain won’t hold together well and should mostly dissipate during the day.

In the eastern half of the US, rain is forecast to fall from St. Louis east along a frontal boundary straight to the coast of the DelMarVa. Showers and thunderstorms should be expected in Florida during the day and the snow that fell in Northern portions of New England should have moved well into Canada with only a few snow showers remaining in Northern Maine.

18 hour model

Wednesday afternoon, the cold front will move quickly east and shift the axis of severe weather away from the Southern Plains and into the Ohio and Mississippi River Valleys. Heavy rains should be expected in South Dakota and Northern Nebraska.

Snow and shower activity will be more focused over the Pacific Northwest and the Rockies but will diminish in overall coverage.

In the east, the heavier rains in the morning will begin to let up along the DelMarVa but will still continue out in Southern Illiniois and Western Kentucky.

36 hour model

By early Thursday, the next low pressure system should be making its way out of the Rockies by bringing heavy snow into Wyoming and Utah with rain on the Plains from Wyoming east into South Dakota and Nebraska.

For the Northeast and Great Lakes, the system that brought Severe Weather to the Plains on Tuesday will bring rain and snow. Many of the same areas that received snow on Tuesday will see it again on Thursday while areas that received rain will receive another good soaking rain.

 

Current Severe Weather Outlook

Fire Weather Update

Fire Weather

No Critical Fire Weather areas are forecast

Severe Weather Analysis

Summary

 

Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are forecast for the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley, Western Tennessee Valley and Southeast Texas.

Severe Outlook

Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 279,117 24,136,894 Houston, TX…Memphis, TN…St. Louis, MO…Baton Rouge, LA…Shreveport, LA…
MARGINAL 278,557 35,670,593 Indianapolis, IN…Nashville, TN…Kansas City, MO…New Orleans, LA…Virginia Beach, VA…

Analysis

An upper level low is drifting slowly eastward across the Central Plains. An elongated Mesoscale Convective System, spanning from the Kansas Missouri Border to the Edwards Plateau in Texas, is moving southeastward ahead of this system.  This MCS will slowly die out and the remnants will be over the Louisiana and Texas coastline by lunch time Wednesday.  Locally strong winds and hail are the primary threats with the MCS.

In the wake of this MCS, daytime heating will contribute to upward development and intensification over the Lower Mississippi Valley near the boundary layer. These storms should move Northeast and large scale forcing over the Mid-Mississippi Valley will help them grow.  As the warm front lifts north into Illinois, the earlier activity associated with Tuesday’s severe weather will help to keep the instability low.  While some hail and strong winds are possible, this severe risk remains low.

 

This Week’s Flood Risk

Flood Risk

Yesterday’s Storm Reports

storm reports 2

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather

 

Forecast and Update for Significant Severe event

Today’s delayed and abridged forecast. We are focusing on the Severe Weather Threat for the Central and Southern Plains. Another Severe Weather update should be out this afternoon. Any preparations you have left to be made for this event should be made as quickly as possible.

 

Today’s National Forecast

01 National Forecast

A strong storm over the Central Plains will move slowly eastward to the Middle Mississippi Valley by Wednesday evening with a quasi-stationary front extending from the Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England to the Central Plains. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and near the boundary from parts of the Mid-Atlantic Coast westward to the Central Plains. These could affect homes, consider talking to Hamilton Roofing they can help you figure out an action plan if your roof is severely affected. The front will sag southward to parts of the Southern Mid-Atlantic westward to the Middle Mississippi Valley by Wednesday evening.

Similarly, showers and thunderstorms will develop along and near the boundary from parts of the Mid-Atlantic roughly northwestward to parts of the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. In addition, a cold front associated with the system will move from the Central/Southern High Plains eastward to the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley by Wednesday.

Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the front from parts of the Central Plains to the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday afternoon advancing eastward to the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley by Wednesday evening, with showers and thunderstorms developing over parts of the Central and Eastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday afternoon into evening.

Furthermore, rain and higher elevation snow will develop over parts of the Northern Plains/High Plains to the Northern Rockies and from parts of the Great Basin to the Central High Plains from Tuesday morning into Wednesday evening.

Meanwhile, an upper-level trough over the Eastern Pacific will move to the West Coast by Wednesday evening. The system will produce rain along the Pacific Northwest and Northern California Coast by early Wednesday morning that will move inland to parts of the Northern/Central Rockies by Wednesday afternoon producing snow at the higher elevations of the Northern and Central Rockies and Great Basin. The rain and higher elevation snow will continue from parts of the Northwest to Northern and Central California eastward to the Northern/Central Rockies through Wednesday evening.

 

Severe Weather Update

severe outlook

Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MODERATE 66,843 3,497,331 Oklahoma City, OK…Wichita, KS…Norman, OK…Lawton, OK…Edmond, OK…
ENHANCED 123,051 15,066,402 Dallas, TX…Fort Worth, TX…Kansas City, MO…Tulsa, OK…Arlington, TX…
SLIGHT 215,090 31,205,506 Philadelphia, PA…San Antonio, TX…Austin, TX…Baltimore, MD…Washington, DC…
MARGINAL 215,410 38,144,436 New York, NY…Cincinnati, OH…Newark, NJ…Lexington-Fayette, KY…Louisville, KY…

 

Tornado Risk

02 hail

Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 83,449 9,968,722 Dallas, TX…Fort Worth, TX…Oklahoma City, OK…Arlington, TX…Wichita, KS…
10 % 83,916 10,011,584 Dallas, TX…Fort Worth, TX…Oklahoma City, OK…Arlington, TX…Wichita, KS…
5 % 107,573 6,581,830 Tulsa, OK…Lincoln, NE…Waco, TX…Olathe, KS…Killeen, TX…
2 % 149,128 9,619,753 San Antonio, TX…Austin, TX…Kansas City, MO…Omaha, NE…Shreveport, LA…

Hail Risk

03 actual hail

Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 176,470 17,276,064 Dallas, TX…Fort Worth, TX…Oklahoma City, OK…Kansas City, MO…Tulsa, OK…
45 % 66,946 3,549,691 Oklahoma City, OK…Wichita, KS…Norman, OK…Lawton, OK…Edmond, OK…
30 % 86,289 10,647,223 Dallas, TX…Fort Worth, TX…Tulsa, OK…Arlington, TX…Plano, TX…
15 % 199,275 30,075,387 Philadelphia, PA…San Antonio, TX…Austin, TX…Baltimore, MD…Washington, DC…
5 % 244,342 41,578,980 New York, NY…St. Louis, MO…Cincinnati, OH…Newark, NJ…Lexington-Fayette, KY…

SUMMARY

A substantial severe weather event is forecast for today and tonight over parts of the Central and Southern Plains. Significant Tornadoes, Destructive Hail, and Strong Damaging Winds are all possible. Damaging winds are also expected in the complex of thunderstorms currently moving across the Lower Missouri Valley and Middle Mississippi Valley regions this morning. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for that complex.

Sever Weather Analysis

Two mid and upper level features are moving across the country today and the interaction between the 2 is setting up out scenario for Severe Weather. The first shortwave, located near Southeastern Lower Michigan, is forecast to move through New York and Pennsylvania this afternoon. The second system will move from near the Texas Panhandle and become the primary 500 millibar low over Northwestern Kansas by the end of the day. This will lead to a trough extending from Western Oklahoma to the Edwards Plateau region of Texas.

A Warm front will move north across the plains and bring plenty of warm and moist air behind it. The dryline, which will initially be over Southwestern Kansas will shift eastward into Western Oklahoma and West Central Texas before being over taken by the cold front.

Two to three rounds of thunderstorms are forecast for today and tonight, initiating near the dry line and then cold front with some forming in the warm sector as well. The greatest threat will be along and south of the warm front and outflow boundary that moves into Southern Nebraska, and along the dryline and cold front from Central and Eastern Kansas, down through Central and Eastern Oklahoma into Central Texas.

South of there, while storms can still be severe, the overall number of storms should be less.

Thunderstorms will produce very large to giant hail and have very strong damaging wind gusts with tornadoes likely in the warm sector from and mature and discrete supercells.

Given the very large buoyancy expected, high surface dewpoints, and the steep mid-level lapse rates, updraft growth, and thus thunderstorm development, will be very quick. Hail, both severe and non-severe, should be expected in many places. The tornado risk will increase as the day goes on when ambient surface winds begin to strengthen.

Remember, all preparations for severe weather need to be completed as soon as possible. These thunderstorms will develop very rapidly and a storm could form and be severe in very short amounts of time. While we will be keeping you as up to date about severe weather watches as facebook allows, Firsthand Weather does not put out severe weather warnings. Facebook simply doesn’t allow us to have the capability to do so at this time, so it is important to stay in tune with your local media sources for the very latest in warnings in your area. To all our readers in this region, be safe, good luck, and god speed.

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather

Severe Weather Update for Tuesday

Severe Weather has moved into the Great Lakes region and will move into the Central and Southern Plains Tuesday.

Current Situation:

Currently, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch exists for the Chicago area extending towards Milwaukee up into Wisconsin and down throughout Northern Illinois.  Multiple reports of hail have occurred in this region as this system is slowly combining with the new system moving out of the Rockies.  Additional Severe Thunderstorms are possible with activity expected to lessen after nightfall.severe watches

Tuesday Severe Weather Update:

severe outlook

Summary:

Significant Severe Thunderstorms are forecast to occur across parts of the Southern and Central Plains Tuesday afternoon into the night time hours.  Tornadoes, some strong and long lived, will be possible in addition to Very Large to Giant Hail and Strong Damaging Winds.

siginificant severe

 

Analysis:

A deep upper level trough currently extends from the Pacific Northwest into the Western Great Basin.  This trough will continue eastward today and move from the Four Corners region into the Central Plains on Tuesday.   A shortwave trough moving along this trough, will move through the region overnight and lead to surface cyclogenesis, the development or strengthening of cyclonic circulation in the atmosphere, this afternoon and overnight.  Low-level flow associated with this cyclogenesis will persist overnight and bring ample amounts of low-level moisture into the Plains overnight and Tuesday.  Another shortwave moving through and into the Southern Plains on Tuesday will help enhance this moisture flow, leading to dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s

The second shortwave is expected to form into a surface low across the Central Plains Tuesday afternoon with a dryline forming over the Central Plains.  The Thermodynamic environment ahead of this dryline will see temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s with the aforementioned mid to upper 60s dewpoints.  Very strong instability and CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) will be more than supportive for Severe Thunderstorms.  While the overall wind shear profiles are good, low-level flow is expected to be weaker than what is generally associated with numerous long lived tornadoes, so the Storm Prediction Center has not issued a High Risk for the Plains at this time.  With that said, numerous and wide spread severe thunderstorms are still anticipated with all severe threat possible from the Red River up through South Central and Southeastern Nebraska.

Further south of there, convective coverage will not be as widespread, as southerly mid-level flow favors a linear squall line type of development vs discrete supercellular development north of the Red River.  This is not to say that supercells are not expected in this region, just that they will not be as numerous and that squall line and cellular cluster development will be more widespread.  While some sections of the Southern Plains may see Isolated to Scattered coverage, all severe hazards are still possible.

As you can see from the maps, the moderate risk has been slightly extended from the earlier maps posted with the forecast today.  This area may be slightly expanded as more information on thermodynamic profiles increases throughout Tuesday morning.  Based on the second map, significant severe weather can be expected all the way to Southern Texas.  This should serve as a reminder that even though you are only in the enhanced or slight regions, significant severe weather can occur, it just won’t be as widespread.  Anywhere in the shaded region on the second map should be prepared for significant severe storms.

The Tuesday morning forecast for Firsthand Weather will have a delayed release to attempt to bring the latest Severe Weather information we can bring you and we will continue to monitor this situation and model guidance overnight tonight.  I hope to have 2 updates out Tuesday,  one with the regular but delayed forecast, and another early Tuesday afternoon as things get started.

 

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather

Forecast and Severe Outlook: Monday, April 25th

While the forecast for today brings a wide mix of news, the real weather stories remain the flooding in Texas and the Tuesday Severe Weather Threat.  For Texas, The Cypress Creek and Colorado River have dropped below flood stage but the majority of rivers in the area remain at or above the minimum flood stage, with the San Bernard River still in Major Flood stage.  These conditions are forecast to crest in the last of these areas over the next 2 days before diminishing completely.

For Tuesday, there remains a Significant risk of Severe Weather with the Storm Prediction Center adding a region of Moderate risk to the map.  There is a good chance that an area of High Risk will be added by tomorrow.   For a quick outline and maps of the event, please read down and see our Severe Weather Section, additional information will be posted Monday afternoon.

The current Surface Analysis

Surface map us

Today’s National Forecast

Weather Forecast map

A developing upper-level low over the Great Basin will move eastward to the Central Rockies by Tuesday evening as weakening low pressure over Upper Midwest and it’s associated front will merge with the storm coming out of the Great Basin by Tuesday morning. The system will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Great Lakes and Upper Mississippi Valley into parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley.  This system will expand into parts of the Lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by Monday evening.  Rain will also develop over parts of the Northern High Plains and Northern Plains on Monday morning continuing through Monday night.  Showers and thunderstorms will also develop over parts of the Western Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the Eastern Gulf Coast into the Southern Appalachians on Monday afternoon into evening.

Additionally, the showers and thunderstorms that will move into parts of the Northern Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday morning will extend from the Mid-Atlantic westward to the Western Ohio Valley and Middle Mississippi Valley by Tuesday evening. Rain will also develop over parts of the Upper Great Lakes into New England overnight Monday ending over the Upper Great Lakes by Tuesday afternoon.

Current Model Analysis

6 hour model

On early Monday, A strong but weakening low pressure system will bring rain from the Great Lakes over through North Dakota with rain and snow in Montana, as well as rain along the accompanying cold front from Minnesota down into Kansas and Oklahoma. Thunderstorms have been present with the front overnight Sunday and the risk of severe weather will continue moving east with the front as it heads toward Chicago.

Another low pressure system over Southern Nevada will create an area of instability over the Rockies which will lead to valley rains and mountain snows. Several inches of snow can be expected in the higher elevations, especially over Northern California and Nevada.

In the Eastern portion of the Country, high pressure dominates for a generally warm and clear day with some air mass showers and thunderstorms possible across the Southeast and later in the day in the Northeast as the aforementioned storm moves east over the Lakes.

18 hour model

By Monday afternoon, low pressure slides east over Minnesota and begins bringing rain to Western New York along the warm front. Rain will continue through the Great Lakes region back through North Dakota and Montana with some areas of snow changing to rain during the day.

The low pressure over the Rockies intensifys some and will bring a larger area of snow to the Mountains in Nevada.

The high pressure over the Atlantic will slide South off the Carolinas helping with daytime heating and airmass showers and thunderstorms over Florida and Georgia.

36 hour model

By early Tuesday, the forecast calls for low pressure from the Lakes will shift east to New England as cold air slides south.  This could bring moderate snow to areas north of a line from Watertown New York to Portsmouth New Hampshire.  This line will fluctuate along elevations and will shift as the system moves east.

The low over the Rockies begins to eject out into the Plains over Colorado and the snow will shift east with it over Wyoming and portions of Colorado. Rain will fall down elevation on the Plains from Wyoming through South Dakota and Nebraska.

Current Severe Weather Outlook

Critical Fire Weather Update

Fire Weather

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 94,520 5,231,602 Phoenix, AZ…Albuquerque, NM…Mesa, AZ…Glendale, AZ…Chandler, AZ…

A strong mid-level disturbance will amplify over the Intermountain West today, and is forecast to spread strong mid-level flow into the Four Corners region. The Dryline will mark the dividing line between warm and windy conditions and the moistening air to the East.

Surface winds will strengthen area wide beginning late this morning with gusts as high as 60 MPH expected. 2 Critical areas have been delineated on the map in this outlook.  These are the regions that high winds will combine with the lowest Relative Humidity values under 15% over dry fuel beds.

Today’s Severe Weather Outlook

Severe Outlook

Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 29,335 13,108,281 Chicago, IL…Milwaukee, WI…Madison, WI…Aurora, IL…Rockford, IL…
MARGINAL 123,442 12,941,350 Detroit, MI…Grand Rapids, MI…Warren, MI…Sterling Heights, MI…Topeka, KS…

Severe Weather Analysis

SUMMARY

A few strong to severe storms are expected from a portion of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes area with a threat for large hail and damaging winds this afternoon and evening. Other strong storms are expected across a portion of the Central High Plains this evening and Northeastern Kansas tonight

 

Analysis

A weakening shortwave trough currently over the Central and Northern Plains is forecast to shift into the Great Lakes. A stalled cold front will extend from Wisconsin southward to Kansas and will impact the warm sector where daytime heating will warm the boundary layer this afternoon.  Storms are expected to redevelop this afternoon from Southern Wisconsin to Northern Illinois.  Wind shear will be sufficient for a few supercells with large hail and damaging winds as the primary threats before activity weakens after sunset.

West of there, as the warm front develops along with the low that is moving out of the Rockies, moist flow will return to the Central Plains. This moisture will allow a few storms to initiate in the upslope flow along the Rockies.  High based supercells capable of downburst winds and large hail are likely across Western Nebraska continuing into the night.  Eastern portions on Nebraska and Kansas will be impacted by the same set up and high based thunderstorms with hail are possible.

Looking forward to Tuesday, as predicted here, a moderate risk for severe weather has been added. Significant severe weather is expected over the Plains.  Any and all preparations you need to make should be completed by tonight.

Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook

day 2 severe

Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 175,496 17,072,997 San Antonio, TX…Dallas, TX…Austin, TX…Fort Worth, TX…Oklahoma City, OK…
MODERATE 55,875 3,058,241 Oklahoma City, OK…Wichita, KS…Norman, OK…Edmond, OK…Midwest City, OK…
ENHANCED 79,794 9,650,655 Dallas, TX…Fort Worth, TX…Tulsa, OK…Arlington, TX…Plano, TX…
SLIGHT 136,890 11,357,501 San Antonio, TX…Austin, TX…Kansas City, MO…Omaha, NE…Overland Park, KS…
MARGINAL 211,757 32,736,160 Philadelphia, PA…Baltimore, MD…Washington, DC…Cincinnati, OH…Lexington-Fayette, KY…
Significant Severe Thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the Southern and Central Plains Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Strong, long lived Tornadoes are possible in addition to very large, and potentially giant, hail and strong damaging straight line winds.

This Week’s Flood Risk

Flood Risk

Yesterday’s Storm Reports

storm reports 2

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather

 

Forecast and Severe Outlook: Saturday, April 23rd

The forecast for river heights in Texas looks better than in days past as many rivers continue to fall out of major flood stage.  While some rain is expected in the area later this week water levels should have decreased by then.  The real story during this week is the chance for a major severe weather outbreak centering around Oklahoma and Kansas.  We will continue to monitor this situation as it unfolds and have all the details for you over the coming days.

The current Surface Analysis

Surface map us

Today’s National Forecast

Weather Forecast map

An upper-level low over the Great Basin is forecast to move eastward to the Northern Plains by Sunday evening. The system will produce rain with embedded thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains that will expand into parts of the Central/Southern Rockies by Saturday evening.   Overnight Saturday, a region of rain and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Northern Plains that will move into the Upper Great Lakes by Sunday morning.  By Sunday evening, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley.  Rain and highest elevation snow will develop over parts of the Great Basin/Central Rockies on Saturday morning into parts of the Northern Rockies by Saturday evening.  Rain and highest elevation snow will continue over the Northern/Central Rockies through Sunday evening.

Current Model Analysis

6 hour model

The middle of the country is taking some time to dry out this morning and will be able to do so for the weekend. While many of the rivers and streams have begun to drop back below flood stage, major flooding is still a concern for some locations as the flood waters move down stream.

Wet weather will begin the day along the East Coast with showers and a few embedded thunderstorms early this morning taking place along a frontal boundary. High pressure moves in from the North to push it all so temperatures won’t quite be as warm to begin the day.

On the West Coast, Southern California remains dry while the Pacific Northwest gets rain and snow showers and could pick up some decent snowfalls in the Northern Mountains of California.

18 hour model

By Saturday afternoon, rain along the East Coast is mostly off shore with some excpetions in Eastern New England, along the DelMarVa and the Outer Banks. High pressure moves in over the Great Lakes and takes control of most of the area.

A Low pressure system moving over the Northern Rockies will bring some Valley rains and mountain snows From Nevada and Utah north into Montana.

The rest of the country should remain relatively dry.

36 hour model

By early Sunday, the system in the Plains over South Dakota begins to strengthen and expand bringing rain and snow from Eastern Idaho to Michigan and as far South as Nebraska.  Some daytime heating showers will pop up over Southern Texas as the next Low pressure system bring rain and snow to the Pacific Northwest as it moves southeast from Canada.

Current Severe Weather Outlook

Fire Weather Update

Fire Weather

Severe Outlook

Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 127,641 593,807 Rapid City, SD…Garden City, KS…North Platte, NE…Pierre, SD…Lexington, NE…

Severe Weather Analysis

SUMMARY

Isolated Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are forecast across the Northern and Central Plains Saturday evening.

Analysis

Early morning water vapor imagery depicts a well-defined mid-level trough over Nevada. This trough will move over Western Wyoming before reaching the High Plains by daybreak Sunday morning. Low level moisture will begin to advance northward across the Plains as dewpoints rise into the 50s.    It is expected that strong heating along the boundary layer will allows surface parcels to reach their convective temperatures late this afternoon.  Isolated thunderstorms should develop along the lee trough and Dryline, aided by the approaching trough.  Gusty winds and marginally severe hail will be the greatest risk until well after nightfall.

This Week’s Flood Risk

Flood Risk

Yesterday’s Storm Reports

storm reports 2

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather

 

Forecast and Severe Outlook: Wednesday April 20th

The Forecast calls for Strong the severe thunderstorms continue across Texas though the Severe Thunderstorm watch that was in effect over night has now expired.  Another round of severe weather is expected today.

The current Surface Analysis

Surface map us

Today’s National Forecast

Weather Forecast map

The system that brought widespread heavy precipitation flooding to portions of the southern and central plains will slowly track to the east through the end of the week. Showers and thunderstorms will persist for much of the southern/central plains and portions of the western Gulf Coast today before expanding into the Midwest and Upper Midwest by tonight into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday. Some of the storms that develop in northern Texas could become severe. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk for portions of the Texas today. Locally heavy rain will be also possible, which may result in flash flooding for some areas. An excessive rainfall outlook have been issued for portions of the southern plains and the Lower Mississippi Valley today.

Excessive rainfall

Warm conditions will continue for most of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to spread into the region by Thursday afternoon/evening ahead of the advancing system. Most of eastern third of the CONUS will have widespread precipitation by Friday morning.

A vast portion of the West will also remain relatively dry with well-above normal temperatures. High pressure at the mid and upper-levels of the atmosphere will help to keep coverage of precipitation scattered, and will also keep high temperatures 10 to 25 degrees above average today and Thursday. More widespread showers are forecast to begin spreading into the coastal Northwest by late Thursday as a Pacific frontal boundary approaches. Snow is forecast for Sierras – highest elevations could have snow accumulations near 10 inches.

Current Model Analysis

6 hour model Forecast

Rain in the Houston area will have ended for this morning but heavy rains outside the Dallas region will continue to exacerbate conditions there. Those heavy rains will extend up into Oklahoma and Kansas with some lighter rain into Missouri and Nebraska this morning.

Mountain snow will continue in the Rockies though warmer temperatures may turn some of that precipitation to rain, especially near Western Wyoming and Eastern Utah.

Some rain showers will prevail over Northern California and Southern Oregon as a weak and relatively dry low pressure system moves over the Pacific Northwest but the Southwest looks to remain dry.

In the Northeast, rain and snow showers begin the day while the rest of the East Coast looks dry.18 hour model

By Wednesday afternoon, the heaviest rain will be near the Dallas area as rain moves back into the Houston area. Rain will extend from New Orleans up along the Mississippi River toward the Iowa Minnesota border.

36 hour model

By early Thursday, the system in the Plains, wrapping up over Wisconsin, continues to bring heavy rain and severe weather to the Plains while the snow in the Rockies finally winds down as high pressure develops.  The Coastlines remain clear and dry under the influence of high pressure with only a break away batch of showers moving through the Northwest.

 

Current Severe Weather Outlook

Fire Weather Update

Fire Weather

Severe Outlook

Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 31,502 643,776 Lubbock, TX…Amarillo, TX…Abilene, TX…Plainview, TX…Canyon, TX…
MARGINAL 173,869 18,399,608 Houston, TX…San Antonio, TX…Austin, TX…Portland, OR…Shreveport, LA…

Severe Weather Analysis

SUMMARY

A threat for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of Texas, the ArkLaTex region and in the Pacific Northwest during the afternoon and evening.

Analysis

For Northwest Texas, meteorological conditions remain in place for another round of late day supercells forming into a mesoscale convective system(MCS) slightly further north than Tuesday’s storms. Diurnal destabilization will occur along the edge of a moisture plume over the Planes from the Panhandle to Souther Plains of West Texas.  Convergence along the Dryline should increase during the late afternoon as vorticity moves through Kansas.  Isolated convection should form over the Panhandle and head southeast as it forms the MCS with the risk for hail and severe winds lasting into the overnight hours.

The risk in Eastern Texas into Louisiana and Arkansas is due to the current MCS which is slowly beginning to decay. Current strong to severe thunderstorms will weaken as the morning progresses but scattered convection will remain through the day along the outflow boundary.  Dewpoints in the upper 60s mean we have very moist air ahead of the boundary which could aid in development but the favorable mid-level flow remains over the Ozark Plateau.  While severe storms could develop, the set up appears marginal for wind and hail.

In the Pacific Northwest, a weakening shortwave trough will have a confined belt of southerly winds that overspreads the Cascades during the hours of peak heating. Despite weak buoyancy rates, steep lapse rates should support an isolated severe hail and wind risk.

This Week’s Flood Risk

Flood Risk

Yesterday’s Storm Reports

storm reports 2

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather

Flood Outlook and Forecast: Tuesday, April 19th

Flood risks remain for the Texas area which has been hard hit already.  Additional rain can be expected in this area over the next couple of days.

The current Surface Analysis

Surface map us

Today’s National Forecast

Weather Forecast map

A cutoff upper-level low with an associated quasi-stationary front from the Midwest to the southern plains will continue to generate numerous showers and thunderstorms over the next couple of days. Excessive rainfall has already caused significant flooding issues in Texas – the threat will slowly decrease through the day as the area of higher precipitation expands eastward into the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valleys. Flash flooding concerns will be elevated for east Texas to southern Illinois/Indiana. The model output for total rainfall through Wednesday night can be seen here.

total qpf

Additionally, the mountain snow in Colorado and Wyoming will taper off as the area as the position of the upper low and surface front shifts eastward. The system is forecast to begin a slow eastward movement by Wednesday afternoon and evening, when showers and thunderstorms will begin to spread into portions of the Ohio and Tennessee valleys.

Much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states will continue to have pleasantly warm and dry conditions through midweek. Afternoon high temperatures are forecast to be near or above average for mid-April. A vast portion of the West will also remain relatively dry with well-above normal temperatures. Many locations will have afternoon highs ranging 15 to 25 degrees above average through Wednesday.

Current Model Analysis

6 hour model

The chance for flooding continues to increase on top of the flooding already in place as the rain continues to fall along a slow moving boundary in the Plains. The Houston area has already seen an incredible amount of rainfall with this system and several local rivers are in major flood stage at this time.  While the rain does taper off slightly in this region, reducing itself to showers, another inch or two should be expected through Thursday.

In the Rockies, areas of heavy snow continue from Northern New Mexico up into Wyoming in the mountains, which can expect several more inches throughout the day before things begin to taper off. While the snow does continue its total coverage area continues to shrink.

For both coasts, another beautiful day can be expected with the exception of the Northeast, which will see some rain quickly move through.

18 hour model

By Tuesdayday afternoon, with the heaviest rain from Houston up to the Lake Charles Louisiana area on into Mississippi, and area of which can be seen bounded in the Excessive Rainfall outlook, below.

Excessive rainfall

The system that brought all the rain is breaking apart as seen on the model image and precipitation is scattered all across the Plains regions.

A backdoor cold front will hit the Northeast and start to drop the temperature as a low pressure system slides off the coastline.  Rain should still be falling in parts of Maine but it should end before the day is over.

36 hour model

By early Wednesday, the system in the Plains, now reforming in this model image, continues to bring heavy rain and severe weather to the Plains while the snow in the Rockies continues to wind down as high pressure develops.  This precipitation will only make the flood situation in Texas worse.  The Coastlines remain clear and dry under the influence of high pressure with only a break away batch of showers moving through the Northeast.

Current Severe Weather Outlook

Fire Weather Update

Fire Weather

Severe Outlook

Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 80,229 1,476,846 Lubbock, TX…Abilene, TX…Wichita Falls, TX…Midland, TX…Odessa, TX…

Severe Weather Analysis

SUMMARY

Isolated Severe storms will form across parts of West Texas in the late afternoon and evening. Hail and Wind should be the primary threats

Analysis

Surface dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s are prevalent across much of Central and Western Texas. While response should be weak ahead of the approaching mid-level impulse, boundary layer moisture will change little through this evening.  Instability in this region will be driven heavily by the amount of day time heating which currently differs greatly from model to model, so overall confidence in this forecast is lower than usual.

The reason for this is a large deck of stratus that remains from earlier rainfall which will help limit the amount of sun. Models have widely differing results for this cloud cover except for good agreement near the Dryline where substantial heating will occur.

Deep sheer is not going to be overly robust, but enhancement to the mid-level westerlies is expected as the impulse approaches the area and be strong enough for there to be a risk of multicell cluster splitting of supercells.

This Week’s Flood Risk

Flood risk

Yesterday’s Storm Reports

storm reports 2

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather

Forecast and Severe Outlook: Monday, April 18th

Forecast calls for additional heavy rain as several rivers begin to approach flood stage in Texas and Oklahoma.  Heavy snow will again fall in the Rockies with a few more inches expected while another nice day is in store for the east and west coasts.

The current Surface Analysis

Surface map us

Today’s National Forecast

Weather Forecast map

A nearly stationary front associated with a deep upper-level low will be draped from the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region southward through the central and southern plains. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico streaming in ahead of the front will fuel the atmosphere for widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms may turn severe therefore the Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk for portions of the southern Plains today. Heavy rainfall is expected with this weather pattern. Texas will be the most likely area for high rainfall rates over the next couple of days. Southeast Texas has a high risk for flash flooding today, with slight to moderate risk for much of central/eastern Texas and Oklahoma through Wednesday morning. Multi-day accumulations of 3 to 8 inches is forecast from the Ark-La-Tex border to the western Gulf Coast – the highest amounts will be in the vicinity of Galveston, Texas.

The showers and thunderstorms will spread into parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley into Tuesday, as well as, rain developing along and near the boundary over parts of the central and northern plains. Higher elevation snow and lower elevation rain will develop over parts of the Northern/Central Rockies through Tuesday with accumulations up to 1 foot at the highest elevations of Colorado and Wyoming.

A cold front will slowly sink through the Northeast and into the Mid-Atlantic region by midweek. Rain will develop along the boundary over the Upper Mississippi Valley and expand into the Upper Great Lakes today. The rain will move into parts of Northern New England moving into parts of the Northern Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday.  A few embedded thunderstorms may develop over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley and parts of the Middle Missouri Valley this afternoon and evening.

Current Model Analysis

6 hour model

The chance for flooding continues to increase on top of the flooding already in place as the rain continues to fall along a slow moving boundary. Heavy rain continues to pour down from Southern Texas up into the Dakotas though most of the flooding rains are confined to areas near and South of the Red River.  Rivers in these locations are already entering their action stages and several are expected to reach their flood stages over the next few days.

In the Rockies, areas of heavy snow continue from Northern New Mexico up into Wyoming in the mountains, which can expect several more inches throughout the day.

For both coasts, another beautiful day can be expected.

18 hour model

By Monday afternoon, rain continues to fall in the Plains and the snow begins to slowly taper off location by location as the boundary pushes east towards the Mississippi River Valley. Dry conditions continue along both coastlines as high pressure dominates.  Here is a look at the excessive rainfall expectation for through this afternoon.

36 hour model

By early Tuesday, the system in the Plains continues to bring heavy rain and severe weather to the Plains while the snow in the Rockies begins to wind down as high pressure develops.  The Coastlines remain clear and dry under the influence of high pressure with only a break away batch of showers moving through the Northeast.

Current Severe Weather Outlook

Fire Weather Update

Fire Weather

No elevated fire risk areas are forecast.

***Severe Weather Analysis***

…SUMMARY…

Isolated Strong to Severe Thunderstorms will form across South and Southeast Texas through the mid evening.

Severe Forecast

Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 34,586 2,257,881 Corpus Christi, TX…Laredo, TX…Brownsville, TX…Harlingen, TX…Victoria, TX…
MARGINAL 44,274 9,995,879 Houston, TX…San Antonio, TX…Austin, TX…Pasadena, TX…Beaumont, TX…

***Analysis***

Multiple areas of thunderstorms are ongoing at this hour across Southeast Texas and the Upper Coast area where heavy rainfall is being produced by a mesoscale convective system. This system is forecast to move east into parts of Western Louisiana later today into overnight.  While forcing in general is weak in this location, the cold pool from this convective system could help to produce a few wet downbursts and some strong winds

Across the Deep South of Texas, Dewpoints are rising into the 60s and 70s and daytime heating between the cloud breaks will allow for redevelopment of storms along and ahead of the front near the remnant outflows. Low level winds should be sufficient for organized multicell clusters and a few supercells that may produce large hail.  It is possible that storms merge and move forward in a southeastward direction and bring the hail and wind risk towards the Lower Texas Coast this evening.

This Week’s Flood Risk

Flood Risk

Yesterday’s Storm Reports

storm reports 2

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather

Forecast and Severe Outlook for Sunday, April 17th

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch continues in Texas from Abilene down to Junction.  Severe weather will continue to be a problem across Eastern Texas today with hail and a few tornadoes as the primary threats.  In the Rockies, heavy snow will fall with Winter Storm Warnings posted for much of Colorado and Southeastern Wyoming.

The current Surface Analysis

Surface map us

Today’s National Forecast

Weather Forecast map

A deep upper-level low pressure system will remain stalled over the central Plains through midweek. Scattered showers are forecast from the Upper Midwest to the Northeast as a cold front sags southward out of Canada. Widespread precipitation will develop along and ahead of the nearly stationary boundary as Gulf moisture streams northward. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today and again on Monday across portions of Texas. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a portion of the southern plains with a slight risk for both days. Heavy rain will be likely, therefore the risk for flash and river flooding will be elevated. Excessive rainfall outlooks have issued for portions of the southern and central plains east of the Front Range.

In addition, snow will develop over parts of the Central Rockies and parts of the Northern/Central High Plains through Monday. At times higher elevation snow and lower elevation rain will develop over parts of the Southern Rockies through Monday. Mountain snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated higher amounts are forecast through midweek. Lower elevations will generally have amounts less than 6 inches.

Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of Florida through tonight along a dissipating front over Southern Florida.

Current Model Analysis

6 hour model

A very slow moving system over the Great Plains is bringing plenty of strong thunderstorms and flooding rain to the area over the next couple of days. Severe Thunderstorm Watches remain in effect from last night for parts of Texas

. watches

Very heavy rains are falling as part of this system and Flash Flood thresholds are at risk of being met from Nebraska down through Texas with longer term river flooding becoming more of a risk from Kansas down through Texas. Flood risks will increase as time goes on in this region.

In Colorado and Wyoming, heavy snow continues to fall. Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for most of Colorado including the Denver area as well as parts of Southwestern Wyoming.  More than a half a foot of snow is expected throughout much of the region with some areas expected to see more than a foot.

The East Coast remains dry with very dry air in the Northeast and the Pacific coast also remains dry with warm conditions.18 hour model

By Sunday afternoon, rain continues to fall in the Plains and the snow begins to shift more towards Wyoming though areas of heavy snow will remain in Colorado.  Dry conditions continue along both coastlines as high pressure dominates.  Here is a look at the excessive rainfall expectation for through this afternoon.

Excessive rainfall

36 hour model

By early Monday, the system in the Plains continues to bring heavy rain and severe weather to the Plains while the snow in the Rockies begins to wind down.  The Coastlines remain clear and dry under the influence of high pressure.

Current Severe Weather Outlook

Fire Weather Update

Fire Weather

Sustained Southwesterly winds of 20-30 MPH along with minimum Relative humidity percentages between 10 and 15% are anticipated to bring Critical Meteorological Fire Conditions into Southeastern New Mexico and portions of Extreme Western Texas and the Texas Panhandle. The Panhandle region will likely remain beneath critical risk for fire due to fuels across the region being wet from recent rainfall over the last 24 hours.

Severe Outlook

Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 77,396 11,398,359 Houston, TX…San Antonio, TX…Austin, TX…Corpus Christi, TX…Pasadena, TX…
MARGINAL 60,623 9,181,026 Dallas, TX…Fort Worth, TX…Arlington, TX…Plano, TX…Garland, TX…

***Severe Weather Analysis***

…SUMMARY…

Isolated to Widely Scattered Severe Thunderstorms are expected across portions of Texas and Oklahoma today and tonight.

***Analysis***

Slow eastward moving convection is ongoing this morning from South Central Oklahoma to North Central Texas and the Central Texas Hill Country. These storms are expected to re-intensify this afternoon as moist low level flow aids in overcoming a weak cap over the area, especially across South Central and East Central Texas.

Middle to upper 60s for Dewpoints should be in place across much of the area and will contribute to moderate convective available potential energy (CAPE).  Hail will be the primary concern early in the day but a few tornadoes and severe wind will become more prevalent as multiple convective cluster begin to redevelop later in the day.

This Week’s Flood Risk

Flood Risk

Yesterday’s Storm Reports

Storm Reports

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather