Tropical Update: Hurricane Newton and Hermine

Tropical Weather is still the major driving topic of conversation despite some snow in the Mountain west, as the Desert Southwest braces for the very rare Tropical Storm.  Hurricane Newton is bearing down on Mainland Mexico after crossing Baja California Sur.  Hermine continues to be a problem for the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic and much further east in the Atlantic, a new Tropical wave has moved off the African coast and bears watching for development of the 10th Tropical Depression of the Season, which seems possible by the weekend.

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Hurricane Newton

Hurricane Newton has gone from the Pacific into the Gulf of California and is moving Northward at about 15 mph.  Hurricane Warnings are up in Mexico from Guymas to Puerto Libertad.  Newton will move through this area and continue north into Arizona.  Tropical Storm conditions are possible in both Arizona and New Mexico as Newton moves north.  Newton is a large cyclone with Tropical Storm force winds extend 230 miles from the center of circulation, and these conditions will affect portions of northwestern Mexico and southeastern Arizona during the next day or so.  While much of the rain will fall in Mexico, 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts is possible in both Arizona and New Mexico as Newton continues inland.  This could create localized flash flood conditions and create very dangerous conditions for mudslides in the mountains.  Newton won’t survive for too long in the dry arid conditions currently seen in the Southeast, and is expected to have dissipated in 36 to 48 hours.

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Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine

Hermine, a quickly decaying Post Tropical Cyclone, has once again begun to turn back towards Long Island and is expected to pass the Eastern Tip of the Island later on today.  All Tropical Storm Warnings associated with Hermine have been cancelled as most of the Tropical Storm conditions are now to the South and East of the center of circulation, but Hermine will still bring some gusty winds and rain showers to Southeastern New England and Long Island Wednesday and Thursday as the center passes near Nantucket.  There will be some sunshine mixed into the area, like there was today, as Hermine has ingested large amounts of dry air which is helping to break up the cloud cover some, but as occurred today at my house, the sun can be out one minute and then rain and winds can be there within a matter of minutes.  The NHC is no longer posting information about Hermine on their site, but we at Firsthand Weather will continue to follow the system until she poses no further risk to land.

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Tropical Atlantic Update

A tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean just west of the coast of Africa is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms.  A low pressure area is expected to form in
association with the wave several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands in a couple of days.  Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression could form by the weekend while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward toward the central Atlantic.

 

Robert Millette

Hermine turns toward New England

Hermine remains a post-tropical cyclone with a cloud pattern more reminiscent of an extratropical low, but as the storm intensifies, moderate convection has been developing just north of the surface center in the northern semicircle during the past few hours within a region of increasing upper-level diffluence.  This diffluence is expected to increase as the wind shear weakens and if the convection continues to develop, Hermine may gain tropical or sub-tropical characteristics before the anticipated weakening begins to occur on Tuesday over cooler water.  Data from an earlier reconnaissance mission along with recent scatterometer data suggest that the intensity remains unchanged at 70 MPH with a minimum central pressure of 997 millibars.  Hermine is also beginning to be picked up by the radar in Taunton and Upton.   Rain bands have already begun to move over the Islands and Cape and those will move further inland with time.  Some places will see an inch or 2 of run from gusty tropical downpours from early this morning through the overnight hours.

storm surge 1

Hermine’s Location

The initial motion is a slow northward drift at about 3 MPH.  Hermine is about 300 Miles from the Eastern tip of Long Island and about 260 miles South of Nantucket.  A gradual turn toward the north-northwest and northwest is expected to occur this afternoon and tonight.

Hermine

 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

The coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor and from New Haven to Sagamore Beach, including Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over portions of the warning area by this afternoon.  Large waves, strong rip currents, and a small storm surge is expected as Hermine makes its closest pass to the coast.  Low lying coastal areas that are usually dry may flood but major coastal flooding is not expected.  Significant beach erosion is expected.

 

Robert Millette

Hermine maintains strength over Gulf Stream

Hermine is now a Post Tropical Cyclone,  and is now about 300 miles East of Ocean City, Maryland.  Hermine has slowed down dramatically from yesterday.  Hermine is beginning to make her Northward turn as she re-intensifies and approaches Hurricane Strength and is forecast to have sustained winds over Hurricane strength in the next 24 hours while out over the Gulf Stream.  Areas in the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England should expect a long duration event with wind and rain coming in pulses over the next several days.  Heavy surf, dangerous rip currents, beach erosion, and Tropical Storm to Hurricane force wind gusts should be expected along with Coastal Flooding and Heavy Tropical Downpours.  Given the stress many trees are under due to the ongoing drought, they may be more vulnerable than they would typically be given these wind conditions.  Scattered Tree and power line damage is expected in both regions.

tropical storm wind

Hermine has changed little in structure since the last advisory, with most of the deep convection situated well northeast of the center and dry, subsiding air wrapping around the southern semicircle.  Earlier data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft showed that the central pressure had risen to 998 mb, and that 65-70 mph surface winds were present about 70 n mi northwest of the center.  Based on this, the initial intensity remains near 65 MPH.  Little change in strength is likely tonight, but the interaction with the upper-level trough is expected to provide more favorable conditions for strengthening while the system is over well above average sea surface temperatures of 28C or warmer starting Sunday, and the dynamical models all show some deepening during this period.  Based on this, the intensity forecast calls for Hermine to become a hurricane-force low and she could reform into a Sub Tropical Storm by Monday.  .

water temps

HERMINE WATCHES AND WARNINGS

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, Chesapeake Bay and South of Duck, North Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to west of Watch Hill Rhode Island, including Delaware Bay.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Watch Hill Rhode Island to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts including Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket

Hermine

Storm Surge:

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  Along the immediate coastline, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.  There is a danger of life-threatening inundation through tonight in the Hampton Roads area, and in the next 36 hours from Chincoteague, Virginia, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey.  Port Condition Whiskey has been issued for Southern New England by the Captain of the Port, indicating Gale force wind expectations and the potential for Port Closures in the coming days.  Storm Surge heights are expected to be at..

North Carolina sounds…1 to 3 feet
Hampton Roads area…2 to 4 feet
Chincoteague, VA to Sandy Hook, NJ…3 to 5 feet
Sandy Hook, NJ to Bridgeport, CT…2 to 4 feet

 

 

storm surge 1

Hurricane Hunter aircraft are currently in Hermine and will be bringing the latest data, which we will have here, as soon as it’s available to us.

 

 

hurricane hunter

 

Robert Millette

Strong Earthquake Felt Across Oklahoma and Surrounding States

Update (2): These are the “felt reports.” As shown, this earthquake was felt over a widespread area. This earthquake was given a preliminary rating of 5.6, which ties it with the strongest Oklahoma earthquake in recorded history.

Earthquake reports

Update: USGS has given the earthquake, centered in northern Oklahoma, a preliminary magnitude rating of 5.6. This information will be subject to change.

5.6 earthquake preliminary rating

An earthquake was just felt across Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri, Arkansas, and even Iowa. As we continue to get more information, we will update this blog.

Details on location:

Magnitude 5.8 strikes 123 km NE of Oklahoma City.

5.8 magnitude earthquake

This is an intensity map indicating where the epicenter was located and the strongest shaking was felt.

earthquake intensity map

Hermine continues to slam the East Coast

Hermine, still a tropical storm, is moving toward the northeast near 22 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed through Saturday night. A gradual turn toward the north is expected on Sunday.  On the forecast track, the center of Hermine will continue to move across eastern North Carolina during the next several hours and emerge over the Atlantic later today.  Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph with higher gusts.  Strengthening is forecast after the center moves over water, and Hermine could be near hurricane intensity by Sunday.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles mainly to the south and east of the center.   The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb.Hermine

 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR TROPICAL STORM HERMINE:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

Surf City, North Carolina to Sandy Hook, New Jersey, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward, the Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island eastward and  Delaware Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

North of Sandy Hook, New Jersey to west of Watch Hill, Rhode Island, including Long Island.

 

Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward within the warning area along the Atlantic coast through Sunday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area by
late Sunday or Sunday night.   The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 24 hours in the Hampton Roads area as a storm surge of 3-5 feet comes ashore.  Persons within this area should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water.  There is also the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours at most coastal locations between the North Carolina/Virginia border and Bridgeport, Connecticut as storm tides of 2-4 feet come ashore.  These tides will combine with expected rainfall accumulations of 4-7 inches from Southeastern Virginia and Atlantic Coastal Maryland and may contribute to additional flooding.

Storm surge Hampton Roads storm surge New york Philly New England

Hermine is beginning to undergo an extra tropical transition, but once back over open waters, may redevelop her tropical characteristics and should approach Hurricane Strength off the Delmarva while south of New England.   Areas north of Virginia under a Tropical Storm Warning or Watch should prepare for conditions to worsen throughout the weekend, as should coastal areas of Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

Hermine Expected To Bring Strong Winds and Rain To Mid-Atlantic and Northeast

We’ve been talking about for days now in our discussions how there was a very good possibility that Hermine was going to slow down significantly or even stall as it moved off the East Coast and towards the Mid-Atlantic region. A trough, located over the Northeast states, is quickly moving out and will be replaced by a building ridge from the west. This ridging already extends up through the Great Lakes into central Canada, which will build eastward with time into the Northeast and eastern Canada, and in fact, ridging will encompass basically the eastern half of the nation by early next week.

This becomes problematic with the current situation at hand with Hermine, as she moves up the coast. Currently her forward speed is 20 mph northeast, which indicates that the trough is having an influence on the steering of the system. However, like we discussed the other night, the trough is going to likely pull out too quickly, and since it did not dig far enough southward, Hermine is going to get stuck off the Mid-Atlantic coast.

Hermine has weakened quite a bit over land, but she will be moving back over open waters shortly. Sea surface temperatures along the East Coast are well above average and fully capable of supporting a tropical system off the Mid-Atlantic coast. It is very possible that Hermine could regain hurricane status off the Mid-Atlantic coast, if it remains purely tropical in nature.

Latest projected path of Hermine:

Hermine Projected Path

Regions along the Mid-Atlantic coast need to prepare for a high-impact event with strong winds, flooding, beach erosion, and high surf starting this weekend that will potentially extend into next week. Tropical Storm warnings now include all of the Virginia coast, the Delmarva coastal regions, and the New Jersey coast. Tropical storm watches extend up through the Connecticut coast, which includes New York City.

Weekend Projection Of Hermine Off Mid-Atlantic Coast (these are winds right above the surface):

European model Prediction of H

As we have mentioned, it is possible that this system could make a northwest jog towards the coast, even if the center of circulation never makes it onshore. Also keep in mind that this system will likely eventually make an extra-tropical transition or it may make the transition and then go back to a fully tropical state if it stays over sufficiently warm waters for an extended period of time. If this transition occurs, the wind field could become farther spread out from the center and impact regions even farther inland.

Heavy amounts of rain will fall along coastal regions, with the gradient being pretty tight. Even small variations in track could be the difference between coastal areas getting a few inches of rain versus well over a foot. Please keep that in mind.

Projected 3-Day Rainfall Totals:

Projected Hermine Rainfall Totals

We will continue to monitor this situation very closely. Please start making preparations now if you haven’t done so already.

Hurricane Hermine to hit Florida, East Coast

Hurricane Hermine has continued to strengthen this afternoon and evening with winds increasing to 80 MPH.  Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles.  NOAA buoy 42036 recently reported sustained winds of 58 mph and a wind gust of 78 mph, well away from the center of circulation.  Flooding rains and severe coastal flooding should be expected with Hermine.
Hurricane Hermine

Hurricane Warning/Watch, Tropical Storm Warning/Watch

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from the Suwannee River to Mexico Beach in Florida.  Due to the increasing strength of Hermine, Hurricane Watches remain in effect from the Suwannee River South to the Anclote River and from Mexico Beach west to the Walton/Bay County line.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect from the Suwannee River south to Englewood, and for the aforementioned area from Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County line.

On the Atlantic coast, A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the Flagler/Volusia County line in Florida, to Duck in North Carolina, including Pamlico and Albermarle Sounds.

Tropical Storm Watches extend from North of Duck to Sandy Hook New Jersey, including Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point South, and Delaware Bay.

Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the warning area beginning tonight.  Winds are already near tropical storm strength in portions of the warning area, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the warning area along the Atlantic coast on Friday, and spread northward through the weekend.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  There is a danger of life-threatening inundation within the next 12 to 24 hours along the Gulf coast of Florida from  Indian Pass to Longboat Key.    Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water.  Promptly follow any instructions, including evacuation orders, from local officials.

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Destin to Indian Pass…1 to 3 feet
Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River…4 to 7 feet
Ochlockonee River to Yankeetown…6 to 9 feet
Yankeetown to Aripeka…4 to 7 feet
Aripeka to Longboat Key…including Tampa Bay…2 to 4 feet
Longboat Key to Bonita Beach…1 to 3 feet
Florida-Georgia line to Tidewater of Virginia…1 to 3 feet
storm surge
Storm Surge projections

Hermine is expected to produce storm total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches over portions of northwest Florida and southern Georgia through Friday, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches.  On Friday and Saturday, Hermine is expected to produce totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible across portions of eastern Georgia, South Carolina, and eastern North Carolina through Saturday.  These rains may cause life-threatening floods and flash floods.

Tornado Watches have been posted across the region as severe weather is expected to be a threat.

Hermine Tornado

 

 

Robert Millette

Hermine Expected To Be A Hurricane By Landfall Tonight

Since Firsthand Weather posted an extensive update last night on Tropical Storm Hermine, we’ll keep this post relatively short, and just hit the high points.

Tropical Hermine has maximum sustained winds of 65 mph as of 11 pm ET, which is considered to be a strong tropical storm. This makes it about 9 mph short of being a hurricane, but with additional organization/strengthening expected, it should reach category 1 hurricane status or be very close by tonight.

Deep convection (storms) are now starting to wrap around most of the center of circulation, even extending along the northwest periphery of the center. This system is still a bit lop-side with most of the convection on the east and northeast sides of Hermine but still continues to look better organized.

The HRRR model, which is a short-range model, predicts that Hermine will have a surface pressure of 983 millibars by late tonight as she makes landfall. This would put Hermine within category 1 hurricane range.

HRRR model Hermine

Landfall is expected to generally be near Apalachicola, FL tonight. These are the latest spaghetti plots with a fairly strong consensus on track over the next 48 hours.

Spaghetti Models of Hermine

Excessive rainfall amounts will fall from parts of the panhandle of Florida and in general over the northern half of the state. Southern/south-central/southeastern parts of Georgia, the midlands and coastal regions of South Carolina, the eastern third of North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia should expect rainfall amounts on the order of 8 to 10 + inches with some locations easily getting over a foot of rain. Outer bands will reach areas outside of this zone also, dumping heavy rain farther northwest of the zone mentioned, although totals shouldn’t be quite as high. Keep in mind that a frontal boundary is pushing southward across the Gulf Coast states, which could enhance rainfall amounts.

Hurricane force winds can be expected across parts of the Florida panhandle and possibly into southern Georgia tonight into the early morning hours. Due to a favorable upper-level environment, Hermine may not weaken as quickly over land as it otherwise would, so expect tropical storm force winds to be felt across southern/southeastern/south-central Georgia, coastal South Carolina and just inland and even into parts of the coastal North Carolina region by late Friday/early Saturday. This is why tropical storm warnings have been issued for the northeast Florida coast, the entire Georgia coast, the entire South Carolina coast and along southern regions of the North Carolina coast.

Please refer to my article from last night to read my discussion on what Hermine could do after it comes northeast. A blocking ridge is going to develop and could dramatically slow down this system. Areas in the Mid-Atlantic (especially on the coast) need to watch this system closely, in case it does hug the coast. You can read last night’s discussion by clicking here. We will continue to post updates throughout the day across our social media pages and on the site. Please continue to make preparations for Hermine.