Matthew downgraded to Post Tropical Storm

Satellite and radar imagery show that Matthew has continued to degrade and is now a Post Tropical Storm.  Matthew’s center is now exposed to the wind shear that has begun affecting him with no deep convection near the center.  Despite this, strong winds continue across Eastern North Carolina this morning with winds just southwest of the center still sustained at hurricane force.

A motion toward the east-northeast or east is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will move farther offshore of the coast of the North Carolina Outer Banks today and tonight.  Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph with higher gusts. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles, mainly to the southwest of the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles. A sustained wind of 61 mph and a gust to 79 mph were recently measured by a National Ocean Service instrument at Duck, North Carolina. A wind gust to 90 mph (127 km/h) was measured at an elevated private weather station near Nags Head, North Carolina and a wind gust to 70 mph (113 km/h) has been observed at Dare County Airport near Manteo, North Carolina. . The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).

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Hurricane Hunters

An air force reserve reconnaissance mission completed this morning continues to indicate hurricane force winds were occurring, but not over land.

Surface observations indicate that the cold front should overtake Matthew shortly and push Matthew east with no loop occurring towards Florida.  Matthew should undergo his extra tropical transition when this occurs before he dissipates.

 

Watches and Warnings:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for North of Surf City to Duck North Carolina including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

Flood Warnings and High Wind Advisories are in effect for most of North Carolina and Southeast Virginia.

 

As Matthew’s structure changes, the system’s strongest winds continue to shift to the west side of the circulation. The winds are expected to increase significantly over the coastal areas of eastern North Carolina during the next several hours, and during the next 6 to 12 hours there is the possibility of near-hurricane force winds over the North Carolina Outer Banks, as well as the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. There is also an increased threat of storm surge in these areas.

Matthew Hazards:

 

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the warning area through early this afternoon, and then gradually diminish by this evening. Hurricane-force wind gusts should continue through this morning over the North Carolina Outer Banks.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide, and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide Surf City to Duck, North Carolina, including portions of the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds could see surge tides of 3 to 5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the coast from Surf City to Duck, North Carolina, including portions of the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across southeast Virginia and extreme eastern North Carolina through this morning. Storm total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated amounts up to 20 inches, continues to result in life-threatening flooding and flash flooding across the region.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect much of the southeastern and Mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States during the next couple of days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

 

Robert Millette

Hurricane Matthew Real-Time Updates

This page is meant to give you updates on Hurricane Matthew in real-time. While our forecasts may disagree with those with Hurricane Matthew at times, this is a source that will update on its own. We will be adding additional content to this page as this event unfolds.

See What Others Are Saying About Hurricane Matthew:


The Latest Hurricane Matthew Projected Path From The National Hurricane Center:

Hurricane Matthew Track

The Latest Hurricane Matthew Projected Path (Source: Weather Underground):

Hurricane Matthew Track

Latest Radar:

Hurricane Matthew Track

Latest Model Tracks For Hurricane Matthew:

Hurricane Matthew Model Tracks

Probability Of Hurricane-Force Winds At The Surface (1 Minute Average Equal To Or Greater Than 74 mph:

Hurricane Matthew Winds

The Surface Wind Field Of Hurricane Matthew Along With The Latest Watches And Warnings:

Hurricane Matthew Surface Wind Field

Rainfall Projections For The Next 72 Hours:

Hurricane Matthew Rainfall Forecast

Water Vapor Loop Of Hurricane Matthew:

Water Vapor Loop Of Hurricane Matthew

Rainbow Infrared Loop Of Hurricane Matthew:

Rainbow Infrared Loop Of Hurricane Matthew

Hurricane Matthew and Everything You Need To Know

Hurricane Matthew continues to be just a phenomenal storm from a meteorological perspective; however, as many well know, tropical systems such as Matthew can have a huge impact on the lives’ of many people. In this article, I mainly want to address two main topics: where will Matthew track and what will the impacts be to the United States.

In order to do that, I want to set this up by taking a look at the overall pattern that is going to ultimately steer Matthew, and this will lead into the forecast, where I’ll discuss potential impacts. This is something that I discussed over a week ago on Facebook, and given the synoptic pattern, it was discussed why it was not wise to rely on forecast models. That has shown to be true since models have now trended westward with Matthew’s track with time.

The Bermuda Ridge Telling Matthew Where’s He’s Going To Go:

Many located across the Southeast and those located even along and extending westward from the East Coast in general have become very familiar with the Bermuda ridge this summer, which has been very much responsible for the awful heat and humid conditions that many have had to deal with. Instead of looking at every single model run of every single model, your best bet in nailing down the the track of Matthew is accurately predicting the placement, westward extent and strength of the Bermuda ridge. A stronger Bermuda ridge will lead to a more westward track. There is clockwise flow around a ridge feature such as this in the Northern Hemisphere, and since Matthew is on the westward side of that, the flow around that ridge will continue to pull him northward and even northwestward as he increases in latitude.

I want to give you a bit of a visual of this to go along with what was just explained. The image below shows the 48 hour trends in heights at the 500 mb on the GFS model. Now notice all of that red shading right along the East Coast, above and around where Matthew is located off the South Carolina coast. Simply put, this indicates that the GFS model has trended stronger with the Bermuda ridge, and the green circle around it indicates that this is statistically significant. Again, the strength and placement of this ridge will be one of main drivers that determines how this system will track, especially as Matthew moves along the Southeast coast. Nailing down how this ridge evolves with time is pivotal to this forecast! It’s important to note that models, including the European model, have made this westward trend also. If you’re like me and always skeptical of the forecast models, the expanding Bermuda ridge is not that surprising, given that this feature was strongly present this summer and Matthew slowed down enough to give the ridge enough time to build westward after the cut-off low moved out of the eastern U.S.

GFS trend map

Due to the westward trend, the National Hurricane Center has issued hurricane watches for parts of Florida, and I expect those watches to eventually be extended to the Carolina coast. The Georgia coast is always a tricky spot to nail down, but watches will probably be issued for those locations, too. Keep in mind that I DO NOT expect Matthew to go into the Gulf of Mexico. This is a threat for the East Coast, particularly the Southeast coast in the near-term (late week to this weekend).

Hurricane Matthew projected path

It Get’s More Complicated Once Matthew Moves Northward Thanks To A Gulf Of Alaska Trough Moving East:

In addition to the Bermuda ridge, a ridge extends up over New England into eastern Canada. This will likely keep Matthew slow-moving through the early weekend, but then things get interesting and even a bit more uncertain. A trough moving from the Gulf of Alaska will come eastward with time, but how quickly it moves east and how deep this trough digs will be a pivotal factor in determining where Matthew tracks beyond the Carolina coast. The latest European model has the ridge over the Northeast breaking down some, but it has the trough much weaker and having less of an influence on the system. The GFS model keeps the trough stronger farther east and has a bit more of an influence. This will be a big factor later in the weekend into early next week as to how Matthew impacts the Northeast, and by the way, I don’t buy the latest European’s solution of having Matthew looping along the Southeast. He eventually will make an extra-tropical transition as he interacts with a frontal system. Luckily, it is Tuesday, and we still time to nail down that part of the forecast, so I’ll have a separate update coming out on that!

Impacts, Sea Surface Temperatures, and More:

Florida will begin to feel the impacts of Matthew on Thursday, which will extend through most of Friday. Impacts will be felt along the Georgia and Carolina coasts this weekend. Prior to this, coastal and even inland locations will start to notice an increase in winds and rainy conditions.

This threat is two-fold. First, residents from the east coast of Florida (probably north of Miami) up through the Carolinas should prepare for hurricane-force winds. Keep in mind that this system is not coming in perpendicular to the coast but will be riding parallel to the coast. Instead of trying to pinpoint one location on the coast that could experience the highest winds, Matthew could produce a swath of hurricane force winds along an extended stretch of the coast. Hurricane track is EVERYTHING. If it moves a bit more eastward, the impacts won’t be as bad, but if it comes in as projected on a farther westward track, this is the worst case scenario. As I explained above, there is reason to believe, aside from the model guidance issues, that the Bermuda ridge will build westward. Prepare for this scenario, and don’t take this threat lightly. We will eventually be posting impact maps for all of this.

The second big threat will be flooding, and one that must not be overlooked. East coastal regions from Florida to Virginia could easily receive 6 to 10 inches of rain with many locations possibly going over a foot of rain. Inland locations away from the coast could also receive very high rainfall amounts. Beyond Virginia, the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will have to watch for this threat closely, too. However, how much rain those regions receive is dependent on what Matthew does after impacting the Carolinas, which as explained above is one aspect of the forecast that I’m more uncertain about currently. Luckily, there is enough time to get that nailed down!

The below image shows that sea surface temperatures are above normal across all regions that Matthew will be moving across in the coming days. High pressure aloft will continue to help ventilating Matthew, and if Matthew happens to weaken at all between now and its passing near the Bahamas, rapid re-strengthening may occur. As a jet streak moves eastward with the trough, this actually could enhance ventilation as he moves up the coast.

SST anomalies in western Atlantic

On a final note, I realize that many of these hurricane forecasts have not verified over the years, but that doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t be prepared. As I mentioned, this is not a situation where a hurricane is approaching perpendicular to the coast and we’re trying to find the exact point it’ll hit. When hurricanes come parallel to the coast such as Matthew will, slight deviations in track changes the entire forecast in a major way. Realize that early on, and keep in mind that while technology has helped improved the quality of these forecasts over the years, hurricane forecasts where such small details can be the deal-breaker need to not be taken lightly. That’s my long way of saying, be prepared and hope this forecast doesn’t verify.

Firsthand Weather will continue to keep you updated throughout this event. There was much more that I could have covered, but we want to be careful about throwing too much information at you at once. Hopefully this article clears up any questions that you may have, and we will continue to monitor the situation at hand!

Major Hurricane Matthew Update

Major Hurricane Matthew has maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph with higher gusts approaching 170 mph, making Matthew is a category 4 hurricane. Many will have to seriously consider support from people similar to Murfreesboro TN Roofing Pros to repair their homes after such a powerful hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches).

 

Major Hurricane Matthew Forecast

Matthew

The satellite presentation of Matthew remains very impressive this morning. The eye was obscured during part of the night, but has become more distinct and slightly larger during the past couple of
hours.

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The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a peak 700-millibar flight level wind of 163 mph, and surface winds of 145 mph in the northeast quadrant. During the final passage through the eye a little before 1 AM, the aircraft reported a minimum pressure of 934 millibar. The next reconnaissance aircraft mission is scheduled to be in Matthew before 8 AM this morning.

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Hurricane conditions are beginning to reach the southwestern portion of Haiti and will spread northward today as the center of Matthew will passes near and over southwestern Haiti. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach eastern Cuba later today. After moving north of Cuba, Matthew is expected to turn north-northwestward. Matthew will then bring hurricane conditions to the southeastern Bahamas Tuesday evening, the central Bahamas on Wednesday, and the northwestern Bahamas Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of Jamaica and along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the warning area today, and will spread northward into the Turks and Caicos Islands tonight.

 

Watches and Warnings

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Haiti, the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas, The Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island, The Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San Salvador, and Cat Island and the Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cuban province of Camaguey

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti, Jamaica, and the Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with Haiti

Model analysis

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Matthew. Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches are likely for portions of the
Florida peninsula and Florida Keys later this morning.

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Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could also affect portions of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore.

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It is too soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on the remainder of the U.S. east coast farther north. At a minimum, very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend. A State of Emergency has already been declared in Florida and North Carolina.

 

 

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in the following areas:

Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic: 15 to 25 inches, isolated 40 inches
Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti: 8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches
Eastern Jamaica: 4 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches
The Bahamas: 8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands: 2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Northeastern Haiti and the Northern Dominican Republic: 1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches
Western Jamaica: 1 to 2 inches, isolated 3 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely from this rainfall in Haiti, the southwestern Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the following amounts above normal tide levels.

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz: 7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti: 7 to 10 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey: 4 to 6 feet
Jamaica: 2 to 4 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti: 3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of the Dominican Republic: 1 to 3 feet
The Bahamas: 10 to 15 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the coasts of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few
days. Swells from Matthew will begin affecting portions of the Bahamas on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions.

 

Robert Millette

 

 

Major Hurricane Matthew

Major Hurricane Matthew remains a Category 4 storm.  Matthew is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the
north tonight.  On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will approach southwestern Haiti and Jamaica on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph with higher gusts.  Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through Monday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205miles.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 millibars or 27.96 inches.

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Major Hurricane Matthew

The overall organization of the hurricane has changed little overnight, with the small eye remaining distinct in infrared satellite pictures, though a dry slot has been noted between the eye wall and the outer bands in the South portion of the storm.

Hurricane Matthew

Model Analysis

Matthew has been moving slowly west-northwestward during the past few hours.  Matthew should move slowly northwestward today, and then turn northward tonight as a mid- to upper-level trough develops over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  This motion will take Matthew towards Jamaica, western Haiti, and eastern Cuba over the next couple of days.  After that time, the global models bend Matthew back toward the north-northwest between the aforementioned trough and a developing ridge off the northeast United States coast.

The dynamical models are in good agreement on this scenario through 72 hours, with increasing spread thereafter.  The GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET are along the western side of the guidance at days 4 and 5, while the HWRF is along the eastern side.  The latest NHC track is close to the model consensus through day 3, but is west of the consensus at 96 and 120 h, to be closer to the typically better performing global models.

Matthew is likely to interact with the land masses of Jamaica, Cuba, and Hispaniola, leading to some weakening and disruption of the storm structure.  After this time, The upper-level wind environment is expected to remain favorable over the Bahamas, and warm waters in that area should allow Matthew to maintain much of its intensity and strengthen while it moves over that area later in the forecast period.

Watches and Warnings

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica,  Haiti, and the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cuban province of Camaguey, the Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, and Long Cay, and the Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with Haiti

Hurricane Hunters

The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Major Hurricane Matthew this morning, with the data found below.   Although some weakening is predicted during the next couple of days, Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane when it approaches the islands of the Greater Antilles in a couple of days.

 

Robert Millette