Get the pumpkin spice coffee creamer from the store and dust off the light jackets. The first taste of fall arrives for many North Carolina, Upstate South Carolina, Tennessee, northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, and northern Georgia Thursday night and Friday morning.
Once Ida departs, a drier and cooler air mass will filter into the region. This will allow for a few days of pleasant conditions. The coolest temperatures arrive Thursday night and Friday morning when conditions will be perfect for optimized cooling. Lows will fall into the 50s and low-60s for many with parts of Tennessee and western North Carolina falling into the 40s–some mid-40s cannot be ruled out. Upper-50s will sneak as far south as far northern Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi.
As Ida tracks northeast, it will pull tropical moisture into the eastern parts of the country. The tropical moisture and associated lift with the remnants of Ida, paired with a cold front and terrain induced precipitation will lead to a significant flood threat from northern Alabama, northern Georgia, Tennessee, Kentucky, southern Ohio, western North Carolina, West Virginia, Virginia, Pennsylvania, the Hudson Valley and NYC, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts.
This is where a widespread 2 to 6 inches of rain will fall with areas receiving up to 10 inches of rain.
There is a tornado risk today and Wednesday as the remnants of Ida track northeast. Today’s tornado risk exists from northern Florida into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Wednesday’s tornado risk is across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic.
We are not finished with the impacts from Ida. Ida will continue to be felt over the coming days as it moves north, followed by a northeast movement. The current forecast calls for Ida to remain a tropical depression as it moves from the South into the Tennessee Valley and Mid-Atlantic from early to mid-week.
The wind threat will decrease as Ida moves inland but the flood threat will increase. A swath of heavy rainfall is expected from the South into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys from early to mid-week, followed by heavy rain moving into parts of the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast later in the week. Several inches of rain are forecast.
3 to 6 inches will occur from Mississippi and Alabama, north into Tennessee and northern Georgia, Upstate South Carolina and the mountains of North Carolina, Kentuck, and Ohio, and the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated 8 inches cannot be ruled out. This is concerning, especially in Tennessee and North Carolina where recent catastrophic flooding has occurred.
The flood threat will shift from southwest to northeast Monday through Thursday. If you live in a flood-prone area, please be on high alert, and never cross a roadway covered by water.
A quick update on Hurricane Ida. Ida continues to gain strength over the warm Gulf of Mexico waters and is now a category 2 with winds of 100 mph. The hurricane will intensify into a major hurricane today, possibly reaching category 4 strength late today or Sunday.
Hurricane Warnings are in effect for all of southeast Louisiana with Tropical Storm Warnings stretching up into southern Mississippi. Tropical storm conditions are expected this evening with landfall along the Louisiana coast around 7 p.m. Sunday.
Significant storm surge (up to 15 feet), damaging winds (in excess of 130 mph), and flooding rainfall (up to 15 inches) are expected as Ida moves inland.
Ida intensified into a hurricane Friday. Further strengthening is forecast over the weekend with Ida becoming a major hurricane on Saturday. Additional strengthening is expected on Sunday with Ida making landfall as a category 4 hurricane Sunday afternoon. Category 5 status cannot be ruled out. Regardless of category 4 or 5, the impacts will be the same for the Gulf Coast–devastating.
Tropical alerts have been issued for the Gulf Coast from the Texas/Louisiana border to the Alabama/Florida border and will inland to the I-20 corridor in Louisiana and Mississippi. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for most of southern Louisiana, including New Orleans and Baton Rouge. Watch the latest video detailing Ida’s impacts.
Ida will create a large swath of hazards not only for coastal areas but spreading far inland this weekend and next week. Storm surge, heavy rain causing flooding, and strong winds leading to power outages are possible. Here is the latest video forecast detailing the impacts.
Tropical Storm Ida forms in the Caribbean. Ida is a weak tropical storm with winds up to 40 mph. A rather quick intensification is expected late week and over the weekend. Ida is forecast to reach category 2 status Sunday morning, growing into a major category 3 hurricane late Sunday. Landfall is currently expected to occur along the Louisiana coast late Sunday or early Monday as a major category 3 hurricane.
Significant impacts are expected for the north-central Gulf Coast, spreading inland into the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, parts of the Southeast, and parts of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic from early week through the end of the upcoming week.
Tropical Depression Nine forms in the Caribbean Thursday. TD9 will intensify into Tropical Storm Ida later today with further strengthening into a Hurricane forecast by this weekend.
As Ida enters the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, strengthening into at least a Category 2 Hurricane is expected–A Major Hurricane (Category 3, 4, 5) cannot be completely ruled out early-Sunday. It does appear the system will weaken a touch before landfall.
Landfall will occur early Monday in Louisiana based on the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center. A jog east or west is possible so all areas along the northern Gulf Coast need to keep a close eye on the forecast over the coming days. Because of the uncertainty, the upper Texas coast and Mississippi coast are also within the cone.
A low pressure in the Caribbean will develop into a tropical depression over the coming days. This area of low pressure has a high chance (80%) to develop over the next 5 days. Right now, the low pressure is relatively broad and lacking organized thunderstorm activity, but that will change as the low pressure moves into a more favorable environment for development.
The Waverly Department of Public Safety published a list of those who are still unaccounted for after Saturday’s catastrophic flooding in Humphreys County, Tennessee. 22 deaths have been confirmed as of Monday morning.
Residents are urged to call 931-582-6950 or go to McEwen High School if they’ve physically seen or talked to the following people.
The death toll continues to climb Sunday after catastrophic floodwaters swept through Middle Tennessee. As of Sunday, the death toll stands at 22 with dozens of people still missing. The hardest-hit area is Humphreys County, which is just west of Nashville.
Slow-moving summer showers and storms developed Saturday, continuing through much of the day, dumping extremely heavy rainfall. Almost a foot and a half (17 inches of rain in McEwen–Humphreys County) fell in parts of the state leading to devastating flash flooding. This heavy rain sent the Piney River (at Vernon) to a record crest of nearly 32 feet. This surpassed the record by 12 feet (2019).
The recovery efforts are underway as the water begins to recede and intense searches are ongoing to locate dozens of people who are unaccounted for after Saturday’s flood.