A couple of chances for snow enter the forecast for parts of the Carolinas and Tennesee

The weather is changing as we continue to advance through fall and that’s even more evident with snow chances entering the forecast for parts of the Carolinas over the next week. The first chance for quick-hitting snow arrives tonight for the mountains of North Carolina. A strong upper-level low, with quite a bit of dynamic cooling, will allow for the snow levels to fall to around 5,000 feet overnight. So whatever moisture remains, will fall in the form of snow above 5,000 feet. It also appears up to 1 inch of accumulations is possible above 6,000 feet.

Another chance for snow looks possible next weekend. There are still a lot of questions, but another storm system will swing east, pulling in a strong cold front. This will allow temperatures to quickly fall and it appears there will still be enough moisture behind the cold front for a quick bout of snow across the mountains of eastern Tennesse and western North Carolina overnight Friday (November 5) into Saturday morning (November 6). This is over a week out so a lot of changes and fine-tuning are likely, but models are suggesting this is a real possibility. For more details on this possible snow event, click here.

European model Saturday morning (November 6)

Cold weather on the way to eastern parts of the county

A pattern change will deliver colder temperatures to areas east of the Rockies as we start the month of November. This pattern will favor a few cold fronts ushering in colder weather south and east. The latest outlook from the Climate Prediction Center indicates below-average temperatures are expected from November 2-6 for most areas east of the Rockies. The best chance for the below-average temperatures will exist across the Plains. Looking ahead to November 4-10, below-average temperatures are still expected for this region with the best chance for below-average temperatures shifting into the Mid-South and Southeast.

This pattern change has been talked about in our Supporter Group for the past couple of weeks. Join the Firsthand Supporter Group today for details on the cold fronts that will move into eastern parts of the country over the coming weeks!

Get ready for a true taste of fall! Join the Firsthand Supporter Group today!

Severe storms and tornadoes Wednesday for the Gulf Coast States

A severe risk will develop Wednesday afternoon and evening across the Gulf Coast States as a potent cold front races east. Ahead of the cold front, strong to severe storms will develop during the afternoon and evening hours from eastern Texas, Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. The main concern is damaging wind gusts but a few tornadoes are possible too. The highest severe threat is east of I-45 and south of I-20. Find out more details on Wednesday’s severe threat and Thursday’s severe threat as it moves east into Georgia and the Carolinas.

Wednesday’s severe risk

Make sure you keep up-to-date with tomorrow’s forecast if you live in or near an area that is expecting severe weather. Have a plan in place in case a warning is issued for your area.

Nor’easter to slam parts of New England

A developing storm system will wallop parts of New England beginning tonight, continuing through Wednesday. This storm system will really start to ramp up off the coast of New England Tuesday and Wednesday. The strengthening of the system will create some big impacts for coastal and even inland areas across the region.

Storm system off the Northeast Coast

Some of the impacts expected are coastal storm surge and large waves–creating minor beach erosion, heavy rainfall–leading to areas of flooding, and strong winds–that could down trees and create power outages.

One of the largest concerns is the rain that is expected tonight through Wednesday. A widespread 2-5 inches is in the forecast with isolater higher amounts in excess of 7 inches. This will lead to areas of flooding.

Rainfall forecast through Wednesday night

As the low pressure starts to deepen, it will produce strong wind gusts across Long Island and southern and coastal New England Tuesday-Wednesday. Wind gusts up to 60 mph are possible. This will down trees and cause some power outages.

Max wind gust forecast through Wednesday night

Large waves will also smack coastal areas. This paired with a higher storm surge due to the northeast winds piling water onshore will cause coastal eroison.

Max wave height forecast through Wednesday night

A prolonged period of severe weather is on the way

An active severe weather period is expected over the next 5 days. Each day from Saturday (October 23) through Wednesday (October 27) will have a chance for severe storms. All modes of severe weather are expected. This includes tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. It appears Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday are days that could feature higher severe weather chances with a higher probability of tornadoes.

See the images below for the severe weather chances over the next several days. Light green (general thunderstorms), dark green (marginal severe risk–level 1 of 5), yellow (slight risk–level 2 of 5), and orange (enhanced risk–level 3 of 5). It is possible upgrades are required over the coming days.

Saturday severe risk
Sunday severe risk
Monday severe risk
Tuesday severe risk
Wednesday severe risk

NOAA releases its 2021-2022 Winter Outlook

NOAA released its 2021-2022 Winter Outlook today. The forecast aligns with what climatologically happens during La Nina years. Above-average temperatures are forecast for much of the country with the highest chance for above-average temperatures across the Gulf States and Carolinas. Below-average temperatures are forecast across the Pacific & Inland Northwest into the Northern Rockies. Alaska is also forecast to experience below-average temperatures. Join the Firsthand Weather Supporter Group today!

Precipitation is forecast to be below average across the Southwest, parts of the Southern Plains, and along the Gulf Coast into the Carolinas. Farther north, above-average precipitation is forecast from the Tennessee Valley into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. The Pacific & Inland Northwest into the Northern Rockies can expect above-average precipitation. Join the Firsthand Weather Supporter Group today!

It should be noted: this is NOAA’s Winter Outlook. This is not Firsthand Weather’s Winter Outlook. FHW’s official outlook drops very soon so stay tuned! Join the Firsthand Weather Supporter Group today!

“Superbomb” storm in northeast Pacific

An interesting weather event is forecast to evolve in the northeastern Pacific over the next 24-48 hours. The remnants of Tropical Storm Namtheun are in the process of converting into an extratropical storm system in the northern Pacific. This process will continue on Wednesday and Thursday and the system will rapidly deepen and intensify.

The system will intensify so much that the central pressure is forecast to drop to 950 mb or lower. This is a greater than 48 mb drop in barometric pressure in a short period of time. Because of such a quick drop in pressure during the intensifcation process, this system will become what is known as a superbomb cyclone late Wednesday. This occurs when a storm system observes a drop in pressure of at least 48 mb within a 24 hour period.

European 850 hPa Wind Speeds in knots (WeatherModels.com)
European 500hPa Geopotential Height (WeatherModels.com)

This storm is forecast to bring impacts to parts of British Columbia and Alaska late this week.

Los Angeles & SoCal rain

Light rain showers and patchy drizzle are in the forecast for SoCal tonight and Monday morning. The precipitation is expected to begin after midnight and continue a couple of hours after sunrise for coastal parts of SoCal. This includes Los Angeles, Long Beach, and San Diego.

Here is the simulated radar over the next several hours.

Simulated radar

Amounts are forecast to be light. Most areas will see less than one-tenth of an inch, however, spot areas could see up to a quarter of an inch of rain by midday Monday.

Rainfall forecast

This will make for a slippery commute. Give yourself extra time on the roadways.

Frost Advisory issued for parts of the Southeast and Carolinas

A chilly night is in the forecast for the South, Southeast, Tennessee Valley, and Carolinas. Temperatures will fall into the 40s with quite a few areas dipping into the 30s. The 30s are most likely across Tennessee, northern Mississippi, northern and central Alabama, northern Georgia, Upstate South Carolina, and the mountains and western North Carolina. This is where temperatures will fall between 33 and 39 degrees tonight. Join the Firsthand Weather Supporter Group today!

Fig. 1: Monday morning temperatures

Taking a deeper dive into the temperatures tonight, here is a look at more localized temperatures across northern Georgia and the Carolinas tonight.

Fig. 2: Monday morning temperatures for north Georgia
Fig. 3: Monday morning temperatures for the Carolinas

Because of the temperatures falling into the 30s, Frost Advisories have been issued for northeastern Georgia, western Tennessee, and the mountains of North Carolina tonight and early Monday morning. Frost is also possible outside of the Frost Advisory for the aforementioned areas that will fall into the 30s. Make sure you protect sensitive vegetation. Here is a look at the Frost Advisory (areas shaded in blue). Join the Firsthand Weather Supporter Group today!

Frost Advisory

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Chilly air moving into the South & Southeast

The much anticipated cold front is racing through the Southeast this afternoon. Behind the cold front, drier and cooler air is surging south. This will lead to pleasant afternoons over the next couple of days with highs in the 60s & 70s and chilly mornings. Lows will fall into the 40s for many areas with a few upper-30s for Tennesse, northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, northern Georgia, and western North Carolina. Enjoy and bundle up!

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