Eyeing the potential for a couple of big severe weather days, including tornadoes

Fall is historically the second severe weather season, and there is the potential for a couple of high-impact weather days over the next week. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted Sunday, October 10, and Tuesday, October 12 as two days for severe thunderstorms across the Southern Plains. All modes of severe weather are possible. This includes tornadoes, hail, and wind. The severe threat may shift east into the Tennessee Valley, South, and Southeast later next week. Get the detailed forecast here.

Sunday, October 10 severe weather potential
Tuesday, October 12 severe weather potential

If you’re in these areas, keep an eye on the forecast over the coming days and have a severe weather plan in place.

Flooding is likely today for parts of the Southeast

It’s been a wet start to the workweek and the rain will continue today across parts of the Southeast, Tennessee Valley, and Carolinas. Some of the rain will be heavy with an additional 2-4 inches possible over the next 24 hours. Isolated 6-8 cannot be ruled out. The heaviest rain will fall across the Florida Panhandle, northeastern Alabama, central and eastern Tennesee, northern Georgia, Upstate South Carolina, and the mountains of North Carolina. Join the Firsthand Weather Supporter Group for additional forecasts and exclusive weather information.

Rainfall forecast

The aforementioned areas that have a chance to see the heaviest rain have a moderate risk (level 3 of 4) for flash flooding today. There’s a lower, but still substantial, risk for flash flooding outside of the moderate risk area. (Red depicts the moderate risk, yellow depicts the slight risk, and the green depicts the marginal risk).

Flash flood risk

There is a Flash Flood Watch (dark green) for the entire day across the Florida Panhandle, Alabama, southern and central Tennesee, northern Georgia, Upstate South Carolina, and southwestern North Carolina.

Flash Flood Watch

Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon across this region. While the threat is low, there is a low-end tornado and damaging wind threat.

Winter makes an appearance across parts of the country next week while warmth dominates other areas

Whether you love warmth or cold, we’ll have in across the lower-48 next week. A highly amplified weather pattern next week will deliver below-average temperatures to the western half of the country while eastern areas will experience above-average temperatures. Find out more about this weather pattern and why it’s establishing itself next week.

The cool shaded colors (blue) depict below-average temperatures while the warm shaded colors (red) depict above-average temperatures.

Fig. 1: Temperature departure from average forecast next week

Along with the cooler temperatures out west, an active weather pattern will lead to above-average precipitation while areas east of the Mississippi River will have near to below-average precipitation.

The green colors depict above-average precipitation while the brown colors depict below-average precipitation.

Fig. 2: Precipitation departure from average forecast next week

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Flooding is possible this week across the South & Southeast

A slow-moving cold front will deliver rounds of showers and storms to the South & Southeast this week, extending into the Tennessee Valley & Carolinas. The heavy rain threat will slowly shift from west to east from Monday through Wednesday as the cold front seeps eastward.

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Over the next 72-hours, a widespread 2-4 inches of rain can be expected from eastern Mississippi, the Florida Panhandle, Alabama, central and eastern Tennessee, central and northern Georgia, and the western half of South and North Carolina. Isolated 5-8 inches cannot be ruled out across northern Georgia, the southwestern mountains of North Carolina, and Upstate South Carolina.

72-hour Southeast rainfall forecast (WeatherModels.com)

Rainfall this heavy may lead to areas of flooding. Flash Flood Watches have been issued for most of Alabama, southern Tennessee, the Florida Panhandle, and the northern half of Georgia. The Flash Flood Watch will likely get extended into the Carolinas later today. If you live in a flood-prone area, keep a close eye on the forecast over the coming days. Never attempt to cross a roadway covered by water.

Flash Flood Watches (PivotalWeather.com)

Get more details and hyper-local rainfall maps here.

Firsthand Weather is also monitoring the possibility of a tropical system developing off the Southeast coast. Read more about this system.

A tropical depression may form off the Southeast coast this week

Firsthand Weather is monitoring a broad area of low pressure over the Bahamas. Showers and storms are associated with this broad low pressure, but the system remains unorganized. Some slight organization is possible with this system this week as it moves northwest.

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The National Hurricane Center gives this system a low chance for development this week. Right now the odds are at 20% but this may increase over the coming days as the system moves over the warm Gulf Stream.

Find out what other factors will influence the development of this system and what impacts the Southeast Coast can expect.

If you live along the Southeast Coast, keep an eye on the forecast over the coming days.

Heavy rain and flooding are possible for parts of the Southeast and Carolinas

A couple of storm systems will deliver a wet weather pattern to parts of the Southeast and Carolinas this upcoming week. The heavy rain will also extend into the Tennessee Valley and Mid-Atlantic. A widespread 2-6 inches is in the forecast from early week through the end of the upcoming week that will lead to spot areas of flash flooding.

Get the detailed forecast on the storms systems and timing in the Supporter Group.

7-day rainfall forecast (PivotalWeather.com)
7-day rainfall forecast (PivotalWeather.com)

Make sure you have the umbrella handy and be alert if you live in a flood-prone area. As always, never cross a road covered by water.

Another 2021-2022 Winter Outlook

Another day, another winter outlook. Accuweather released its 2021-2022 U.S. Winter Forecast this week. The outlook is calling for a busy winter from coast to coast with some similarities to last winter.

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The reason for the similarities is due to La Niña. La Niña can be a big driving factor during the winter months across the U.S. and that is forecast to be the same this season based on this winter outlook. This forecast from Accuweather is predicting a weather polar vortex that may allow for big Arctic air masses to push into the lower-48.

Accuweather’s Winter Outlook

Two other publications have recently released winter outlooks.

Click here to see the Farmers’ Almanac Winter Outlook.

Click here to read the Old Farmer’s Almanac Winter Outlook.

This is Accuweather’s winter forecast, not Firsthand Weather’s. Firsthand Weather’s official 2021-22 Winter Outlook will be released in the coming weeks.

A sign of the times and changing seasons: SNOW

Man Digging Out Of Snowstorm

It is a sign of the times and of the changing seasons. The storm track starts to dip farther south and becomes more active. This is when the first flakes start to fall in the higher elevations across the western states, and this is exactly what we will see over the next several days. Some of the higher peaks across the Pacific & Inland Northwest and Interior West will see light accumulations among the highest peaks. This is great news given the latest drought conditions and a promising sight for ski resorts.

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Fig. 1: Northwest snow forecast over the next several days (WeatherModels.com)
Fig. 2: Southwest snow forecast over the next several days (WeatherModels.com)

Some of the heaviest snow from mid-week through the upcoming weekend will actually fall across New Mexico and Colorado. Several inches of snow are forecast above 10,000 feet. It is possible the rain/snow line may fall down to around 9,000 feet but significant accumulations are not expected that low.

Fig. 3: Colorado & New Mexico snow forecast over the next several days (WeatherModels.com)

It’s just a matter of time before the first chance for snow arrives in most forecasts as the days grow shorter and colder!

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Cold air damming event possible

Eyeing the potential for a cold air damming event later this upcoming week into next weekend. There are signals that a favorable pattern for such an event will deliver another taste of fall to parts of the Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas, and Southeast. These events are known for delivering below-average temperatures to areas east of the spine of the Appalachians. See all the details on this event and how cold those temperatures may get.

Temperatures (just above the surface) departure from average. (Courtesy WeatherModels.com)

The timeframe is from Friday through Sunday. There are still uncertainties with this forecast and this potential setup will continue to be monitored over the coming days.

A strong cold front will deliver a chill to the air

A potent cold front will work its way through the eastern half of the country over the next 24 to 48 hours. This cold front will deliver the coldest air of the season to many areas, dropping temperatures below average from Thursday through Saturday. The most noticeably cool air will be felt during the overnight and morning hours with some areas experiencing a frost. See how low the temperatures will go!

Below-average temperatures to end the week (Graphic: Local Memphis)

Along with cooler temperatures, there will be a noticeable reduction in humidity, allowing for comfortable afternoons. This will set the stage for great high school and college football weather to end the week and this weekend.

Get the firewood and pumpkin spice creamer ready!