We are not finished with the impacts from Ida. Ida will continue to be felt over the coming days as it moves north, followed by a northeast movement. The current forecast calls for Ida to remain a tropical depression as it moves from the South into the Tennessee Valley and Mid-Atlantic from early to mid-week.
The wind threat will decrease as Ida moves inland but the flood threat will increase. A swath of heavy rainfall is expected from the South into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys from early to mid-week, followed by heavy rain moving into parts of the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast later in the week. Several inches of rain are forecast.
3 to 6 inches will occur from Mississippi and Alabama, north into Tennessee and northern Georgia, Upstate South Carolina and the mountains of North Carolina, Kentuck, and Ohio, and the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated 8 inches cannot be ruled out. This is concerning, especially in Tennessee and North Carolina where recent catastrophic flooding has occurred.
The flood threat will shift from southwest to northeast Monday through Thursday. If you live in a flood-prone area, please be on high alert, and never cross a roadway covered by water.
A quick update on Hurricane Ida. Ida continues to gain strength over the warm Gulf of Mexico waters and is now a category 2 with winds of 100 mph. The hurricane will intensify into a major hurricane today, possibly reaching category 4 strength late today or Sunday.
Hurricane Warnings are in effect for all of southeast Louisiana with Tropical Storm Warnings stretching up into southern Mississippi. Tropical storm conditions are expected this evening with landfall along the Louisiana coast around 7 p.m. Sunday.
Significant storm surge (up to 15 feet), damaging winds (in excess of 130 mph), and flooding rainfall (up to 15 inches) are expected as Ida moves inland.
Ida intensified into a hurricane Friday. Further strengthening is forecast over the weekend with Ida becoming a major hurricane on Saturday. Additional strengthening is expected on Sunday with Ida making landfall as a category 4 hurricane Sunday afternoon. Category 5 status cannot be ruled out. Regardless of category 4 or 5, the impacts will be the same for the Gulf Coast–devastating.
Tropical alerts have been issued for the Gulf Coast from the Texas/Louisiana border to the Alabama/Florida border and will inland to the I-20 corridor in Louisiana and Mississippi. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for most of southern Louisiana, including New Orleans and Baton Rouge. Watch the latest video detailing Ida’s impacts.
Ida will create a large swath of hazards not only for coastal areas but spreading far inland this weekend and next week. Storm surge, heavy rain causing flooding, and strong winds leading to power outages are possible. Here is the latest video forecast detailing the impacts.
Tropical Storm Ida forms in the Caribbean. Ida is a weak tropical storm with winds up to 40 mph. A rather quick intensification is expected late week and over the weekend. Ida is forecast to reach category 2 status Sunday morning, growing into a major category 3 hurricane late Sunday. Landfall is currently expected to occur along the Louisiana coast late Sunday or early Monday as a major category 3 hurricane.
Significant impacts are expected for the north-central Gulf Coast, spreading inland into the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, parts of the Southeast, and parts of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic from early week through the end of the upcoming week.
Tropical Depression Nine forms in the Caribbean Thursday. TD9 will intensify into Tropical Storm Ida later today with further strengthening into a Hurricane forecast by this weekend.
As Ida enters the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, strengthening into at least a Category 2 Hurricane is expected–A Major Hurricane (Category 3, 4, 5) cannot be completely ruled out early-Sunday. It does appear the system will weaken a touch before landfall.
Landfall will occur early Monday in Louisiana based on the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center. A jog east or west is possible so all areas along the northern Gulf Coast need to keep a close eye on the forecast over the coming days. Because of the uncertainty, the upper Texas coast and Mississippi coast are also within the cone.
A low pressure in the Caribbean will develop into a tropical depression over the coming days. This area of low pressure has a high chance (80%) to develop over the next 5 days. Right now, the low pressure is relatively broad and lacking organized thunderstorm activity, but that will change as the low pressure moves into a more favorable environment for development.
Henri has continued to strengthen off the East Coast and is now a category 1 hurricane with winds of 75 mph. The hurricane is now rapidly moving north-northeast.
Additional intensification is expected tonight before landfall occurs on Long Island or southern New England late Sunday as a category 1 hurricane. The system will then move over the Northeast and back over the Atlantic, skirting the coast of Maine, early-week.
Because of the forecast track and expected impacts, southern New England and Long Island are under a Hurricane Warning. There is also a Tropical Storm Warning for areas farther west and inland, including New York City.
A significant storm surge is expected as Henri approaches tonight and Sunday. The greatest storm surge will occur from Long Island into coastal Rhode Island and Massachusetts where a storm surge of 3 to 5 feet is expected. Significant coastal flooding will occur.
Heavy rain will fall across the Northeast tonight, Sunday, and early next week. The heaviest rain will fall in New England where 3 to 6 inches of rain is forecast. Isolated higher amounts are possible.
A rather cool storm system will bring the first flakes of the season to parts of the west over the next 36-hours. Peaks in Montana, Wyoming, Utah, and Colorado can expect snow, some of which will accumulate.
The first flakes will begin to fly tonight in Montana with the flakes eventually falling in Wyoming, Utah, and Colorado by Thursday. By the time the flakes stop flying, accumulations are expected. The best chance for accumulations will be above 10,000 feet where a few inches will fall. A light dusting is possible down to 9,000 feet with the rain/snow line as far down as 8,000 feet.
While August snow is not unheard of in August for these areas, it is not a frequent occurrence this early in the season. Snow becomes more common in September for these areas.
This is just an early reminder that fall and winter are right around the corner!
There is now a high tornado risk for parts of North Carolina and South Carolina this afternoon and evening per the Storm Prediction Center. The threat is due to Tropical Depression Fred continuing to move inland across the Southeast. Areas to the east of Fred’s center all have a risk for tornadoes over the next few hours.
There is a Tornado Watch in effect for most areas within the tornado risk area until 7 p.m. This is generally for Counties along and west of I-77.
Tropical Depression Fred is moving north into northern Georgia Tuesday. While the system has weakened over inland, its impacts are far from over, and the impacts will continue to impact eastern parts of the country throughout the week.
To the east of the center of Fred, there’s a tornado risk throughout the day Tuesday from northeastern Georgia, central and western South Carolina, central and western North Carolina, southwestern Virginia, and southern West Virginia. A few quick spin-up tropical tornadoes are likely in this region Tuesday afternoon and evening. These tornadoes can cause damage and often develop with little warning so please be very weather aware Tuesday.
Fred will continue to track north throughout Tuesday and through the end of the week–moving from the Southeast Tuesday into New England by the end of the week.
The main concern with Fred as it moves north is the heavy rain near and east of the center. The heaviest rain will fall Tuesday and Wednesday from northern Georgia, eastern Tennessee, upstate South Carolina, eastern Kentucky, southern West Virginia, and western Virginia.
This is where the highest flash flood risk exists Tuesday. There is a moderate and high flash flood risk Tuesday afternoon and evening for the aforementioned areas.