Parts of Hawaii are under a Blizzard Warning

You read that right. A Blizzard Warning is in effect for parts of Hawaii as a potent Pacific winter storm system slams the state. Heavy precipitation is expected to fall across all of Hawaii where Flood Watches have been issued. Higher in elevation, though, there will be enough cold air for heavy snow to fall. The heavy snow will be wind-driven by 100 mph wind gusts. Because of the snow and wind, a Blizzard Warning has been issued for the highest peaks of the Big Island. Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea peaks could see up to one foot of snow. Join the Firsthand Weather Supporter Group!

Blizzard Warning for Hawaii (courtesy: CBS Denver)

The Blizzard Warning goes into effect this evening and continues into Sunday morning. Snow is not unheard of in Hawaii. The highest peaks do usually see snow during the cold months, but 12 inches is quite a bit!

See the latest winter outlooks below.

Read the NOAA Winter Outlook here.

Read the AccuWeather Winter Outlook here.

Read the Farmers’ Almanac here.

Read the Old Farmer’s Almanac here.

Coastal low to impact parts of the Southeast and Carolinas

A non-tropical area of low pressure is developing in the Gulf of Mexico. This low will race east tonight and will move across Florida Friday. The area of low pressure will bring wind and rain to Florida with a low-end risk for tornadoes. By the weekend, the low will move off the Southeast Coast, bringing areas of heavy rain and gusty winds to southern and coastal Georgia, and coastal South Carolina and North Carolina this weekend. Join the Firsthand Weather Supporter Group today!

2-5 inches of rain is expected for Florida with parts of Georgia and the Carolinas receiving 1-3 inches of rain, leading to areas of flash flooding. This could change depending on the intensity and track of the low.

Gusty winds are also expected for these areas. Winds will gust up to 35 or 40 mph near the coast. Join the Firsthand Weather Supporter Group today!

Once the low pressure moves off the Southeast Coast this weekend, it’ll tap into some energy with the warm Gulf Stream, allowing it to intensify and possibly acquire some tropical characteristics. This window is small but will be monitored. Join the Firsthand Weather Supporter Group today!

There are still some questions about the intensity and track of this low. If the low tracks closer to the coast of the Carolinas, impacts will be realized farther inland for the Southeast. If the low is farther out-to-sea, then only Florida and coastal areas of the Southeast will see impacts. Join the Firsthand Weather Supporter Group today!

Tornadoes can a do occur in November, the South is particularly favored

As we begin focusing on the first frost and freeze of the season, and even the first flakes for some areas, it is important to remember that severe weather can and does still occur in November–despite average temperatures quickly decreasing throughout the month. Fall and winter storm systems in a hyper-active jet stream that plunges south provide cold, Canadian air masses clashing with warm, Gulf air masses. This leads to big-time thunderstorms, producing tornadoes from the Southern Plains into the South and Southeast. The tornado threat does extend farther north, however, into the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Great Lakes. Even the western states see a few tornadoes as potent storms roll in off the Pacific. Join the Firsthand Weather Supporter Group today.

November tornadoes, courtesy of the Weather Channel and James Wilson

It is important to keep a close eye on the forecast for severe thunderstorms that may enter your forecast. Have a few reliable resources to receive warnings from and have a plan in place in case a warning is issued for your area.

Nor’easter to slam parts of New England

A developing storm system will wallop parts of New England beginning tonight, continuing through Wednesday. This storm system will really start to ramp up off the coast of New England Tuesday and Wednesday. The strengthening of the system will create some big impacts for coastal and even inland areas across the region.

Storm system off the Northeast Coast

Some of the impacts expected are coastal storm surge and large waves–creating minor beach erosion, heavy rainfall–leading to areas of flooding, and strong winds–that could down trees and create power outages.

One of the largest concerns is the rain that is expected tonight through Wednesday. A widespread 2-5 inches is in the forecast with isolater higher amounts in excess of 7 inches. This will lead to areas of flooding.

Rainfall forecast through Wednesday night

As the low pressure starts to deepen, it will produce strong wind gusts across Long Island and southern and coastal New England Tuesday-Wednesday. Wind gusts up to 60 mph are possible. This will down trees and cause some power outages.

Max wind gust forecast through Wednesday night

Large waves will also smack coastal areas. This paired with a higher storm surge due to the northeast winds piling water onshore will cause coastal eroison.

Max wave height forecast through Wednesday night

NOAA releases its 2021-2022 Winter Outlook

NOAA released its 2021-2022 Winter Outlook today. The forecast aligns with what climatologically happens during La Nina years. Above-average temperatures are forecast for much of the country with the highest chance for above-average temperatures across the Gulf States and Carolinas. Below-average temperatures are forecast across the Pacific & Inland Northwest into the Northern Rockies. Alaska is also forecast to experience below-average temperatures. Join the Firsthand Weather Supporter Group today!

Precipitation is forecast to be below average across the Southwest, parts of the Southern Plains, and along the Gulf Coast into the Carolinas. Farther north, above-average precipitation is forecast from the Tennessee Valley into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. The Pacific & Inland Northwest into the Northern Rockies can expect above-average precipitation. Join the Firsthand Weather Supporter Group today!

It should be noted: this is NOAA’s Winter Outlook. This is not Firsthand Weather’s Winter Outlook. FHW’s official outlook drops very soon so stay tuned! Join the Firsthand Weather Supporter Group today!

“Superbomb” storm in northeast Pacific

An interesting weather event is forecast to evolve in the northeastern Pacific over the next 24-48 hours. The remnants of Tropical Storm Namtheun are in the process of converting into an extratropical storm system in the northern Pacific. This process will continue on Wednesday and Thursday and the system will rapidly deepen and intensify.

The system will intensify so much that the central pressure is forecast to drop to 950 mb or lower. This is a greater than 48 mb drop in barometric pressure in a short period of time. Because of such a quick drop in pressure during the intensifcation process, this system will become what is known as a superbomb cyclone late Wednesday. This occurs when a storm system observes a drop in pressure of at least 48 mb within a 24 hour period.

European 850 hPa Wind Speeds in knots (WeatherModels.com)
European 500hPa Geopotential Height (WeatherModels.com)

This storm is forecast to bring impacts to parts of British Columbia and Alaska late this week.

Increasing chance for tropical development off the coast of the Carolinas this weekend

A low pressure off the coast of the Carolinas has a medium chance to develop over the weekend into a subtropical or tropical depression or storm. The low pressure has started to slowly gather strength and organization over the past 24 hours. It appears the environmental conditions are growing increasingly conducive for development this weekend. The system will not ramp up quickly, so if it develops, it should remain weak. Regardless, impacts are possible for the Carolinas. See the expected impacts here.

Chance for tropical development this weekend (WLTX)

Flooding is possible this week across the South & Southeast

A slow-moving cold front will deliver rounds of showers and storms to the South & Southeast this week, extending into the Tennessee Valley & Carolinas. The heavy rain threat will slowly shift from west to east from Monday through Wednesday as the cold front seeps eastward.

Join the Firsthand Weather Supporter Group today!

Over the next 72-hours, a widespread 2-4 inches of rain can be expected from eastern Mississippi, the Florida Panhandle, Alabama, central and eastern Tennessee, central and northern Georgia, and the western half of South and North Carolina. Isolated 5-8 inches cannot be ruled out across northern Georgia, the southwestern mountains of North Carolina, and Upstate South Carolina.

72-hour Southeast rainfall forecast (WeatherModels.com)

Rainfall this heavy may lead to areas of flooding. Flash Flood Watches have been issued for most of Alabama, southern Tennessee, the Florida Panhandle, and the northern half of Georgia. The Flash Flood Watch will likely get extended into the Carolinas later today. If you live in a flood-prone area, keep a close eye on the forecast over the coming days. Never attempt to cross a roadway covered by water.

Flash Flood Watches (PivotalWeather.com)

Get more details and hyper-local rainfall maps here.

Firsthand Weather is also monitoring the possibility of a tropical system developing off the Southeast coast. Read more about this system.

A tropical depression may form off the Southeast coast this week

Firsthand Weather is monitoring a broad area of low pressure over the Bahamas. Showers and storms are associated with this broad low pressure, but the system remains unorganized. Some slight organization is possible with this system this week as it moves northwest.

Join the Firsthand Weather Supporter Group today.

The National Hurricane Center gives this system a low chance for development this week. Right now the odds are at 20% but this may increase over the coming days as the system moves over the warm Gulf Stream.

Find out what other factors will influence the development of this system and what impacts the Southeast Coast can expect.

If you live along the Southeast Coast, keep an eye on the forecast over the coming days.

Heavy rain and flooding are possible for parts of the Southeast and Carolinas

A couple of storm systems will deliver a wet weather pattern to parts of the Southeast and Carolinas this upcoming week. The heavy rain will also extend into the Tennessee Valley and Mid-Atlantic. A widespread 2-6 inches is in the forecast from early week through the end of the upcoming week that will lead to spot areas of flash flooding.

Get the detailed forecast on the storms systems and timing in the Supporter Group.

7-day rainfall forecast (PivotalWeather.com)
7-day rainfall forecast (PivotalWeather.com)

Make sure you have the umbrella handy and be alert if you live in a flood-prone area. As always, never cross a road covered by water.